Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

Also Ajax would have been a late goal winner. Need to see more in Eredivisie before I include this league again but I guess the signs are promising.

In other news, I have been looking at 3rd goals of the half in addition to 2nd goals and it seems as long as the last goal came far enough back there is still a very good chance of another goal when the home team is a favourite of 2.2 or less (average book price). Not only that but a 3rd goal so far seems to be far less reliant on the current score.

If I had to hazard a guess why this would be I'd say the game is turning into a bit of goal glut with 2 goals in 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Goals breed goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

[Richard Latimer]

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

Goal in the 64th in India. Constantly monitoring these and the temptation is to make entry point earlier. Being exacerbated at the moment by the relatively slim pickings on offer throughout January. Hopefully I'll find the entry point I'm satisfied with in terms of not letting things slip away bnut also not increasing liabilities/reducing potential profit of each trade too much.

I also want to look at the effect of certain scorelines on a 2nd goal. At present for all scorelines a 2nd goal seems way too 50/50 so there wouldn't be any point to it.

[Richard Latimer]

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

[Richard Latimer]

Sundays:

[Richard Latimer]

Well when I finally got into it things didn't go too bad. Only small green as had a 50/50 split on the LTD and 2 winning FHG trades.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

The almighty doesn't want me trading today haha! Both inplay Belgian games null and void with early h2 goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

It's also 24 winning late goal trades with a red card and 0 losses from the well performing leagues.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer it came up in my first half goal filter, set and forget drip job. I wasn't to worried when the dog got a red. even though it was an own goal.

[Richard Latimer]

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

[Richard Latimer]

2 quick goals in the only potential FH play renders that null and void.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Going back to posting in here for a bit although I'll still update the main thread where possible:

Gone through the data I have so far as well as what I know about the leagues and made a plan for what I'll be doing tomorrow.

FH Play is an entry around 22 mins in backing over 2.5. If goal comes before then I'll wait until 30 mins and back over 3.5. Green on goal, red @ HT.
FH? means I need to check on home starting odds to ensure they remain fave of 2.1 or less
SH Play I'll be backing a goal around 66mins in
FGO means the goal I'm backing must be first of the half
NB60 (last goal scored not beyond the 60th minute)

Emmen I won't be touching at present in FH or SH due to the Eredivisie starting off quite poor in SH plays and home not being strong enough fave for FH play..

[Richard Latimer]

Going back to posting in here for a bit although I'll still update the main thread where possible:

Gone through the data I have so far as well as what I know about the leagues and made a plan for what I'll be doing tomorrow.

FH Play is an entry around 22 mins in backing over 2.5. If goal comes before then I'll wait until 30 mins and back over 3.5. Green on goal, red @ HT.
FH? means I need to check on home starting odds to ensure they remain fave of 2.1 or less
SH Play I'll be backing a goal around 66mins in
FGO means the goal I'm backing must be first of the half
NB60 (last goal scored not beyond the 60th minute)

[Richard Latimer]

The potentials I posted up in the football thread started well, then I made a mistake, lost my green on a SHG that never was before the remainder of the day fizzles out with earlier goals than I wanted. On to Thur.

[Richard Latimer]

@martin-futter said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@neil-mallett said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter Firefox Edge Chrome

Same time, same compy the 'Show entries' fella doesn't always appear but it did this time and it works when it does appear, I can't make the From/to filter work in any browser, I managed to set the date to todays date but there were no results, so I had to clear the filter and reload to get todays games, then after restarting chrome twice, I managed to highlight & right click copy the data I needed.
Also, the entire list reloads every minute or so.

have you sorted it? @adam-williams gave some explanations on the support thread, I will tag you.

I've not even looked yet. I will do but concentrating solely on one filter at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

Had a good over 2.5 fh back today which I Greened for about half a point which is good as Redding would only ever lose the same half a point. In these I'm looking at between 65-70% strike rate.

Missed out on 2 late goals which came between 60 and 70 in Serie A. Also another goal after a red which so far is making no difference. Nevertheless I'm not about to start getting into these without a massive amount of data to back it up.

In terms of popular goal times it would seem that 67th is currently a very popular time for a goal. Would mean getting in after 66mins but currently many goals just missing.

[Martin]

@neil-mallett said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@martin-futter Firefox Edge Chrome

Same time, same compy the 'Show entries' fella doesn't always appear but it did this time and it works when it does appear, I can't make the From/to filter work in any browser, I managed to set the date to todays date but there were no results, so I had to clear the filter and reload to get todays games, then after restarting chrome twice, I managed to highlight & right click copy the data I needed.
Also, the entire list reloads every minute or so.

have you sorted it? @adam-williams gave some explanations on the support thread, I will tag you.

[A Former User]

@neil-mallett delete 'new.' thats the word new & the dot before betfairtradingcommunitydotcom in the URL bar