Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Been working through my plan of paper trading and this is what I've come up with:

First off, when it's just one late goal and the HT score was 2-2, I don't like it. Had many filters where this just never seems to prosper. It's an outlier for sure as not many games with 4FHG.

Straight off the bat, looking at FHG in Rapid and Telstar. If a goal is scored prior to my entry point of 23rd minute I would wait until 30mins and then go again. I'd either back over 0.5FH/lay under 0.5FH or back over 2.5/3.5 and green on a goal, red on a 0-0 HT.

Grasshoppers I might like BUT.....only if the home odds are 2.2 or less ave book price and only if an early goal is scored before 23rd minute. In this case I would be looking again for 30mins onwards.

Odds need to be decent enough as well so something with over 2.5 odds of under 1.4 ave book price from kick off is a no no.

All matches are potential LTD/LCS on 67mins if zero H2 goals provided not 2-2 as already said.

In addition:

If 2 quick goals in any of the games prior to 60th min I would lean towards another an aim to enter for 75th min.

Finally, for Rapid, Grasshoppers (only if home odds 2.2 or less ave book price) and Telstar if there is only 1 quick goal prior to 60th min but this goal either puts the home team 1 down or on level terms, I would look to back another goal from 70th min onwards.

This was much better:

Maastricht were 1-0 up at ht which ruled out the straight LCS for one goal and when a goal did come it came too late and wasn't followed by another anyway so no trade.

Rapid were a favourite of 2.2 or less and went ahead very early so much so you would expect another to follow in the first 45 mins. Follow it did in the 31st minute so as long as I'd been matched by the time 30mins was up that's a win.

For the 2nd half they scored early to make it 3-1, not a trade unless another goes in before 60 which it didn't.

Grasshoppers were under 2.2 @ kickoff so would have qualified for a FHG but for me not having the best of initial data in the Challenge league on this. I said that if an early goal was scored I would look for another as so far this seems to signify the teams are up for it early doors and that more goals should follow. As is, it was 0-0@HT so no trade.

Early goal scored 2nd half but that only made it 1-0 to the Grasshoppers, the fave. As no further goals scored before 60 it was a no trade.

Willlem II. Aside from the fact there was a red card and I'm not sure how I feel about them right now this was another no trade. Close but no cigar. 1-0@HT and Willem not a home fave so needed 2 goals prior to 60th minute. First came on 58, but the 2nd followed after on 62. As it happens there was another on 70 but not part of the plan so we move on.

Telstar, another decent home fave with decent enough odds on the over. Scored first on 16mins and so the plan was to wait for 30mins and pull the trigger. 2nd goal duly scored 33rd minute. Winning trade.

Same game stays 1-1 until 76th minute so LCS in. Another winning trade.

Final game in Almere did all the right things but a quick look at the odds and they were miserly so it's a hard pass.

What does that mean. 3 winning trades and the type of day that makes you think you're ready. I'm not. More tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Been working through my plan of paper trading and this is what I've come up with:

First off, when it's just one late goal and the HT score was 2-2, I don't like it. Had many filters where this just never seems to prosper. It's an outlier for sure as not many games with 4FHG.

Straight off the bat, looking at FHG in Rapid and Telstar. If a goal is scored prior to my entry point of 23rd minute I would wait until 30mins and then go again. I'd either back over 0.5FH/lay under 0.5FH or back over 2.5/3.5 and green on a goal, red on a 0-0 HT.

Grasshoppers I might like BUT.....only if the home odds are 2.2 or less ave book price and only if an early goal is scored before 23rd minute. In this case I would be looking again for 30mins onwards.

Odds need to be decent enough as well so something with over 2.5 odds of under 1.4 ave book price from kick off is a no no.

All matches are potential LTD/LCS on 67mins if zero H2 goals provided not 2-2 as already said.

In addition:

If 2 quick goals in any of the games prior to 60th min I would lean towards another an aim to enter for 75th min.

Finally, for Rapid, Grasshoppers (only if home odds 2.2 or less ave book price) and Telstar if there is only 1 quick goal prior to 60th min but this goal either puts the home team 1 down or on level terms, I would look to back another goal from 70th min onwards.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Quite easy and straight forward tomorrow:

Should be a 2nd half goal. Would enter on 67 if no prior 2nd half goals scored. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th minute I would lean towards another and get in for 75th minute.

If HT score 0-2 and no goals scored before the 67 entry I would swerve it for now.

Scratch that. I don't like that home was in lower league last year. Nothing on my plan for Thursday.

[Richard Latimer]

Quite easy and straight forward tomorrow:

Should be a 2nd half goal. Would enter on 67 if no prior 2nd half goals scored. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th minute I would lean towards another and get in for 75th minute.

