Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!
However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.
Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.
First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.
Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.
Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.
Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.
Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.
Now.....to Hamburg.
At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.
Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.
Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.
FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.
Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.
Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.
I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.
In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer well lets hope your now looking at the correct things. Iv been on this site since jan 2019 and iv seen you have strategies before and always thought you were doing ok, didnt realise you were still on min stakes. I think you have always done too much or looked at obscure things. When we hit rock bottom however we learn a lot about ourselves. Its in that moment you see things clearer. I hope that happens for you in your situation. Anyway im off of now, ill pop in end of next month see how this goes, dont like to have too many notifications. Good luck mate and this new found focus im sure will help. Always a quick message away if needed
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?
Since I started looking on forums yeah
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@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck
It's more along the lines of this is the time to make all the hard learning of 15-16 yrs pay off. Now or never in that sense.
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@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?
Exactly
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@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
Timescale is as fast as I can but without putting time restraints on basically. No idea on liquidity as I never even looked. I definitely want this long term. My ceiling is that I don't have one but I'm also realistic. Essentially time will tell but it's a good sign when I can let the losers go because they simply don't qualify.
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@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles.No qualifiers yet today and you'lll be glad to know the Kasaks didn't become trades. In all seriousness I completely get where you are coming from but so far I think you are over-estimating the amount of time I have to give this when I've put everything on paper and the fixtures are right in front of me.
Take this morning.
Neither game qualified for what I'm looking for on FHG and this was easy to see prior to kick off. The first game was never going to be a 2nd or 3rd FHG regardless of goal times and the 2nd game was 0-0 @ HT so time spent looking at those negligible. Karagandy were winning 0-1 @ the break in the first and the score was still 0-1 on 70. A very quick look at the match odds ruled it out immediately at this point.
2nd game went 1-0 on 61 which almost certainly ruled out any trade as the goal was too late in this scenario. Kept an eye in case it went 2-0 or 1-1 in the 70's. Never happened so another no trade.
2 matches and almost zero time spent on looking at them. It's like you've said before, the more times you do something, the quicker you become at doing it.
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Exactly what it says on the tin. I mentioned in jest yesterday that I'll be paying premium charge in the blink of an eye but that's ultimately where I want/need this to go.
So from today I will update this thread with not just trades but amounts. Hopefully it will be an inspiration to see someone go from such a lowly point to such a high. Either that will be an awesome spectacle of what to avoid when chasing the dream haha!
So my bank is currently £59.91 and my to win stake is £1.15 (crazy I know). This will be updated accordingly as the bank increases and will be held in place on a ratchet should the bank fall below this point up until the stop/loss (35% below).
If this ever happens the bank is re-calculated against the new amount so I never go bust. It just ebbs and flows like the waves.
When I invest anything in I'll update accordingly and same goes if I need to remove any (those school uniforms won't pay for themselves).
Let the challenge begin!!!
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@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles. -
No. It's backing another goal Inna range of scenarios explained on home copy sheet tab. So for example it's 0-0 in the 70th and the match data matches ally written down requirements.
Another example. It's 3-0 with 2 goals coming before second half but before 60. If it meets the other requirements I'll back another goal on 74mins.
I lay the under in each case.
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Hi Mate
sorry if this is a stupid just i came across this and been looking at the sheets just confused at what your looking ? are you backing over 1.5 but only on certain on leagues as some have more average goals ? Its proabably me miss reading stuff but just cant get my head round this.
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Anyway, tomorrow's POTENTIALS are up above my chat with Dari but they're also on the sheet so if anyone wants to play along, read up on the specifics, stake sensibly and only pull the trigger if EVERY SINGLE LITTLE DETAIL IS IN PLACE.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer of course i will mate, you will turn a negative into a positive at some stage either now or later on. Its one of those situations where youll learn alot about yourself both personally and in trading. My situation totally changed me as a person outlook wise, some people take on the change others let it take over them, while we probably wont meet mate this is a small group of people chatting online about trading, we do in some bizarre way all look out for each other, we are still humans not just profile names. Lets just hope that knowledge amassed from the last few years helps along the way with your trades. The last 2 posts by you have made me more hopeful than the first few earlier
I've always said whatever doesn't break you makes you stronger. Has to be a perfect case in point.
