Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer been watching how you do for a while mate, iv always said the same thing about how i would trade them. Are you doing any of the following:

Current season only data
at least 10 games worth of current season played, always are upsets early season its why small teams can be near top because teams need time to gel together, united under fergie were prime examples of this.
key players
in play stats/watching the game?
Prices, this is the biggest thing i see with these, the prices are normally still rather large to lay compared to overall strike rate

iv been building a comeback strategy that im paper testing and its really got me thinking about this type of trade.

[Richard Latimer]

Not much of a chance to get on tomorrows Japanese games so naturaly I hope they all lose haha!! No, just incase any members have money on, good luck:

[Richard Latimer]

The most damning thing is, and something I'm determined to put right after 3 decent months, I've wiped out all that profit and a little bit more in just Sept, Oct and 2 days of Nov.

Some of it can easily be put down to errors, lack of concentration and focus etc....Getting distracted by things that may work and ignoring what did work. Others can be put down to me changing the way I played the ELO's after seeing what others had done. Some of it I'm sure can be put down to this damn pandemic (never seen so many crazy results as recently).

Whatever it is though, now is the time to turn it around. I can still have a great (good maybe) Nov, it's only just under 5pts but the clock is ticking.

[Richard Latimer]

After going back to concentrating on my ELO I have had the worst start possible and find myself down over 5pts in 2 days. Couldn't make this s**t up.

[Richard Latimer]

Back for another day of punishment:

Ecuador doesn't have the best of history on these so this will be one to watch. If inplay stats support the comeback I may get involved.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for today:

I missed the first as for some reason when I saw it was 2-0 after I got up late I thought it was already over. 2-2 now. Good start in terms of data anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm going to start looking at ratings again. If they can provide such an excellent strat as the ELO they can do the same for goals. Through looking at various successful filters and also thinking logically about 2 criteria I could use it's home offence and goal expectation.

A quick glance at what could have been today and my interest has piqued.

[Richard Latimer]

See you later October. You started off like a train but in the end I'm glad to see the back of you. More red today.

I see Lee Woodman reports a poor month on his main filter so while no one likes to see anyone lose it's heartening that this can happen to the best filters.

For Nov I'm thinking I should concentrate solely on the ELO. Getting back to ways of green. I'm never going to give up searching for something else but this is hurting my bank balance at the moment and it needs to stop.

[Richard Latimer]

After another mistake and that poor result with Porto tonight I'm now down almost 4pts for Oct. It's going to to take a monumental push to get back in the green for tomorrow and I prob can't do it with family commitments.

Still have high hopes for the 2nd half LTD filter. Just need to cut out the mistakes.

In terms of the ELO, a small change to the way I will be playing it. Home lays will only be taken at 1-0 where as away lays will continue to be taken at 1-2, 2-3 etc...

At 2-0 or 0-2 I will still re-lay but this is going back to my initial idea as nothing more than a potential route of escape. Most good teams are able to get one back and from that I can simply get out whether that be small red or small green. It worked for a year so why change it.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

Oh yeah and I took the dog with me to run an errand. He was misbehaving and subsequently I missed out on the HSV game which was 1-2 for no more than 2 minutes.

[Richard Latimer]

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

[Richard Latimer]

Much ELO potential for tomorrow:

The ones without any colour coding are not qualifiers for this. They just have a good comeback rating and I want track them for a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Unless Parana qualifies in a bit it was just the one loser on ELO's today.

Also hit 2 losers on my 2nd half goal filter despite it being a 50/50 split day (missed the first 2 which won):

For tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

So so day. Should have been fairly exceptional but a couple of nasty ones at either end of the day spoilt things somewhat. Tomorrows:

Really only Belarus I'd be unsure of there.

[Richard Latimer]

Another mega list to be sorted through:

Todays were a bit indifferent although no real loss. Hopefully find some form with these.

I made some good green on the 2nd half filter but then luckily stopped while I was ahead as hit a few losses after that. That being said I missed a load this morning and a couple in the afternoon so swings and roundabouts.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the leagues I'm more confident of in terms of consistency. Wouldn't normally include League 2 in that but then they don't normally play at 13:00 for the TV cameras.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.

[Richard Latimer]

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.