If HT score 0-2 and no goals scored before the 67 entry I would swerve it for now.

[Richard Latimer]

No FH goals scored in St. Gallen at all and Liepzig remained a tight affar until late on which wasn't in my plan. Only Gremio qualified and duly scored.

2 winning trades
1 losing trade
Average, prob scratch if I was on them with money.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

First up Kerala Blasters.

Fancy a late goal and if 2 quick goals scored prior to 60th minute I would lean towards another. So far goals in india have tended to come after that point and only one of them but I'm going on the basis of all other leagues so far. Goals seem to breed goals and if there's a glut of early goals it signals the potential for at least one more.

Same with Kortrijk in Belgium although I don't trust the 0-1 scoreline there at present. Also if price on Kortrijk comes down a little or even stays the same I would back another goal if one early goal in the half puts Kortrijk into the position of drawing or losing by 1.

I also believe they are a good shout for a FHG at this price or under too. (as per oddsportal - max wanted 2.2 ave book price).If FHG comes before 23rd minute, lean towards a 2nd.

Galatasaray I fancy FHG on the same basis as Kortrijk. Also H2 goals on same basis as Kortrijk. No scoreline off the table in Turkey right now.

Kerala Blasters were 0-1 @ HT and a late goal was scored in 73rd. Winning trade.
Kortrijk went in 0-2 @ HT and 0-2 it stayed. FHG never a thing as home odds too high for me. Only been 4 0-2 scorelines with no goal before 67 and it's now 2 wins/2 losses. I think that when 2 away goals are scoredFH it's quite common for another to follow fairly quckly in the 2nd. When it doesn't it seems to become somewhat of a battle and goals are scarce. It's an outlier for one thing as I've got over 200 selections in the raw data since Mid Dec and for it to only happen 4 times tells it's own story.

Gala scored too early and too often. Same in 2nd half - No trade.

That's 1-1 from the early games and again disappointing in my judgement but that's the whole point of this exercise.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

Ends 1-1 so...

[Richard Latimer]

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Also in Liepzig, if a quick H2 goal is scored prior to 60th minute which puts them into a losing or drawing position I would lean towards another and want to enter for the 70th minute.

If 2 quick goals are scored prior to 60th minute in either of Freiburg or Leipzig games I would lean towards another and aim to get in for 75th minute. Goals breeding goals is the theme.

[Richard Latimer]

Also in Liepzig, if a quick H2 goal is scored prior to 60th minute which puts them into a losing or drawing position I would lean towards another and want to enter for the 70th minute.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

If goal is scored prior to 23rd minute I fancy another before HT. Would be looking for trade 30mins onwards. St. Gallen.

Same in Leipzig.

[Richard Latimer]

If goal is scored prior to 23rd minute I fancy another before HT. Would be looking for trade 30mins onwards. St. Gallen.

[Richard Latimer]

First up Kerala Blasters.

Fancy a late goal and if 2 quick goals scored prior to 60th minute I would lean towards another. So far goals in india have tended to come after that point and only one of them but I'm going on the basis of all other leagues so far. Goals seem to breed goals and if there's a glut of early goals it signals the potential for at least one more.

Same with Kortrijk in Belgium although I don't trust the 0-1 scoreline there at present. Also if price on Kortrijk comes down a little or even stays the same I would back another goal if one early goal in the half puts Kortrijk into the position of drawing or losing by 1.

I also believe they are a good shout for a FHG at this price or under too. (as per oddsportal - max wanted 2.2 ave book price).If FHG comes before 23rd minute, lean towards a 2nd.

Galatasaray I fancy FHG on the same basis as Kortrijk. Also H2 goals on same basis as Kortrijk. No scoreline off the table in Turkey right now.

[Richard Latimer]

This is what I'll be making my plans from Wed. A mini disaster had halted me in my tracks tonight so I'll make the afternoon plan then come back to it ahead of the evening.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

So this is what I got and this would be my plan if I were trading them.....which I'm not haha:

Doncaster - Decent FHG average and strong fave. FHG expected so either back over 2.5 or back over 0.5FH. If FHG is to come earlier than 23rd minute, I would strongly lean towards another and aim to get in after 30mins on either backing over 3.5 or backing over 1.5FH.

Viitorul - I would strongly expect a late goal if game is 0-0/1-1 or either team leading by 1-0/0-1. Would aim to get in for 67th minute.

Doncaster again. Expect late goal but if a goal were to go before 60th minute and Donny found themselves either losing or drawing at this point I would lean towards another and aim to get in 70th minute.

