Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Back for another day of punishment:

Ecuador doesn't have the best of history on these so this will be one to watch. If inplay stats support the comeback I may get involved.

[Richard Latimer]

ELO's for today:

I missed the first as for some reason when I saw it was 2-0 after I got up late I thought it was already over. 2-2 now. Good start in terms of data anyway.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm going to start looking at ratings again. If they can provide such an excellent strat as the ELO they can do the same for goals. Through looking at various successful filters and also thinking logically about 2 criteria I could use it's home offence and goal expectation.

A quick glance at what could have been today and my interest has piqued.

[Richard Latimer]

See you later October. You started off like a train but in the end I'm glad to see the back of you. More red today.

I see Lee Woodman reports a poor month on his main filter so while no one likes to see anyone lose it's heartening that this can happen to the best filters.

For Nov I'm thinking I should concentrate solely on the ELO. Getting back to ways of green. I'm never going to give up searching for something else but this is hurting my bank balance at the moment and it needs to stop.

[Richard Latimer]

After another mistake and that poor result with Porto tonight I'm now down almost 4pts for Oct. It's going to to take a monumental push to get back in the green for tomorrow and I prob can't do it with family commitments.

Still have high hopes for the 2nd half LTD filter. Just need to cut out the mistakes.

In terms of the ELO, a small change to the way I will be playing it. Home lays will only be taken at 1-0 where as away lays will continue to be taken at 1-2, 2-3 etc...

At 2-0 or 0-2 I will still re-lay but this is going back to my initial idea as nothing more than a potential route of escape. Most good teams are able to get one back and from that I can simply get out whether that be small red or small green. It worked for a year so why change it.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

Oh yeah and I took the dog with me to run an errand. He was misbehaving and subsequently I missed out on the HSV game which was 1-2 for no more than 2 minutes.

[Richard Latimer]

Think I'll let off some steam on my own thread rather than the football thread and be ready to put things right tomorrow or later this evening if the opportunity arises.

Got in Trabzon for a quick green. That was nice.
Got Vorwartz or whatever they're called. Quick green on a very low lay price.
Then I had to go and get fuel and completely missed the fact they'd fallen behind again before they made it 2-2 of course. At 2-3 it was one of those, well I've missed the 2nd and don't want to be burned on the 3rd. 3-3 and a missed op for sure.

My H2 filter which I'm not really putting out there yet. Decided ages ago that recently promoted/relegated teams are bad news for this but don't want to simply exclude from filter for 2 reasons. 1, when the team in question has come from a league not on the stats it doesn't catch this. 2, when the teams have played 8 games in their current league I am happy. No way to do this on filter.

So it's all on brain power. Trouble is I don't have enough of that and keep making the same mistakes over and over. Did it tonight in Bulgaria. Montana newly promoted so should never have gone near it. But I forgot.

I tried going through before the match but then there's so many potentials before games get ruled out for one reason on another it was taking an age.

Anyway, maybe I figured if I put it on here it may jog the old grey matter before I rinse and repeat again and again and again and again ad infinitum.

[Richard Latimer]

Much ELO potential for tomorrow:

The ones without any colour coding are not qualifiers for this. They just have a good comeback rating and I want track them for a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing qualified at all today. Didn't stop me making a mistake on my second half goal filter which confined me to yet another red day. These for tomorrow - unrestricted in terms of league selection at present but you can guarantee I won't be going near Russia or South Africa on these.

[Richard Latimer]

Unless Parana qualifies in a bit it was just the one loser on ELO's today.

Also hit 2 losers on my 2nd half goal filter despite it being a 50/50 split day (missed the first 2 which won):

For tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

So so day. Should have been fairly exceptional but a couple of nasty ones at either end of the day spoilt things somewhat. Tomorrows:

Really only Belarus I'd be unsure of there.

[Richard Latimer]

Another mega list to be sorted through:

Todays were a bit indifferent although no real loss. Hopefully find some form with these.

I made some good green on the 2nd half filter but then luckily stopped while I was ahead as hit a few losses after that. That being said I missed a load this morning and a couple in the afternoon so swings and roundabouts.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the leagues I'm more confident of in terms of consistency. Wouldn't normally include League 2 in that but then they don't normally play at 13:00 for the TV cameras.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.

[Richard Latimer]

The unedited list for Saturday. Although I'll not touch Russia and Slovenia the others from excluded leagues will be on a case by case basis as last week.

[Richard Latimer]

On the ELO front:

Well Junior conceded first,
Then they conceded again,
Then again,
And again
And again

Useless bastards haha!!

Graafschap also shipped the first goal. Unfortunately they were back on terms before you could finish reading the score.

All in all a crap night for the ELO's and a bit of a crap week thus far.

[Richard Latimer]

One small amendment as of tonight. Not excluding promoted/relegated teams per se but they need to have enough data to go on in their current league. I'm thinking a minimum of 8 h/a specific at the moment.

[Richard Latimer]

Wasn't expecting to get any questions on my second half goal filter at such an early stage but seeing as I have I'll outline a quick summary here. A screenshot would have been easier but stats appear to be down again.

So the basic premise is the same as Garys H2 filter. It appears to be doing very well but what I've never liked is the odds parameter. For me, something having better potential value should never be a reason to rule it out. Also, odds are variable and it makes the filter variable depending on when you look.

So as I say, the base is Garys filter. I went into that, removed odds criteria and added the following but with no restriction:

Overall Scored H2% >=0
Home Scored H2% >=0

I also removed the restriction for current season only and rather than simply rule out all early games I'm tracking how many games have been played in a season by both teams/combined (not h/a specific). Ideally I just want to let them bed in for around 1 month and then use data from both seasons until there is enough of the current.

I've removed the filter for inplay only as betfair chop and change this at will. Just because they plan one thing doesn't mean they'll stick to that.

I've removed exclude playoffs as I've found the 2nd playoff can be higher scoring when both teams know what they have to do to qualify. First leg cagey, 2nd leg open.

That's it initially.

It's bringing up a monster list each day but doesn't mean many qualify. Because I'm doing LTD to keep liability down this knocks out a whole load of games. I'm then of the opinion that 1 H2 goal is easier to come by than 2. It may well be that it could be profitable even if H2 goal had already been scored but I believe to truly optimise it's best to simply get rid if not drawing @ HT.

This narrows it down considerably but still not enough.

If 0-0 I'm happy to LTD on any selection from 59mins (catches goals in the 60th min). If 1-1 I'm looking for 85%+ on a H2 goal being scored.

There's not been a 2-2 yet or a 3-3 and I'm not eaxactly sure on the significance of a Home Scored H2% as yet - will continue to track.

That's it. Very early stages, work in progress with good initial results at decent odds. If I can hit 75% at these odds there should be no reason not to profit. 75% should be well within reach and I'm aiming for closer to 80%. We shall see.

[Richard Latimer]