Maybe in the future there will be a BTC meet up. I'll have my chauffeur bring me along haha!
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@richard-latimer of course i will mate, you will turn a negative into a positive at some stage either now or later on. Its one of those situations where youll learn alot about yourself both personally and in trading. My situation totally changed me as a person outlook wise, some people take on the change others let it take over them, while we probably wont meet mate this is a small group of people chatting online about trading, we do in some bizarre way all look out for each other, we are still humans not just profile names. Lets just hope that knowledge amassed from the last few years helps along the way with your trades. The last 2 posts by you have made me more hopeful than the first few earlier
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer ill leave you to it mate, always here if you want to chat about even the smallest of things trading wise mate. Wouldnt be trying to help if i didnt want you to be in the 5%, pretty sure that figure isnt as accurate anymore at least i hope not. Plenty room for more traders to be profitable. I think even youll admit sometimes you prefer to find things out yourself with this, i/others can offer plenty of advice but if your set then your not gonna stop it in motion. I honestly really hope this works mate. But i wouldnt be able to advise on the stuff i talked about and felt that i needed to at least offer my thoughts as a member. Iv not seen anyone succeed with the fight or flight with betting/trading i hope you beat that or at least adapt along the way. If you have found the golden strategy then fantastic but i dont think anyone has yet for a reason, we can however find consistent strats that make a good return every month so when can then compound. I know or at least hope you were bantering about the £60-premium charge line
you better have been. We could easily turn £60 into £1,500 by end of this year with simple steps, i just cant see how your gonna scale it so much faster than that without huge risk. Just depends on your timeline pressure 5-6 months or a year and what kind of money you need from trading to help, those questions are huge. Relying on trading just sounds huge risk as your main income stream with only £60 bank. Its an huge question whats better the short term or the long term, long term youll have a trading bank that compounds every month that will be more than enough to support any family or short term when youll inevitably have at some stage a bad run and youll then have a huge risk decision in terms of riskier trades. There must be better ways here money wise. Anyway ill stop now because i dont think your gonna change your mind here. Good luck lad and im hoping this works for you. If you have no set time line then i do truly believe you could turn this around in a good way, doing the right things. Keep this simple lad.If I have a bad run I'll reduce stakes and go from a new calculated amount. I know statistically that regardless of strike rate, bad runs will come. What I'm trying to make sure I do is make sure there is a good reason for any trade. I mean it, I hope you'll stick around and offer me advice as I go.
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@richard-latimer ill leave you to it mate, always here if you want to chat about even the smallest of things trading wise mate. Wouldnt be trying to help if i didnt want you to be in the 5%, pretty sure that figure isnt as accurate anymore at least i hope not. Plenty room for more traders to be profitable. I think even youll admit sometimes you prefer to find things out yourself with this, i/others can offer plenty of advice but if your set then your not gonna stop it in motion. I honestly really hope this works mate. But i wouldnt be able to advise on the stuff i talked about and felt that i needed to at least offer my thoughts as a member. Iv not seen anyone succeed with the fight or flight with betting/trading i hope you beat that or at least adapt along the way. If you have found the golden strategy then fantastic but i dont think anyone has yet for a reason, we can however find consistent strats that make a good return every month so when can then compound. I know or at least hope you were bantering about the £60-premium charge line
you better have been. We could easily turn £60 into £1,500 by end of this year with simple steps, i just cant see how your gonna scale it so much faster than that without huge risk. Just depends on your timeline pressure 5-6 months or a year and what kind of money you need from trading to help, those questions are huge. Relying on trading just sounds huge risk as your main income stream with only £60 bank. Its an huge question whats better the short term or the long term, long term youll have a trading bank that compounds every month that will be more than enough to support any family or short term when youll inevitably have at some stage a bad run and youll then have a huge risk decision in terms of riskier trades. There must be better ways here money wise. Anyway ill stop now because i dont think your gonna change your mind here. Good luck lad and im hoping this works for you. If you have no set time line then i do truly believe you could turn this around in a good way, doing the right things. Keep this simple lad.
