Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned.
Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being.
A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.
Now to the good stuff....
Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0.
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Finally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie!
Nothing to change on this one at present.As @Darri requested:
I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned. My loss .05points
Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being. -1.52pts
A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.
Now to the good stuff....
Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1 +.98pts
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0. +.98pts
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner +.98pts
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner +.98ptsFinally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie! -1pts
Nothing to change on this one at present.
Profit from 4 winners 3.92pts
Loss from 2 losers -2.52pts
Total p/l 1.4ptsAs my stake is £1.15 currently, actual profit slightly more in £'s (although not by much).
Bank stands at £59.15, stake remains £1.15.
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer no im not talking about your results sheet, those sheets scare me im too simple to look at that, im talking about when your doing these update posts. Just gives a easier understanding of what your upto. If your gonna be doing a detail update on each trade may aswell add the p/l of each trade at the end of each sentence.
Smart filters are a good step for you. Just stop with the constant tweaking. If your tweaking each day thats not because of you spotting something thats you reacting to a loss. Lets put it this way if stuarts ltd had lost in its first 2 months you would have tweaked it too much. Its now one of his best strategies. My late goals had a terrible start yet its now my best performing as i let it run its course. Let things breathe. This is truly where the fact your looking at way too much is gonna just ramp up the learning curve of mastering this strategy/filter. Iv never seen so many variables for an lcs trade before. I know it seems like im nagging, but im just telling you from experience this just looks difficult and tbh i will stop posting on here for a while, like i say ill come end of the month see how your doing. Good luck
i dont want it to actually start to look like im having a go, obviously at times i find it hard not to always want to help and maybe on this one i cant.I'm out with dog at the moment so need to be brief. If I tweak it I can tweak it back. Without a these tweaks I wouldn't have to a strategy in the first place. Saved myself loads of losers from learning as I go. It's just tightening things up that can be relaxed as the data shows me more. A large individual dataset will take me ages to get. This is just making it playable while I get there.
I will add p/l with trades but without looking at the criteria and detailed results it won't really be possible to truly understand what I'm doing on each.
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@richard-latimer no im not talking about your results sheet, those sheets scare me im too simple to look at that, im talking about when your doing these update posts. Just gives a easier understanding of what your upto. If your gonna be doing a detail update on each trade may aswell add the p/l of each trade at the end of each sentence.
Smart filters are a good step for you. Just stop with the constant tweaking. If your tweaking each day thats not because of you spotting something thats you reacting to a loss. Lets put it this way if stuarts ltd had lost in its first 2 months you would have tweaked it too much. Its now one of his best strategies. My late goals had a terrible start yet its now my best performing as i let it run its course. Let things breathe. This is truly where the fact your looking at way too much is gonna just ramp up the learning curve of mastering this strategy/filter. Iv never seen so many variables for an lcs trade before. I know it seems like im nagging, but im just telling you from experience this just looks difficult and tbh i will stop posting on here for a while, like i say ill come end of the month see how your doing. Good luck
i dont want it to actually start to look like im having a go, obviously at times i find it hard not to always want to help and maybe on this one i cant. -
@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer add them on these posts, instead of just writing winner/losers say what the points/money won or lost was.
You may be keeping the data but before each trading day your going into them with historic data that says it works, yet after each day your then tweaking? Please tell me you have a good data set as surely one or two trades each day arent affecting your data that much?
I did that yesterday I'm sure but pushed for time this morning. I'll sort, to make it more user friendly.
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@richard-latimer add them on these posts, instead of just writing winner/losers say what the points/money won or lost was.
You may be keeping the data but before each trading day your going into them with historic data that says it works, yet after each day your then tweaking? Please tell me you have a good data set as surely one or two trades each day arent affecting your data that much?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer you could add how much each trade won or lost points/money wise? That would make it easier to read and understand. Why are you tweaking everyday? Let things run dont focus on short term results. If this is a long term play let them run a bit. Your potentially killing good data.
I'm not killing anything because I still have it there. That's the thing, I'm collecting everything. As soon as I see something different I can add/remove based on historical data.
It's the thing that separates everything I've ever done before. The smart filters.
I will try and add a new tab for actual results which can have points attached. Will make the most sense.
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@richard-latimer you could add how much each trade won or lost points/money wise? That would make it easier to read and understand. Why are you tweaking everyday? Let things run dont focus on short term results. If this is a long term play let them run a bit. Your potentially killing good data.
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Update POTENTIALS for today. Nothing has qualified yet so removed the overnight/early morning ones:
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As promised:
I don't have enough time to go through everything that didn't qualify. Juat have to hope people read through and can see enough for themselves. That said, there are a few areas of tweaking where I will explain what I'm doing going forward.
