Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Todays fixtures of interest:
Yesterday was quiet in the end..
Only Molenbeek and Juve qualified for a 2nd half goal 50/50 split. Juve was a 3-1 entry after 2nd goal had gone in on 60 from the penalty spot.
2nd half 2 goal by 60 is only a 50/50 split on 4 selections now where as before that much better. Will be wary for now. Small data samples but I'm following them where they lead.
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With Brentford off that's 13 potentials now. Still plenty but not too many.
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Can get rid of Malaysia too as season just starting
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For a start 9 of them have a home ave of 2.5 or more from which I will just be tracking for all of March. I've marked these out on my sheet now in case anyone isn't sure. Basicallly nothing until Midday in Ger though now.
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Frightening number of potentials today but as always it will probably translate to around 3 or 4 actual trades haha!
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Another thing I noticed after doing my updates is how Milan went behind 68th minute and up until that point my data had only gone as far as falling behind 67th in 0-1 strat. Just the one selection but now looking up to 68th minute.
Here are Fridays fixtures of interest:
Square boxed borders are the matches I'm tracking for a month to see where they go. All others will judged in terms of what happens in the match as per my guidelines and I will enter trades accordingly.
Small samples in each still but the whole is over 200 trades now so there seems quite a bit to go on.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Can't do anything for the Mexican games at 3am but possibly look at the Kuwait one depending on liquidity etc...
Got involved in Kuwait.
Since seen that the odds weren't quite high enough for the strategy I undertook based on my own findings. It could be that oddsportal has changed since the game finished (sometimes happens) or it could be that I made a mistake (often happens). To combat this, I'm going to start writing down the figures I use for future reference so I know if it's me or the website I use.
Not a great day. Here's to tomorrow and the next day......and so on and so forth
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Can't do anything for the Mexican games at 3am but possibly look at the Kuwait one depending on liquidity etc...
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Bugger all I can get on tomorrow with most of lower league Turkey and a couple of Mexican through the night jobs. In that case I'll take it easy and do my updates tomorrow.
Will post fixtures in a bit for absolute transparency in terms of record keeping.
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Not a bad day today although VAR reared it's ugly head again and stopped it being a very good one.
I think I may have found an angle for the 0-0 which I've been avoiding like the plague recently. Seems that since I started tracking this filter in Nov for draws, if you exclude anything with home odds between 1.5-3.5 it might actually be half decent.
I meant to credit @Stuart-Capstick's ltd for this because I know he said 0-0 is incredibly rare on that and it only favours away team. Without that I would probably have kept under the misguided notion a home favourite was ALWAYS best.
Yet another example of what we think we know being challenged by actual results.
Obv this removes a massive amount of selections giving only 20 in 4 months. As a part of a whole though, it's worth doing.
From the 20 selections only 2 have failed to find any goal. 1 was Liepzig as they drew a blank against Koln, the other was Morton hosting Dunfermline.
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Plenty of fixtures again and for any night owls there is one inplay now. I however need to go to bed. There's a new category/angle as mentioned above. 2nd half goal up to 55mins followed by another before 70 as happened twice today and it seems to produce another goal more often than not.
One of the supposed safest of trades seems to be going awry. The 1-0/0-1 HT score followed by a quick goal which always seemed to spell at least one more goal has hit the bricks recently. There are variations of what I can do (increase home odds, lessen minutes in which first goal can be scored) which improve things a little on the sheet but then I'm also aware of what I had seen previously where smaller home odds did better.
Initially I've lessened to time required for that first goal and removed all reds as they seem to be playing havoc with this scoreline. It's reduced an already tiny pool to an even smaller one but it's a work in progress. Certainly the strategy isn't make or break on this one angle. It's actually miniiscule to the overall picture. Ridiculous though, that pen is scored tonight and it puts a whole different complexion on things. As always, I'll follow the data wherever it leads me.
3rd FHG's not really happening at the moment but I'll keep tracking. When they do happen they seem so far away from what has been successful so far and that makes it hard to expand the initial pattern I was able to see.
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The annoyance of a couple of games falling just outside of my grasp today has led me to see if they may be able to be utilised in future.
