Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Didn't play LTDmyself today other than a failed FHG in the Gent game but after updating I can look at it again. What I would have done, what I could have done and what I should have done.

First off, the LTD or JOFFS as I have been calling them for a while.

Not bad other than Nijmegen which was a 0-0 with no particular reason to avoid it.

Gent - Good stats on Belgium for LTD/LCS when drawing after 60/70 mins and it ends 0-1
Lille - 0-1 @ HT but equalising goal nice and early so the data pointed to another goal and that's what happened. 2-1 to finish.
Wolfsberger would have been a selection but for an early red. Been ruling them out from since day one.
Atalanta would have been a selection but for very low odds and a high draw price all of which I ruled out some time ago.
Santos - 1-1@ HT, 2-1 in the 82nd minute.

Happy with that. This system is chugging along at 83% s/r when goal is scored after which is plenty good enough. 77 selections now since 02/11. It's not a bad number but I feel the need to maximise my selections when all the HT scores end up not a draw and hence we have....

Napoli - Scored 4 in the FH with the 2nd coming after 30mins so it's one for my idea of goals following goals in the FH. 4-0 ended 6-0 with 2 late goals also. Think this would have been a good trade and odds looked ok. However.....Italy has been sucking the life out of me last few days so maybe would have left.

Heidenheim scored 2 early 2nd half goals and so plan would have been to enter @ 75. Goal on 83. Goals following quick early goals. Odds are good and so far the frequency in which it happens is also very very good.

Another in Italy with Sassuolo 0-1 @ HT, late leveller. Italy though so maybe not.

Cercle Brugge 0-1 @ HT and 0-1 it stayed. Would prob have played this as Belgium has been ok. A nice miss.

Frankfurt would have given a miss as Bundesliga not kind.

I'll keep tracking but more and more the goals are coming when the 2 teams are drawing or when the game has been flooded with early h2 goals.

In terms of FH goals I picked the only game with a favourite where there wasn't one.

Both Lille and Santos would have been winners with late/late ish FH goals.

[Richard Latimer]

Say one thing for me, I don't hide when it all goes to s**t. In fact I just did what I hate the most and spent a good while updating all the losses.

Start with the positives. My idea that goals breed goals worked. Late goals in Hannover & Emmen after a glut of early 2nd half goals. Not to mention there were also late goals in Sparta Rotterdam - came just that little bit early though in terms of my entry point for these.

Now some negatives (balance it out) - Italy. Alan Steward had seen really poor performances in Italy for a while but they had been performing ok until today. Then 2 rotten ones on the bounce to add to one from last week and all of a sudden Serie A not looking so hot. In terms of percentage it's 8 wins and 3 losses after 60. After 67 it's 7 wins and 3 losses so all of a sudden 70% and prob not much yield in that. Will have to ice that league for now and keep tracking.

Scotland Prem, I'll keep faith on, it's been good in most other filters I've tried and every league can hold the odd dud.

Other positive, Bundesliga 2 kept performing with a nice win in Bochum.

[Richard Latimer]

Updated with the removal of Sampdoria. H2 home average not high enough to qualify and home odds too high to qualify for FHG. I will however be tracking it. EVERYTHING IS NOW TRACKED AND RECORDED FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS.

So, these games at present, what I will be lookng for and how I will play them:

FHG, I'm torn. I'll either continue backing over 2.5 halfway through as low risk option and hoprfully health green when first goes in or I'll back over 0.5 FHG after possibly 10mins or 18mins. Difference so far is 8 selections more at the earlier point of entry and 82% as opposed to 78%.

Where I've marked FH? this is too check on home odds after kickoff as I want 2.19 or less ave book price (oddsportal.com).

SH Play will be back next over on 66mins providing no prior H2 goals. Some say SH? This is because these leagues I won't get iinvolved in if there haven't been any prior H2 goals at present.

When 1 goal has been scored up to the 59th minute, home is fave of 2.19 or less and find themselvs either drawing (not 2-2 - I hate it) or losing by one then I will back another goal on 69mins (70th minute). This will include the matches SH?

When 2 quick goals have been scored up to 59th minute (h/a odds can be anything and score can be anything, even 2-2 probably) I will back another after 74 mins (75th minute). Again this will include matches labelled SH?

Hopefully not too confusing but I'm trying to follow the data as well as open more avenues when goals come too early.

[Richard Latimer]

Busy day for Sat. Will post tomorrow how I intend to play these:

[Richard Latimer]

A frustrating night in terms of data. Bundesliga had another win but still not enough positive data to take it off my shitlist.

Netherlands which always has this reputation as such a great league for goals has been poor only registering 60% from first 5 selections going past 60 now. Thank you Excelsior.

Morton and Dunfermline played a dud. League has a reputation so not sure whether to leave it for now.

On the plus side Excelsior got a FHG I guess.

[Richard Latimer]

These are the ones I'll be looking at tomorrow:

Will update how I intend to play them at the time.

[Richard Latimer]

@matthew-biggins said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Was watching the Ajax game as it was on my list too but I tend to find the odds are just way off where I want them to be in the Netherlands. Think that’s my biggest gripe with it rather than the reliability of the goals.

I didn't see the odds but I'm just collecting data on Netherlands for LCS where no prior H2 goal scored at present due to a couple of poor ones pre Christmas. May have just been a bad run but I'm playing it safe and going with what my data shows me.

[A Former User]

Was watching the Ajax game as it was on my list too but I tend to find the odds are just way off where I want them to be in the Netherlands. Think that’s my biggest gripe with it rather than the reliability of the goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

Also Ajax would have been a late goal winner. Need to see more in Eredivisie before I include this league again but I guess the signs are promising.

In other news, I have been looking at 3rd goals of the half in addition to 2nd goals and it seems as long as the last goal came far enough back there is still a very good chance of another goal when the home team is a favourite of 2.2 or less (average book price). Not only that but a 3rd goal so far seems to be far less reliant on the current score.

If I had to hazard a guess why this would be I'd say the game is turning into a bit of goal glut with 2 goals in 15 minutes of the 2nd half. Goals breed goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

Costa Rica would have been a FH winner and 2nd half loser.

[Richard Latimer]

got nothing for tomorrow:

Couple I'll be collecting data from but one is way too late (Costa Rica) and the other doesn't quite fit my currently 'happy with' data.

That's Ajax.

In terms of what I said about a 2nd goal I've been looking into how things go when goal is scored up to 59th minute making it a draw (not 2-2) or taking away team into the lead when home is favourite. Not much data to go on at present but could be something in that still.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

Goal in the 64th in India. Constantly monitoring these and the temptation is to make entry point earlier. Being exacerbated at the moment by the relatively slim pickings on offer throughout January. Hopefully I'll find the entry point I'm satisfied with in terms of not letting things slip away bnut also not increasing liabilities/reducing potential profit of each trade too much.

I also want to look at the effect of certain scorelines on a 2nd goal. At present for all scorelines a 2nd goal seems way too 50/50 so there wouldn't be any point to it.

[Richard Latimer]

Poor night tonight and unecessarily so. Better planning could and would have prevented a red day. 2 trades should have been 0. Occurs to me I didn't document them on here but it's all on the football thread. Tomorrow I go again:

By the looks of the odds on PSV they are going to be under my 2.19 cut off and so if still 0-0 after 22 mins I'll aim to back over 2.5 provided starting odds 1.4+ as per oddsportal.com.

Delhi Dynamos or Odisha to give them their other name will be a 2nd half play after 66mins providing no prior H2 goals......or if 0-1 @ HT and leveller comes before before 55. If it's a goal glut @ HT (4 goals plus) then I would also look for another if there is an early goal up to the 55th minute.

[Richard Latimer]

Sundays:

[Richard Latimer]

Well when I finally got into it things didn't go too bad. Only small green as had a 50/50 split on the LTD and 2 winning FHG trades.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

The almighty doesn't want me trading today haha! Both inplay Belgian games null and void with early h2 goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

It's also 24 winning late goal trades with a red card and 0 losses from the well performing leagues.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.

What is it about the scoreline 2-2 @ HT?! Glad I left Jong Ajax alone. Firs 3 matches ended with 0 trades but I'nm happy enough that the 2 in Germany ended up providing a goal as it tally's up nicely with future success at the 0-1 scoreline after a rocky start. Next set of games due to begin now.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer it came up in my first half goal filter, set and forget drip job. I wasn't to worried when the dog got a red. even though it was an own goal.

[Richard Latimer]

In the leagues currently offering decent returns or at least not in negative territory, I have 23 matches with red cards across both halves. Not one has failed to see another goal. No point currently in ruling out based on red cards.

I bring this up because of course Bayern II are down to 10 already.