Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Potential LTD's/LCS:
I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.
Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.
Nothing even close tomorrow. Give me more chance to look at all the other stuff I'm working on.
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Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Big letdown tonight after the reliable Kawasaki Frontale had given such a good start.
Germany Bundesliga looking poor for the BOGOF's. Seems there's now a few leagues to avoid. Can't be helped.
On the JOFFS it was the turn of Switzerland's top league to go into my bad books. They've been there before to be fair so it's not a massive surprise. Will be avoiding them until the stats suggest otherwise.
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Already posted Real Potosi earlier but here's another reminder along with potentials for tomorrow (LTD - JOFFS):
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Wed BOGOF's:
PSG qualify but I'm dumping that league for now. They've let me down too much already.
Kawasaki Frontale have already won by a distance but they're still putting up some big numbers!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:
Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero
3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.
If only they were all so easy!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:
Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero
3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:
Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
New day tomorrow (or today even):
Putting away the over 2.5 SHG for now (still tracking). Initial s/r has gone down a little (as is to be expected at those odds) and it's not what I need in terms of bank building right now. I believe the 2 entry points being over 3.5 pre-game and over 1.5 SHG should be a more stable journey with less bumps on the road. Some good games for tomorrow so we will see.
Important to note that while initial results have settled down from the crazy high I saw immediately they are still decent and more than good enough to make a healthy profit should that be where things end up longterm.
61% on over 3.5 @ ave odds 2.00 (that's bookie price - betfair will be higher in most cases) plus knowing 1-0 or 0-1 is an easy exit route for only minimal red as opposed to the high likelihood that entry losing.
71% on over 1.5 SHG (ave bookie odds 1.6 and in most cases betfair will be higher) should provide a good 10-15% yield over time if it continues in that manner).
May do similar with the over 3.5 and concentrate on the H2 plays. Was good in that respect until PSG stunk it up. France seems to be almost as bad for this as the prem.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
LTD (JO.F.F.S.):
None qualified past 70 today other than an Ecuadorian loser. Hope for better today.
Longterm it may be best to enter after 59mins (s/r extremely high removing a couple of poor leagues and some crazy odds) but for now I'm being cautious so will stay on point for 69mins (70th minute) Odds are manageable and my strike rate is still incredibly good thus far.
Only one qualifier beyond 70 today and just the one more beyond 60. Both winners. I really want to find a way to use more of these than the few that slip into the 2nd half drawing.
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LTD (JO.F.F.S.):
None qualified past 70 today other than an Ecuadorian loser. Hope for better today.
Longterm it may be best to enter after 59mins (s/r extremely high removing a couple of poor leagues and some crazy odds) but for now I'm being cautious so will stay on point for 69mins (70th minute) Odds are manageable and my strike rate is still incredibly good thus far.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
New day tomorrow (or today even):
Putting away the over 2.5 SHG for now (still tracking). Initial s/r has gone down a little (as is to be expected at those odds) and it's not what I need in terms of bank building right now. I believe the 2 entry points being over 3.5 pre-game and over 1.5 SHG should be a more stable journey with less bumps on the road. Some good games for tomorrow so we will see.
Important to note that while initial results have settled down from the crazy high I saw immediately they are still decent and more than good enough to make a healthy profit should that be where things end up longterm.
61% on over 3.5 @ ave odds 2.00 (that's bookie price - betfair will be higher in most cases) plus knowing 1-0 or 0-1 is an easy exit route for only minimal red as opposed to the high likelihood that entry losing.
71% on over 1.5 SHG (ave bookie odds 1.6 and in most cases betfair will be higher) should provide a good 10-15% yield over time if it continues in that manner).
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Who'd have thought, Ajax would spoil the day at 3-0 in the first half!? At least they somehow managed a fourth so it wasn't a full loss. Disappointing day.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Hearts winning 2-0 @ HT so on course there. Unfortunately liquidity is dreadful for the over/under 3.5 market!
Very annoying 3-0 within a minute of HT and liquidity nowhere to be seen. Think that spells the end of using 3pm championship games as what's the point. Hope to at least get the win for initial trade.
Hearts a winner if only for 1pt.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Hearts winning 2-0 @ HT so on course there. Unfortunately liquidity is dreadful for the over/under 3.5 market!
Very annoying 3-0 within a minute of HT and liquidity nowhere to be seen. Think that spells the end of using 3pm championship games as what's the point. Hope to at least get the win for initial trade.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Hearts winning 2-0 @ HT so on course there. Unfortunately liquidity is dreadful for the over/under 3.5 market!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The Dortmund win is in.
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Silkeborg a loser but saved some cash by reddiing out of over 3.5 trade @ HT.
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2x 0-0 in the ltd. One for yesterday and one to start today. Overall s/r still over 80%.
Been trying to look at the impact of leagues but nowhere near enough data as yet to make any decisions.