If 2 quick goals (regardless of score who scores them) go in before 60th I would again strongly lean towards another and aim to get in 75th.

Bayer Leverkusen - Assuming the odds not pitiful I would look at this if the game turned into a goal fest H2. By this I mean I want 2 quick goals before the 60th minute. Only then would I touch this game and aim for a 3rd 2nd half goal.

FHG in Docaster on 31mins so that's one right.
Viitorul late late goal @ 0-0 so that's another right.
Doncaster leading 1-0 @ the break and that's how it stayed. A real issue with 1-0 and 0-1 scorelines in comparison to others.
While not wanting to rule out that scoreline entirely, I do think it will become more of a need to see league/specific team evidence/data of scoring from this position rather than take it as read there should still be another.

In any case that's 2/3 and small disappointment. No money changed hands an it won't until I see consistently good decision and resultant positive results.

I'm looking at the wrong Romanian game. What happened was...

1-0 @ HT, 1-1 56, 1-2, 70, 2-2 73.

Actually still a perfect trade IF I'd gone with how other games are progressing on this. Wasn't on my plan so can't take credit today but again goals followed goals. % now for this happening is really quite something else in the initial stages considering the odds are complimentary 70-75mins in.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

So this is what I got and this would be my plan if I were trading them.....which I'm not haha:

Doncaster - Decent FHG average and strong fave. FHG expected so either back over 2.5 or back over 0.5FH. If FHG is to come earlier than 23rd minute, I would strongly lean towards another and aim to get in after 30mins on either backing over 3.5 or backing over 1.5FH.

Viitorul - I would strongly expect a late goal if game is 0-0/1-1 or either team leading by 1-0/0-1. Would aim to get in for 67th minute.

Doncaster again. Expect late goal but if a goal were to go before 60th minute and Donny found themselves either losing or drawing at this point I would lean towards another and aim to get in 70th minute.

If 2 quick goals (regardless of score who scores them) go in before 60th I would again strongly lean towards another and aim to get in 75th.

Bayer Leverkusen - Assuming the odds not pitiful I would look at this if the game turned into a goal fest H2. By this I mean I want 2 quick goals before the 60th minute. Only then would I touch this game and aim for a 3rd 2nd half goal.

FHG in Docaster on 31mins so that's one right.
Viitorul late late goal @ 0-0 so that's another right.
Doncaster leading 1-0 @ the break and that's how it stayed. A real issue with 1-0 and 0-1 scorelines in comparison to others.
While not wanting to rule out that scoreline entirely, I do think it will become more of a need to see league/specific team evidence/data of scoring from this position rather than take it as read there should still be another.

In any case that's 2/3 and small disappointment. No money changed hands an it won't until I see consistently good decision and resultant positive results.

[Richard Latimer]

So this is what I got and this would be my plan if I were trading them.....which I'm not haha:

Doncaster - Decent FHG average and strong fave. FHG expected so either back over 2.5 or back over 0.5FH. If FHG is to come earlier than 23rd minute, I would strongly lean towards another and aim to get in after 30mins on either backing over 3.5 or backing over 1.5FH.

Viitorul - I would strongly expect a late goal if game is 0-0/1-1 or either team leading by 1-0/0-1. Would aim to get in for 67th minute.

Doncaster again. Expect late goal but if a goal were to go before 60th minute and Donny found themselves either losing or drawing at this point I would lean towards another and aim to get in 70th minute.

If 2 quick goals (regardless of score who scores them) go in before 60th I would again strongly lean towards another and aim to get in 75th.

Bayer Leverkusen - Assuming the odds not pitiful I would look at this if the game turned into a goal fest H2. By this I mean I want 2 quick goals before the 60th minute. Only then would I touch this game and aim for a 3rd 2nd half goal.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just going to keep posting my ideas in here for a little bit and see what happens. Paper trading only for now:

Not too much to say on these. First off Hamburger is a strong favourite odds wise and has a decent FH average. This to me says FHG.

On to H2 plays:

Turkey, Ger 2 and 3. Liga have been very good thus far. A selection of different HT scores including the dreaded 0-1/1-0. No reason to think there won't be a goal.

Hamburger as mentioned are strong favourites so if a quick goal goes in before 60mins to leave them either drawing or losing, I strongly suspect there could be another goal.

If in any of the 3 matches 2 quick goals (regardless of scoreline or who scores them) are scored prior to 60mins then again I strongly suspect it will be followed by another.

I need to see my soothsaying abilities improve drastically before taking these on again and I think putting me explantions and reasoning down here may help with that.

As promised I stayed out of all these. All went to plan but that's beside the point. I need this time out.

