Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Little bit more analysis done. Imprtant to note that I'mm basing this on a few initial results but it follows a pattern and is almost what I would expect to see.
1-0 HT where home team is a strong fave1.69 or less ave book price initially giving good indications for a goal 70mins+
Certainly something else to keep tracking.
I'm also going to reintroduce the home averages of 2.5 or over into my filter as when teams have already scored in the half this particular filter is showing to make little difference. Only when teams are going out with a clean slate so to speak is it having a bigger impact.
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Fri Fodder:
Food for thought:
Home averages as high as 2.4 seem to work much better when the teams have already displayed their efficiency in front of the net in the half. For HT scores of 01/1-2/1-1 to lay 70th minute I have found a max of 2.3 works much better.
Most of these trades are done under the assumption goals breed goals so no goals no trade. Goals come too early or late, no trade.
I have done my best to add a sort of key under the fixtures but any questions please ask.
When looking at odds i will always refer to oddsportal.com which after this place has almost become my bible haha!
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Absolutely zero, zilch, nadder, nuttin on the filter tomorrow.
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Just the one qualifying today is a green day although a quick look at whether a late goal could still have been plowed in Samsunspor after the 6th came a couple minutes too early.....suggests it could.
Good to see @Mark-Gorton got on it in any case.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Not Paraguay. Too early in the league.
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Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Every day a lesson. Not really sure that applies today.
Altay goals were coming thick and fast. Home team needed goals and away team received red. I know red cards have a bad press but I keep tracking and I think there is more relevance when the card goes to home team here.
In any case, goals simply dried up and it ended 1-3 same as when I entered.
Volendam losing 0-1 but odds poor. Hung on too long and missed it. Then again going in on short odds with only minimal data to back it up and a smaller than normal bank wouldn't be seen as sensible. So probably the right call.
Give it 100 selections including these odds and maybe I'd act differently.
From 0-1 that game ended 3-2. Ridic!
Also extends a run I see from 0-0 to 0-1 early in the half that runs 100% for another goal initially.
Charlton 1-1 @ HT conceded an early goal. Despite it being lower league UK, this one I think was fine in principle. Simply didn't happen.
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Easier when not a tonne of updates to make after a weekend. Getting these out there now. One day I'll be able to do this in the morning as my main job haha!
All other than Oldham right now look ripe for the FH trade as well as SH should match circumstances dictate. Oldham just SH unless their odds steam in a little.
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I red trade today and that Jong AZ.
Couple of things to be cautious of following the weekend and this evening:
2-1 could be a problematic HT score to get involved with regardless of how many H2 goals have come before
Zero goals for home team on entry after 2 quickfire H2 goals has only happened once in my data. It was today in Jong Ajax. Home team ave 1.6 possible issue also.
Home team ave 1.6 when an early 2nd half goal has been scored to make it 1-1 possible problem. -
Trying to go through weekends to ensure I'm happy with filters as is so not posted all yet but first qualifier if it stays this way is a 75th minute+ goal in Jong AZ
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I'll post later but the games on my sheet already. 2pm kickoff in Serbia.
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I'll walk through everything in a bit but longstory short 5 green trades and 2 red. 1 of those reds was a 2-1 scoreline of which I'll be cautious for a bit having seen a few losers at 2-1 regardless of whether there's been 1 or 2 goals already in the half. Who can say whether 0-0 to 2-1 is bad, it hasn't happened yet since I've been collecting my data.
Make that 3 red trades as I forgot Randers was placed on sportsbook.
Either way those 3 red trades amounted to less than 3 pts and I took a pt on each winner.
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A word of caution, I have so far found that the average home score of 2.4 is ok when goals have already been scored in the half but when you are going from a blank slate not so good. The return to mean has been discussed before and it's all I can put it down to.
Other than this be careful of low FH averages when looking at FH goals and also ave book price to be sure the home side is at least a SLIGHT favourite (no more than 2.2). Also ave over H1/H2 book price.
In any case my guidelines for what is working so far are also posted. Over 150 good trades now so each individual strat/match scenario only has limited data but as a whole the picture is building.
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Sunday seems a way bigger day on the trading front when you take out the lower league English 3pm kickoffs. Quite alot of potential tomorrow which I'll post in the morning.
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Good day where it all seemed to go as planned.
2nd fhg in Paderborn. Layed @ 1.69
1-1 HT lcs in Gladbach.
Also what would have been a green trade in Poland as Legia went from 4-2 to 5-2. Didn't get involved as wasn't 100% on the scoreline.
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And guidelines of what I'm looking for:
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Saturdays fixtures of interest:
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2 trades today, 50/50 split but a goalless half forced me to look at the Mechelen game and specifically the 1x2 odds home odds. I have found with many of these that you need a home team who are at least under 3's to be optimise.
As with everything, it's a moving figure for the time being but just removing the higher odds on 1-1 LCS from HT with a 70 minute entry improves the initial figures massively. 6 selections less since Dec but a much healthier s/r.
I'll continue collecting data and small amount I have for various match scenarios will grow exponentially until it becomes meaningful. Until that point I couldn't see any point in including them without huge improvement.
In any case, closing on 430 matches on my sheet now so it's not nothing. Just many small datasets from an already quite large dataset.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Todays fixtures of interest:
And my guidelines of what I'll be looking for:
