Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
-
@richard-latimer OK Richard I will let you know when I do. Because they are only £2 bets I laid U1.5 on 29 mins but cant remember the odds although they were OK. Not done anything the second half as but might go in at 1.7 in a couple of minutes again small odds.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
If you are doing these for small stakes would be good if you can get some live prices?
-
C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
-
@richard-latimer Waiting with baited breath lol
-
Viitorul about to move into 2nd FHG territory.
-
Flash in the pan or better entry point for a 2nd FHG. This last weekend showed me the 30th minute could bee slightly better than 31st. For the 1 or 2 ticks you'd lose in value you potentially grab a few more fish on the hook.
Small data so far but 61% s/r from 41 selections hitting a 2nd FHG in 30th minute. By 30 mins you have cut the odds down to under evens for most I am pretty sure and sometime a fair bit under.
-
Bit of time:
-
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.
Slightly better as I missed the FHG greeen in Javor.
In any case, I'll posted todays in a while but Viitorul looking good for both FH & SH.
-
I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
I've not checked in full today but it seemed a bit of an iffy day.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.
Options is what I'm going for but bear in mind the averages and starting odds etc...as I do make mistakes.
-
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.
-
@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
If you did do anything at all today I hope you realised my mistake in fhg Lazio seeing as FH ave was only 0.5.
-
As always it's a blueprint. Matches I'm most excited about at the moment are the ones where you'd maybe think all the goals had been used up.
Everything is dependent on the odds being what they are at the moment in terms of 1x2 and of the odds not being miniscule inplay (usually seen and excluded easily enough by H2 over 0.5 odds and general over 2.5 odds over on oddsportal.com
-
@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)
-
Just working my way through plan now. I'm seeing enough as mentioned to be thinking that a 4th 2nd half goal becomes probable when you have 2 early ones followed by another before the 70th minute.
Let's call this LCS80
I'd welcome any questions or feedback. Don't know how many are looking and whether I'm confusing the crap out of everyone haha!?
-
Last game in Chile has a late goal too. Clearly way too many selections but all the same it's good to see.
-
Making more observations:
When 2 quick goals go in and then a 3rd goes in while wating for your entry point? Guess what?! Seems another is likely if that 3rd hits before 70. At this point you're looking for an 80th minute entry.
It may even be that if a 4th hits the net by the 85th you could get in on the 90th minute as by that prices are super low and although not much data to go on there is STILL seemingly a fair chance of a 5th hitting the back of the net.
I suppose I shouldn't really be surprised. What better way to see if a game is live or not that when the goals won't stop flying in. It's interesting that this particular angle doesn't ever seem to have been discussed or explored but I'm going deeper. Need more than a couple of months data but initial prognosis is good.
-
While I wouldn't dream of doing so many trades the fact they all came in bar one and one to go is still pretty awesome:
As I already pointed out there was a late goal in Chile to start things off then this....
Alanyaspor with both the FHG and the late late goal.
Atalanta with a late goal against to make it 3-3.
Dortmund with a late goal back while losingv 2-0 at Freiburg from 2 quick 2nd half goals.
Leverkusen with a 2nd FHG after the first was scored within 23mins.
Glenavon with a late goal against while winning 2-0.
Late goal in Oostende.
Late goal in Grasshoppers.
Late goal in Cercle Brugge.
Bunch of late goals in Crusaders although only needed one.
3rd goal in Lyon from 2-0 HT score.
Late goal in Ashdod.
Late goal in Heerenveen.Only match that hasn't gone to plan is Standard where no FHG and 2x SHG at the wrong times.
Still another game in Chile to go but this is a good day.
-
terms of where the odds are at the moment this is my papertrading plan (would never be a question of trading all as so many fall by the wayside. Not to mention that LCS are being crushed at the moment as a whole):
The one caveat. I only have 2 selections on the 1.4 FH aveerage and it's split so would be extra cautious there.
