Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Potentially Leipzig, Gladbach & Basel if odds come down. Think I'll stay away from Odd in this one as they have nothing to play for.

[Richard Latimer]

the same filter, as I'm looking at different way to exploit it. May back over 2.5 on home faves under evens, odds dependent, 22 minutes in with the idea to remove red after first goal:

[Richard Latimer]

JOFFS:

Had Basel on the list but I think it's the weakest of the lot and already had a recent loss in that league so just tracking that one. Had a quick look at over 1.5% for H2 and it's only at 45%.

[Richard Latimer]

Playing it safe with the BOGOFS:

Only going to take the Norwegian and Bolivian games on as this is the first in India and NI. May take all 3 entries though.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Potential LTD's/LCS:

I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

That's some incredible stats and should be very profitable if sustainable.

fingers crossed. It's normally when I start talking about something it crashes and burns haha! What I'm doing at the moment is using one filter and looking at all the different directions it could take me in rather than trying to spread myself too thin.

Concentrating on overall goal averages, home team averages across both halves and home odds mainly. Figure the home team is meant to be the team to come out and dictate the play so their averages are more likely to remain stable than the away team which could go up and down. It's a theory.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Potential LTD's/LCS:

I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

That's some incredible stats and should be very profitable if sustainable.

[Richard Latimer]

Potential LTD's/LCS:

I've got 50 selections post 70 for a decent strike rate of 86% so far and 74 selections for a strike rate of just under 91% 67/74 when entering in the 60th minute.

Playing it cautious at present taking LTD and waiting until later. If that strike rate continues (and it means excluding certain leagues, lower prices,certain score lines and match situations) I will almost certainly start doing LCS @ 60 in the future.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.

Nothing even close tomorrow. Give me more chance to look at all the other stuff I'm working on.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing with good enough numbers for the BOGOF tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Big letdown tonight after the reliable Kawasaki Frontale had given such a good start.

Germany Bundesliga looking poor for the BOGOF's. Seems there's now a few leagues to avoid. Can't be helped.

On the JOFFS it was the turn of Switzerland's top league to go into my bad books. They've been there before to be fair so it's not a massive surprise. Will be avoiding them until the stats suggest otherwise.

[Richard Latimer]

Already posted Real Potosi earlier but here's another reminder along with potentials for tomorrow (LTD - JOFFS):

[Richard Latimer]

Wed BOGOF's:

PSG qualify but I'm dumping that league for now. They've let me down too much already.

Kawasaki Frontale have already won by a distance but they're still putting up some big numbers!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.

If only they were all so easy!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

3-0 @ HT so job almost done. Laying under 4.5 for H2.

[Richard Latimer]

Laid under 3.5 in Bolivia:

Strongest vs Oriente Petrolero

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

New day tomorrow (or today even):

Putting away the over 2.5 SHG for now (still tracking). Initial s/r has gone down a little (as is to be expected at those odds) and it's not what I need in terms of bank building right now. I believe the 2 entry points being over 3.5 pre-game and over 1.5 SHG should be a more stable journey with less bumps on the road. Some good games for tomorrow so we will see.

Important to note that while initial results have settled down from the crazy high I saw immediately they are still decent and more than good enough to make a healthy profit should that be where things end up longterm.

61% on over 3.5 @ ave odds 2.00 (that's bookie price - betfair will be higher in most cases) plus knowing 1-0 or 0-1 is an easy exit route for only minimal red as opposed to the high likelihood that entry losing.

71% on over 1.5 SHG (ave bookie odds 1.6 and in most cases betfair will be higher) should provide a good 10-15% yield over time if it continues in that manner).

May do similar with the over 3.5 and concentrate on the H2 plays. Was good in that respect until PSG stunk it up. France seems to be almost as bad for this as the prem.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

LTD (JO.F.F.S.):

None qualified past 70 today other than an Ecuadorian loser. Hope for better today.

Longterm it may be best to enter after 59mins (s/r extremely high removing a couple of poor leagues and some crazy odds) but for now I'm being cautious so will stay on point for 69mins (70th minute) Odds are manageable and my strike rate is still incredibly good thus far.

Only one qualifier beyond 70 today and just the one more beyond 60. Both winners. I really want to find a way to use more of these than the few that slip into the 2nd half drawing.

[Richard Latimer]

LTD (JO.F.F.S.):

None qualified past 70 today other than an Ecuadorian loser. Hope for better today.

Longterm it may be best to enter after 59mins (s/r extremely high removing a couple of poor leagues and some crazy odds) but for now I'm being cautious so will stay on point for 69mins (70th minute) Odds are manageable and my strike rate is still incredibly good thus far.

[Richard Latimer]

New day tomorrow (or today even):

Putting away the over 2.5 SHG for now (still tracking). Initial s/r has gone down a little (as is to be expected at those odds) and it's not what I need in terms of bank building right now. I believe the 2 entry points being over 3.5 pre-game and over 1.5 SHG should be a more stable journey with less bumps on the road. Some good games for tomorrow so we will see.

Important to note that while initial results have settled down from the crazy high I saw immediately they are still decent and more than good enough to make a healthy profit should that be where things end up longterm.

61% on over 3.5 @ ave odds 2.00 (that's bookie price - betfair will be higher in most cases) plus knowing 1-0 or 0-1 is an easy exit route for only minimal red as opposed to the high likelihood that entry losing.

71% on over 1.5 SHG (ave bookie odds 1.6 and in most cases betfair will be higher) should provide a good 10-15% yield over time if it continues in that manner).

[Richard Latimer]

Who'd have thought, Ajax would spoil the day at 3-0 in the first half!? At least they somehow managed a fourth so it wasn't a full loss. Disappointing day.