Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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The cancelled Uruguayan game has finally been rearranged:
Lay both home teams.
The hope is definitely that home teams in this system are inferior to the away teams but it's also a question of current run etc for both teams. I stopped looking at home teams that hadn't won at home for 2+ games as the results were dreadful. Plentiful and dreadful.
I also stopped looking at any teams where the h2h record isn't the full 10 games that my filters look at. These were very inconsistent.
Hopefully my sheet which is attached explains quite a lot but if you have any other questions please ask.
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It's 16 different filters of conceding, scoring and h2h as explained above.
I follow the data as long as it makes sense and doesn't have me looking down a rabbit hole.
A record that's too good can be just as detrimental as one that's not good enough.
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Morning Richard,
I have been having a look at this every day, just to see how you are getting on
Every positive September so far, lets hope that carries on. Also, still positive in for August, which isn't to be sniffed at.I am just keen to learn from your thought process, so I can see that you are laying the home team. Is this working on the basis that the home team is clearly the weaker team of the 2 teams, but because they are at home, you can lay a slightly cheaper lay price?
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Back to picking off scraps this weekend:
Lay Bohemians
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That one lost but odds only 2.1
Still a good start to Sept.
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Just realised I forgot to post it. Lay Nacional.
As they are currently 1-0 up it's a nice cheap lay.
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Almost missed KA for some reason but given how I'd got lucky in laying the Kazak game at much lower odds (detailed above) I was in front of where I otherwise would have been. Decided a lay of 4.2 made sense on this occasion.
Win and it was around 2/3 of what I should have got laying at kick off price. Lose and I was looking at a little less than I would have at the lower odds/higher stake.
All worked out in the end.
New bank high and one overnighter to come in Paraguay.
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Much much better day after the first one lost.
Very pleased with that start to Sept.
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The smallest of gains in the end but at least I didn't lose:
Things must improve though and they must improve quickly.
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Ok 2-1 Kaisar and I got in and laid the rest @1.45
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So the month ends on a bum note. Danish game heading for a L and Kazak game started early and I didn't get the price I wanted so only partially matched at present.
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Looks like an interesting start to Sept too.
If I can just get through this weekend and hopefully boost monthly profit over 10% I'll be happy. Real work starts Sunday I guess with more winter leagues now coming into action:
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5 to go. Still in profit.
I think the one thing I can be pleased about this month is that with such significantly higher stakes my mental game hasn't suffered as a result. By and large I've just looked and dealt with it the same.
With so few games, although my virtual bank is much much higer, I haven't actually had to dig into the real bank for anymore than £50 at present.
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2/3 again and a small loss on variable staking. Satisfying to see Columbus win after price on Philadelphia plummeted when everyone saw the team sheet and started saying Columbus were playing their B side.
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I was wondering why Uruguayan game is once again cancelled. Defender died today after collapsing on pitch a few days ago. This explains all the recent cancellations in that league.
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Potential to be a busy end to the month!
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Updated set of fixtures (home lays) for the next few hours/overnight. Doesn't often happen but 2 selections turns into 4:
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More to add. Hoping to build towards a respectable position for Aug and a decent base from which to build/take off:
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Update - Two home lays to look at now:
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All Uruguayan games were postponed this weekend until 28th by the way