Think there MAY be something in an early goal up to 55 followed by one up to 69 with a view to get in for 75th. Not much to go on and as with all these things it will take a long time to collect enough data to be truly meaningful.
Glenavon failed to score tonight after I got on, missing a pen in the process. How often do we say, can't legislate for crap penalty takers haha!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
First chance I've had to post today but nothing has qualified so far anyway bar a game in Azerbaijan which had a home ave of 2.7. I've only just re-added over 2.4 to my filter so will test these for a month before I make a decision.
Was a FH winner though so good for the data.
16 potentials and so far not a single qualifying trade.
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First chance I've had to post today but nothing has qualified so far anyway bar a game in Azerbaijan which had a home ave of 2.7. I've only just re-added over 2.4 to my filter so will test these for a month before I make a decision.
Was a FH winner though so good for the data.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Not a massive amount to see today:
2-2 as a scoreline after HT just doesn't seem to work for most angles. No reason to rule out when there's been 2+ goals in the half as yet but when it's 2-2 @ HT or 2-2 early into the half with just one goal....I'm steering clear unless the data moves a hell of a long way.
Going in 5 mins earlier in FH market makes sense at present with 1-0 scoreline but not much sense on the 0-1 where it only adds one selection to the data.
Could add another 7 winners to my data going in at 65 for LCS from 0-1 HT but I don't feel comfortable doing this at present. S/r as is at 70th minute more than goood enough to accommodate the odds as they are at that time in the match.
The 1-2 after a quick early goal (just the one, seems problematic so far). A quick look at this data again shows only a 5/8 success rate there. 0-1 on the other hand shows a 100% success rate from the first 13 selections allowing for the first goal all the way up to 67th minute
At present, the hunt for 3rd goal doesn't seem to be affected although it's obv a short list right now.
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Mon is a new day:
So to go over it again
Home Ave 2.4+ not good for close games where more often than not the home team would not have scored many on the day. If I have to hypothesize at all I would say that when the home team is already scoring freely then their ave can be trusted more on the day. When it's late in the day and they've only scored less than half of what their average is.....well maybe they don't have their shooting boots on and it's one of those days.
Entry point for FHG (2nd) is now set at 24mins.
Time to push on.
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Going through todays. Wasn't the worst results in the world but it doesn't build so I expect more next week.
2 things I'm taking from it so far and one I'd already looked at but today made a mistake. Hopefully putting it on the page so to speak will help avoid future errors.
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2nd FHG entry point. Today I missed a couple of winners by mere minutes. While I wouldn't sacrafice too much value for a few winners I am always looking at what has come before in a bid to optimise. By making the entry point just 5 minutes earlier I can add another 5 winners to the melting point. 25mins in to the game I believe I should be looking at decent odds still so it's a trade off.
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I don't know why it is or how to possibly explain it but when you get past 2.3 home average it seems to the closer the score line the more likely you don't get a late goal. I noted this yesterday, wrote it on my spreadsheet and promptly forgot until after I was already into the Roma game. that was a mistake and one I would like to avoid in future.
Today was the day of VAR. From a pen turned down in Aus to a goal ruled out because someone's nutsack was just in front of the last defender to a frankly ridiculous betfair screw up that had me a little concerned but ultimately turned out fine. Same thing as the Man U game recently when ref blows up and then looks at VAR only to give a pen. Quite what the trading desk were playing at but from speaking to betfair on twitter they said they were having issues with the trding desk on that game.
2 youths in training gone rogue and fired on the spot when betfair found out a match that finished with 6 goals was still live and being traded 10 minutes after the game had finished haha!
So it could have gone well had VAR not reared it's ugly head and had I not made the Italian mistake.
Could have gone bad had VAR screwed me eve worse and I still made the mistake.As is it kind of went somewhere in between.
The important thing is I learn from the mistakes and keep collecting data. It's alright to think , well I'm moving in the right direction every time but sooner or later I have to actually reach my destination.
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Decent steady Saturday. Hope for even better Sunday:
Don't think there's a trade FH for me in Aus so want to be up for 8 looking at potential 2nd half trades.
