Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

1-0 is not a HT scoreline which has worked out in Eredivisie so far as the it reaches 67th minute with no further goals.

[Richard Latimer]

Here's my papertrading plan for today:

FHG+ implies if I miss an early goal there's a good chance of another.

LCS70/75 implies if I miss the first or 2nd goal there may still be a chance to get in 70/75. If only one early goal goes in then it needs to put the favourite in a position of losing by one or drawing.

Although virtually no data to back it up it's looking like if 3 early goals go in then chance of a late goal is still high. Maybe an entry point of 80 mins in this case. Will need to see how it plays out as I keep tracking daily.

[Richard Latimer]

Mixed bag again. On the JOFFS front taking only draws from HT and the occasional early H2 goal which goes from 0-1 - 1-1 it was 2/3.

Saarbrucken had an unexpected blank but both Twente & Lazio picked up the slack.

In terms of FHG, nothing from Saarbrucken or Celta Vigo but Honved did manage to convert.

Finally Hatayspor managed to make it 1-1 from 1-0 at the death.

[Richard Latimer]

Putting things down here slightly different today in an abbreviated format as this is for my benefit and I simply don't have the time to regurgitate in great detail on a daily basis. I'm following same format as yesterday and the day before so if people have been following it should be easy enough to decipher.

That said, if anyone has any questions and I'm around I will do my best to answer:

[Richard Latimer]

Back with todays papertrading plan in a bit.

[Richard Latimer]

After a good day Friday, Saturday was disappointing but that's why I'm doing it like this. I'm not just measuring the filter and accompanying stats but my ability to read it.

First off Paderborn. FHG in but LCS @ 1-0 not so a 50/50 split. It's the first 1-0 from HT in my data for this league but once again that scoreline bites.

Kerala Blasters, 0-1 @ HT and just one 2nd half goal comes too early on 57th. No trade.

Roma. FHG's came too early as did 2nd half goals so no trade. As a side note however, what I'm finding is it doesn't matter if 2 or 3 goals have been scored early doors 2nd half.....it all points to another before FT and so far a late one. I could easily get in @ 80mins ths far and reap the rewards. It might be that my data takes me an entirely different way to the people who leave games when goals come too early as as this point these are some of the most reliable games I have on the sheet. I suppose it makes sense in as much as when early goals are scored and in their multiples then you have the biggest barometer yet to say the game is live.

Freiburg. No goals 2nd half and no trade as I ruled out any action there without prior 2nd half goals.

Wolfsberger a shock 0-0 but looking at the inplay stats they missed 4 big chances. Would include on next plan and the next and the next.....and so on.

Adana Demirspor. No FHG which was a surprise but a quick early 2nd half goal made it 1-1 and as such a late entry on 70mins would have provided a winning LCS. 50/50 split.

AC Milan. 2nd half goal came too early and just the one of them so no trade on this particular game.

Kortrijk. 1-2 @ HT and 1-2 it stayed. I still think this scoreline merits persevering with as only 1 loss since I started collecting the data and plenty of wins. Will have to check whether home odds have an effect. In any case, losing trade.

Grenoble. No FHG so loser there but LCS on 68 so winner there. 50/50 split.

Nancy. FHG came too early for current plan and 2nd half goals too late. No trade.

Ujpest. One early goal 2nd half but the next didn't come until 61st so no trade there.

Basel 0-0 @ HT so no trade there as wanted an early goal if getting involved. Goal on 67 mins but again no trade as Swiss Super is one of those where I'm finding youy get 0, 1 or 50 haha!! As it happens.....5 2nd half goals in around 25mins.

Hercacles. No FHG, but goal on 88 so LCS in. 50/50 split.

Cobresal. One early FHG and no more. One early 2nd half goal and no more. In essence I guess, that's 2 losing trades.

[Richard Latimer]

First set of games ilicited 1 successful FHG and one not so successful LCS @ 67th min.

Milan. Would look for a late goal 67th minute if no prev H2 goals scored provied scoreline not 1-0 or 2-0 from HT. If 2 quick goals before 60th minute I would enter for 75th minute looking for another.

Glenavon. Same plan but no excluded scorelines yet.

Kortrijk. If home odds 2.20 or less ave book price I would look for FHG on 23rd minute. If goal comes earlier I would look to enter after 30mins searching for another before HT.

Same game. I would expect a late goal (67th minute entry) if no prior 2nd half goals scored with 2 exceptions - A 0-1 or 0-2 score from HT. If home odds 2.2 or less and quick goal scored before 60th to put kotrijk either one behind or on level terms I would enter looking for another on 70th minute. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th I would enter 75th minute for another regardless of score or home odds.

Grenoble, same plan as Paderborn this morning for both halves but excluding the HT score of 1-0 where it's a tight game and no goals yet 2nd half.

Nancy is the same as Grenoble if home odds 2.2 or less otherwise it would be the same plan as for Milan but with only the 1-0 HT score excluded for tight games with no prior 2nd half goals.

Ujpest same plan as Milan. No excluded scorelines yet.