Fenerbahce scored their 3rd goal on 67 to make it 3-0 (67 has been identified as my entry point as there seem to be a lot of goals in this very minute). That means ensuring you are matched by the end of 66mins.

Munich 1860 0-0 @ HT and scored in 75th. to win 1-0. Germany 3 Liga continues to perform. Always a league I've seen good results of in other filters etc....

Hamburger scored early but then scored again late in the half. Not on

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Just going to keep posting my ideas in here for a little bit and see what happens. Paper trading only for now:

Not too much to say on these. First off Hamburger is a strong favourite odds wise and has a decent FH average. This to me says FHG.

On to H2 plays:

Turkey, Ger 2 and 3. Liga have been very good thus far. A selection of different HT scores including the dreaded 0-1/1-0. No reason to think there won't be a goal.

Hamburger as mentioned are strong favourites so if a quick goal goes in before 60mins to leave them either drawing or losing, I strongly suspect there could be another goal.

If in any of the 3 matches 2 quick goals (regardless of scoreline or who scores them) are scored prior to 60mins then again I strongly suspect it will be followed by another.

I need to see my soothsaying abilities improve drastically before taking these on again and I think putting me explantions and reasoning down here may help with that.

my plan but i have expressed an interest in this before and results are pretty good so far in this respect. When goal scored prior to 23rd min, I've got 13 wins and 7 losses for goals 30mins onwards. Considering the odds would be very good for this whether FHG market or backing over 3.5 this would be a very good backup for when 1st goal scored too soon. Worth noting, 4 of these results have come in Brazil for 50/50 split. Without that it's 11 wins, 5 losses.

2nd half play in Hamburg never materialised as the scored 3 early goals when I would have been waiting until 75 following the 4th.

All in all, I'm happy with my decision making and will take a look at tomorrows after Arsenal have sent me to sleep for a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

Just going to keep posting my ideas in here for a little bit and see what happens. Paper trading only for now:

Not too much to say on these. First off Hamburger is a strong favourite odds wise and has a decent FH average. This to me says FHG.

On to H2 plays:

Turkey, Ger 2 and 3. Liga have been very good thus far. A selection of different HT scores including the dreaded 0-1/1-0. No reason to think there won't be a goal.

Hamburger as mentioned are strong favourites so if a quick goal goes in before 60mins to leave them either drawing or losing, I strongly suspect there could be another goal.

If in any of the 3 matches 2 quick goals (regardless of scoreline or who scores them) are scored prior to 60mins then again I strongly suspect it will be followed by another.

I need to see my soothsaying abilities improve drastically before taking these on again and I think putting me explantions and reasoning down here may help with that.

[Richard Latimer]

Didn't play LTDmyself today other than a failed FHG in the Gent game but after updating I can look at it again. What I would have done, what I could have done and what I should have done.

First off, the LTD or JOFFS as I have been calling them for a while.

Not bad other than Nijmegen which was a 0-0 with no particular reason to avoid it.

Gent - Good stats on Belgium for LTD/LCS when drawing after 60/70 mins and it ends 0-1
Lille - 0-1 @ HT but equalising goal nice and early so the data pointed to another goal and that's what happened. 2-1 to finish.
Wolfsberger would have been a selection but for an early red. Been ruling them out from since day one.
Atalanta would have been a selection but for very low odds and a high draw price all of which I ruled out some time ago.
Santos - 1-1@ HT, 2-1 in the 82nd minute.

Happy with that. This system is chugging along at 83% s/r when goal is scored after which is plenty good enough. 77 selections now since 02/11. It's not a bad number but I feel the need to maximise my selections when all the HT scores end up not a draw and hence we have....

Napoli - Scored 4 in the FH with the 2nd coming after 30mins so it's one for my idea of goals following goals in the FH. 4-0 ended 6-0 with 2 late goals also. Think this would have been a good trade and odds looked ok. However.....Italy has been sucking the life out of me last few days so maybe would have left.

Heidenheim scored 2 early 2nd half goals and so plan would have been to enter @ 75. Goal on 83. Goals following quick early goals. Odds are good and so far the frequency in which it happens is also very very good.

Another in Italy with Sassuolo 0-1 @ HT, late leveller. Italy though so maybe not.

Cercle Brugge 0-1 @ HT and 0-1 it stayed. Would prob have played this as Belgium has been ok. A nice miss.

Frankfurt would have given a miss as Bundesliga not kind.

I'll keep tracking but more and more the goals are coming when the 2 teams are drawing or when the game has been flooded with early h2 goals.

In terms of FH goals I picked the only game with a favourite where there wasn't one.

Both Lille and Santos would have been winners with late/late ish FH goals.