Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Jerv didn't qualify as 1-0 @ HT and went 2-0 towards the end.

I said I didn't want to over analyse after the poor result in Singapore but a question I was asked on my sheet (don't know why people do that, if there's any questions ask here) asked whether there was an odds limit on the home team. As everything is geared towards the home team scoring a hatful it's a decent question and one I'd not considered. Lion City yesterday 2.53 ave with the bookies and so I wanted to look into this.

What I'm seeing is consistent numbers all the way up to 2.27 so far. After that, I won't lie it gets a bit more speculative.

Lion City @ 2.53 were just the beginning.

So far from 5 selections, over 3.5 is 1/5.
Over 1.5 SHG is doing much better @ 3/5. That said, the odds are worse and it's probably only a very small gain for those 3 winners.
Over 2.5 SHG is 0/2

Again, I stress early days but it's worth picking these out if to do nothing more than avoid them until there are more results either backing up the claims or debunking them.

So taking these into account just to give the picture so far from 44 games:

Over 3.5 68% s/r (30 wins)
Over 1.5 SHG 73% (32 wins)

From 26 games:

Over 2.5 SHG 50% (13 wins)

[Richard Latimer]

Just Jerv that I'm looking at tomorrow in terms of a H2 goal. I'll be checking ave bookie odds for the over and leaving anything 1.11 or below. Provided all ok I will LTD. on 69mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

Ha - was a mistake. Somehow Google sheets had some default reply options which I pushed on. I deleted it again as soon as I realized it, lol.

That's why I can't find it. I notice there's another comment/question from somebody but no idea who they are.

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

Ha - was a mistake. Somehow Google sheets had some default reply options which I pushed on. I deleted it again as soon as I realized it, lol.

[Richard Latimer]

@finn-kristensen said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

Looks very promising, Richard - especially the O3.5.

Cheers. I just need to not over analyse on one poor result. As I understand itthey missed a one v one at the end too. Typical.

[Richard Latimer]

@Finn-Kristensen says you commented on my sheet but no idea how to access that haha??

[Finn Kristensen]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

Looks very promising, Richard - especially the O3.5.

[Richard Latimer]

On that note, nothing for tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Damp squib in Singapore. I tried to analayse it then realised I really shouldn't. So far got 63% s/r on the over 3.5 with average bookie odds of 1.99 which should be more than enough to profit were it to stay this way.

Also got 71% s/r on over 1.5 goals H2 with average bookie odds of 1.59 which is more likely to be around 1.65-1.7. Again this should be more than good enough if it can maintain.

Over 2.5 SHG is a bonus but 48% with average bookie odds of 2.7 isn't to be sniffed at.

[Richard Latimer]

The red simply shows that away team have moved up a league since last year. As I'm basing my trade on home average goals more than anything this to me is not a negative but potentially a positive.

[Richard Latimer]

From the recent H2 goals filter I posted that I'm working on:

I'm not blind to the fact I've tried this to death and mindful of that this isn't an entry on 60 mins as prev. I'm only going LTD on 69mins if either drawing @ HT (no prior H2 goals) or 0-1 @ HT and equaliser came before 60.

SO FAR, this would have been very profitable.

[Richard Latimer]

One more potentially really good one for tomorrow:

Home or Lion City as they're called now, score for fun.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Quick reminder I'm laying under 3.5 goals in the above game. Got 1.44 so the market clearly not expecting goals. Let's see if they're wrong. Cheap lay regardless and 2 SHG would result in profit even if it's 0-0 @ HT.

2-2 with just under half an hour to go. Both trades won.

[Richard Latimer]

Quick reminder I'm laying under 3.5 goals in the above game. Got 1.44 so the market clearly not expecting goals. Let's see if they're wrong. Cheap lay regardless and 2 SHG would result in profit even if it's 0-0 @ HT.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Another BOGOF for tomorrow:

Lay under 3.5 @ Kickoff and under 1.5 SHG @ HT.

[Richard Latimer]

Another BOGOF for tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

I've removed the dog lays from my current sheet for now. If anyone wants it let me know.

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

It's not terribly impressive at first glance but I'm looking at an entry point of 70th minute and for this so far I can easily get my 100 selections to 43 with an 83% s/r. If I were to go 60th minute I can currently get closer to 88-89% with 61 selections.

LTD on 69mins (70th minute) should be a nice manageable price even with a few failures on the bounce.

[Richard Latimer]

Goals filter I'm working on:

2nd half goals I should say. And just the one. Today I made it to 100 selections. Already been thinking in my mind what will have to go and what will have to stay. For now I've just removed the lowest set of averages for home goals scored and also the highest averages for home goals scored. Doesn't seem to be just a flash in the pan. Both lowest and highest are performing poorly and have been from the word go.