Basel would be a FHG BUT ONLY IF THEY HAVE ALREADY SCORED ONE EARLY (before 23rd). Enter 30mins. Same again 2nd half but only if either 1 quick goal scored before 60th putting Basel 1 behind/on level terms or if 2 quick goals scored in the same timeframe (either team/any score). 70th minute for 1 goal and 75th minute if 2 already scored.

Heracles. Exactly same plan as for Nancy and same excluded 1-0 scoreline on tight games with no prior H2 goals.

Cobresal. FHG, enter 23rd minute and if goal comes too early, enter for another on 30mins.

LCS for late goal 67th minute as long as not 1-0/0-0 from HT. If 1 quick goal scored putting Cobresal behind by 1 or on level terms go for another 70th min. If 2 quick goals scored (either team/any score) in same timeframe go for another 75thmin.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, well that goal was bang on 30 mins. Another one to prove the stats.

Yeah but my entry point would have been 23rd. It's only 30mins if goal comes too early. Either way yes, it proves the stats but more importantly it's about proving my decision making process.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, well that goal was bang on 30 mins. Another one to prove the stats.

[Richard Latimer]

Early start so I've mapped out a plan to go until 17:00 initially:

Paderborn, I expect FHG and if it comes prior to 23rd minute I expect another. Would enter 30mins upwards. Odds should be very good by that point in relation to the frequency I am seeing it happen.

Same good should be good for a late goal if no prior H2 goals scored before 60th (entry 67th), 1 goal scored before 60th putting Paderborn into a losing or drawing position (entry 70th) or 2 goals scored before 60th any score, either team (entry 75th).

Kerala Blasters, late goal (entry 67th) if no prior 2nd half goals before 60th and entry 75th if 2 quick goals scored before 60th.

AS Roma, same FH plan as Paderborn. Same 2nd half plan too but for late goals where no prev scored before 60mins no HT scores of 2-0/1-0. I am wary of this for the time bein in Italy.

Freiburg. Will only back late goal on 75th minute if 2 quick 2nd half goals scored prior to 60th minute. It should go without say I don't want anymore than that scored and certainly none in the 60-75min window

Wolfsberger AC. Same 2nd half plan as Paderborn.

Adana Demirspor. Same overall plan as Paderborn but in tight game that remains 0-1 from HT @ 67mins I will take a hard pass.

Finallly, odds must be at least acceptable. If ovwer 2.5 odds less than 1.4 ave book price it will be a leave. If odds for 2nd half goal are less than 1.12 ave book price it will again be a leave. If draw odds ave book price exceed 5.99 it will be a leave. Finally a tight game that remains 2-2 from HT going into 67th minute will be a leave.

Will post more games later. This is my virtual trading plan although I am doing nothing more at present that talking myself through it and waiting until I can record day in day out consistency in my results before I start again for real.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Been working through my plan of paper trading and this is what I've come up with:

First off, when it's just one late goal and the HT score was 2-2, I don't like it. Had many filters where this just never seems to prosper. It's an outlier for sure as not many games with 4FHG.

Straight off the bat, looking at FHG in Rapid and Telstar. If a goal is scored prior to my entry point of 23rd minute I would wait until 30mins and then go again. I'd either back over 0.5FH/lay under 0.5FH or back over 2.5/3.5 and green on a goal, red on a 0-0 HT.

Grasshoppers I might like BUT.....only if the home odds are 2.2 or less ave book price and only if an early goal is scored before 23rd minute. In this case I would be looking again for 30mins onwards.

Odds need to be decent enough as well so something with over 2.5 odds of under 1.4 ave book price from kick off is a no no.

All matches are potential LTD/LCS on 67mins if zero H2 goals provided not 2-2 as already said.

In addition:

If 2 quick goals in any of the games prior to 60th min I would lean towards another an aim to enter for 75th min.

Finally, for Rapid, Grasshoppers (only if home odds 2.2 or less ave book price) and Telstar if there is only 1 quick goal prior to 60th min but this goal either puts the home team 1 down or on level terms, I would look to back another goal from 70th min onwards.

This was much better:

Maastricht were 1-0 up at ht which ruled out the straight LCS for one goal and when a goal did come it came too late and wasn't followed by another anyway so no trade.

Rapid were a favourite of 2.2 or less and went ahead very early so much so you would expect another to follow in the first 45 mins. Follow it did in the 31st minute so as long as I'd been matched by the time 30mins was up that's a win.

For the 2nd half they scored early to make it 3-1, not a trade unless another goes in before 60 which it didn't.

Grasshoppers were under 2.2 @ kickoff so would have qualified for a FHG but for me not having the best of initial data in the Challenge league on this. I said that if an early goal was scored I would look for another as so far this seems to signify the teams are up for it early doors and that more goals should follow. As is, it was 0-0@HT so no trade.

Early goal scored 2nd half but that only made it 1-0 to the Grasshoppers, the fave. As no further goals scored before 60 it was a no trade.