First off, Tokyo in the early hours, I'm thinkful I didn't get. Would have been a play but going forward would not. I my angle for 1 quick early SH goal up to 55 and another one up to 69 it qualified. What I noticed when I lookked through again is the small number of matches where home team had high odds actually made the angle worse. For now, moving forward it's a max 3.25 on home odds in this scenario.
I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned.
Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being.
A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.
Now to the good stuff....
Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0.
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - WinnerFinally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie!
Nothing to change on this one at present.
So a 4/6 day which going forward would be 4/5 day. Almost a couple of points profit yesterday regardless and this is about the long term. Improving and solidifying things moving forward to make the best possible strategy I can.
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I'll update properly tomorrow as need to get to bed but decent enough day:
Guabira in Bolivia is not a qualifier for anything and Nicaragua isn't worth staying up for haha! First game Sunday is Aus. First POTENTIAL that is:
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@richard-latimer dont need to explain it mate, just see how the next few months go
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@Darri one thing to note, is this is actually way less time consuming than the dog lay thing I did for a year. Only need to be checking the phone at very specific intervals. Most of the day I can leave it well alone.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.
Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!
I get what you mean on the notifications. I've definitely been a slave to them in the past. I'll have a look at the message.
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.
Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.
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Was up too late for Tokyo but it lost. Just a quick tweak on the goal 46-55 & 60-69. I now want home odds between 1.35 - 3.25 ave book price as per oddsportal.com
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Many many potentials for tomorrow, not many will qualify and I hopefully won't spend too long worrying about it. Phone on, keep one eye on the score, check for potential FHG's pre-match, check for more potential goals FH depending on goal times and other parameters.
Once in the 2nd half, check each fixture briefly around 60mins to see if there's an upcoming trade or not. If a goal goes in at that point re-check it doesn't fit another angle for further goals.
That's it.
Hoping to hit the ground running in May and make some real inroads. The more data I collect the more solid that data should be in theory. Let's see if it plays out in real life.
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Decent enough day today although annoyed I missed Rukh Brest in Belarus. Only excuse is lazyness at not checking the home match odds were within my parameter for a lay of the 1-0. Anyway, from the top:
Adelaide home odds way out of line with a lay of the 0-0 and as that where it stayed it was a no trade.
Rukh Brest. 1-0 @ HT, home odds under 1.69 max for this score (but still not low enough for FHG), ave over 0.5 for SH high enough and home scoring averages for whole game and SH within parameters. Literally realised this just before the goal. It's great for the strategy, annoying for me.
Steinbach, home odds of 1.87 way above that to be considered for FH goal and also for lay of 0-0. 1-0 came too late for me to consider another tradeas per written parameters on sheet. 1-0 it stayed.
BW Linz, home odds good enough but home FH scoring ave above 2.3 (it was 2.5) so despite the goal it didn't qualify. When another goal came in the 2nd half it was too late to consider another trade. 2-0 it stayed.
Aarau. Home odds too high for FHG or 2nd half lay of 0-0. By the time goal came it was too late to consider another trade. Ended 2-1.
Oss. Home odds not conducive for FHG trade but a quick goal making it 0-3 before 50 mins did allow a lay of the 0-3 on 70. Odds 2.82. Finished 0-4.
Roda, Home odds good enough for FHG but home FH scoring average under the 0.9+ needed. 0-0@ the half. Still 0-0 late on and the match did qualify for a lay of the 0-0 SH. Ended 0-1. Odds 2.62.
Lastly, a loser in Argentina. Not a FHG but home scored quickly 2nd half and it qualified for a lay of the 1-0. Didn't realise at the time but both teams had had a man sent off for the same incident just before I got in. Would not do again. Ended 1-0. Odds 2.34 on the lay.
2 winning trades and 1 loser there for small profit.
Bank stands @ 57.59, same stake tomorrow.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!
However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.
Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.
First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.
Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.
Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.
Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.
Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.
Now.....to Hamburg.
At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.
Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.
Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.
FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.
Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.
Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.
I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.
In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!
Small update. Whenever I exclude something I go back and mess with the parameters to see if this means something should be relaxed elsewhere. With the exclusion of a 1-1 scoreline I've checked the home scoring averages for 2nd half again and seems I can take it from 1.1+ to 1+ on the 2 quick second half goals angle.
Obviously it would be great if I could find all this out before placing the trades but that's obv not possible. In any case, despite needing to push on, I class this as the earn while you learn phase and as long as I'm constantly moving in the right direction I will be happy.
Here's to a good Friday.
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Here they are, along with all rules I'm following for various score lines and match scenarios:
I never enter at any different point to the given entry point on the right of each. Bear in mind that 70th minute means in by 69mins so for that I'm always placing my trade @ 68.45mins.