Willlem II. Aside from the fact there was a red card and I'm not sure how I feel about them right now this was another no trade. Close but no cigar. 1-0@HT and Willem not a home fave so needed 2 goals prior to 60th minute. First came on 58, but the 2nd followed after on 62. As it happens there was another on 70 but not part of the plan so we move on.

Telstar, another decent home fave with decent enough odds on the over. Scored first on 16mins and so the plan was to wait for 30mins and pull the trigger. 2nd goal duly scored 33rd minute. Winning trade.

Same game stays 1-1 until 76th minute so LCS in. Another winning trade.

Final game in Almere did all the right things but a quick look at the odds and they were miserly so it's a hard pass.

What does that mean. 3 winning trades and the type of day that makes you think you're ready. I'm not. More tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Been working through my plan of paper trading and this is what I've come up with:

First off, when it's just one late goal and the HT score was 2-2, I don't like it. Had many filters where this just never seems to prosper. It's an outlier for sure as not many games with 4FHG.

Straight off the bat, looking at FHG in Rapid and Telstar. If a goal is scored prior to my entry point of 23rd minute I would wait until 30mins and then go again. I'd either back over 0.5FH/lay under 0.5FH or back over 2.5/3.5 and green on a goal, red on a 0-0 HT.

Grasshoppers I might like BUT.....only if the home odds are 2.2 or less ave book price and only if an early goal is scored before 23rd minute. In this case I would be looking again for 30mins onwards.

Odds need to be decent enough as well so something with over 2.5 odds of under 1.4 ave book price from kick off is a no no.

All matches are potential LTD/LCS on 67mins if zero H2 goals provided not 2-2 as already said.

In addition:

If 2 quick goals in any of the games prior to 60th min I would lean towards another an aim to enter for 75th min.

Finally, for Rapid, Grasshoppers (only if home odds 2.2 or less ave book price) and Telstar if there is only 1 quick goal prior to 60th min but this goal either puts the home team 1 down or on level terms, I would look to back another goal from 70th min onwards.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Quite easy and straight forward tomorrow:

Should be a 2nd half goal. Would enter on 67 if no prior 2nd half goals scored. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th minute I would lean towards another and get in for 75th minute.

If HT score 0-2 and no goals scored before the 67 entry I would swerve it for now.

Scratch that. I don't like that home was in lower league last year. Nothing on my plan for Thursday.

[Richard Latimer]

Quite easy and straight forward tomorrow:

Should be a 2nd half goal. Would enter on 67 if no prior 2nd half goals scored. If 2 quick goals scored before 60th minute I would lean towards another and get in for 75th minute.

If HT score 0-2 and no goals scored before the 67 entry I would swerve it for now.

[Richard Latimer]

No FH goals scored in St. Gallen at all and Liepzig remained a tight affar until late on which wasn't in my plan. Only Gremio qualified and duly scored.

2 winning trades
1 losing trade
Average, prob scratch if I was on them with money.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

First up Kerala Blasters.

Fancy a late goal and if 2 quick goals scored prior to 60th minute I would lean towards another. So far goals in india have tended to come after that point and only one of them but I'm going on the basis of all other leagues so far. Goals seem to breed goals and if there's a glut of early goals it signals the potential for at least one more.

Same with Kortrijk in Belgium although I don't trust the 0-1 scoreline there at present. Also if price on Kortrijk comes down a little or even stays the same I would back another goal if one early goal in the half puts Kortrijk into the position of drawing or losing by 1.

I also believe they are a good shout for a FHG at this price or under too. (as per oddsportal - max wanted 2.2 ave book price).If FHG comes before 23rd minute, lean towards a 2nd.

Galatasaray I fancy FHG on the same basis as Kortrijk. Also H2 goals on same basis as Kortrijk. No scoreline off the table in Turkey right now.

Kerala Blasters were 0-1 @ HT and a late goal was scored in 73rd. Winning trade.
Kortrijk went in 0-2 @ HT and 0-2 it stayed. FHG never a thing as home odds too high for me. Only been 4 0-2 scorelines with no goal before 67 and it's now 2 wins/2 losses. I think that when 2 away goals are scoredFH it's quite common for another to follow fairly quckly in the 2nd. When it doesn't it seems to become somewhat of a battle and goals are scarce. It's an outlier for one thing as I've got over 200 selections in the raw data since Mid Dec and for it to only happen 4 times tells it's own story.

Gala scored too early and too often. Same in 2nd half - No trade.

That's 1-1 from the early games and again disappointing in my judgement but that's the whole point of this exercise.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

Ends 1-1 so...

[Richard Latimer]

Expecting a late goal at Gremio.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Also in Liepzig, if a quick H2 goal is scored prior to 60th minute which puts them into a losing or drawing position I would lean towards another and want to enter for the 70th minute.

If 2 quick goals are scored prior to 60th minute in either of Freiburg or Leipzig games I would lean towards another and aim to get in for 75th minute. Goals breeding goals is the theme.

[Richard Latimer]

Also in Liepzig, if a quick H2 goal is scored prior to 60th minute which puts them into a losing or drawing position I would lean towards another and want to enter for the 70th minute.