Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Mon is a new day:
So to go over it again
Home Ave 2.4+ not good for close games where more often than not the home team would not have scored many on the day. If I have to hypothesize at all I would say that when the home team is already scoring freely then their ave can be trusted more on the day. When it's late in the day and they've only scored less than half of what their average is.....well maybe they don't have their shooting boots on and it's one of those days.
Entry point for FHG (2nd) is now set at 24mins.
Time to push on.
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Going through todays. Wasn't the worst results in the world but it doesn't build so I expect more next week.
2 things I'm taking from it so far and one I'd already looked at but today made a mistake. Hopefully putting it on the page so to speak will help avoid future errors.
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2nd FHG entry point. Today I missed a couple of winners by mere minutes. While I wouldn't sacrafice too much value for a few winners I am always looking at what has come before in a bid to optimise. By making the entry point just 5 minutes earlier I can add another 5 winners to the melting point. 25mins in to the game I believe I should be looking at decent odds still so it's a trade off.
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I don't know why it is or how to possibly explain it but when you get past 2.3 home average it seems to the closer the score line the more likely you don't get a late goal. I noted this yesterday, wrote it on my spreadsheet and promptly forgot until after I was already into the Roma game. that was a mistake and one I would like to avoid in future.
Today was the day of VAR. From a pen turned down in Aus to a goal ruled out because someone's nutsack was just in front of the last defender to a frankly ridiculous betfair screw up that had me a little concerned but ultimately turned out fine. Same thing as the Man U game recently when ref blows up and then looks at VAR only to give a pen. Quite what the trading desk were playing at but from speaking to betfair on twitter they said they were having issues with the trding desk on that game.
2 youths in training gone rogue and fired on the spot when betfair found out a match that finished with 6 goals was still live and being traded 10 minutes after the game had finished haha!
So it could have gone well had VAR not reared it's ugly head and had I not made the Italian mistake.
Could have gone bad had VAR screwed me eve worse and I still made the mistake.As is it kind of went somewhere in between.
The important thing is I learn from the mistakes and keep collecting data. It's alright to think , well I'm moving in the right direction every time but sooner or later I have to actually reach my destination.
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Decent steady Saturday. Hope for even better Sunday:
Don't think there's a trade FH for me in Aus so want to be up for 8 looking at potential 2nd half trades.
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Here's what I'm looking at today. so many fixtures and so many different angles I'm finding:
Any questions ask
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For now it's just a case of adding the 2-0 HT scoreline as that's where most of the remaining results are. 14 more potential trades thus far and from those 11 winners after 70 mins.
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It's interesting to note here after looking at overall LCS for first goal 70+ is actually pretty good when you exclude a couple of scorelines.
First of all 0-0. I've had it with this one. Removing it has made such a huge difference during the barren spell and there are so many different things to look so it's not missed.
0-1/1-1/1-2 and now 1-0 I've already covered.
0-2 is terrible so far. Wouldn't touch it with a bargepole!
2-2, I've always had a problem with this scoreline.
For the rest it's another 22 selections with a s/r of over 80% after 70mins.
Getting to the point where this is going to keep me busy.
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Little bit more analysis done. Imprtant to note that I'mm basing this on a few initial results but it follows a pattern and is almost what I would expect to see.
1-0 HT where home team is a strong fave1.69 or less ave book price initially giving good indications for a goal 70mins+
Certainly something else to keep tracking.
I'm also going to reintroduce the home averages of 2.5 or over into my filter as when teams have already scored in the half this particular filter is showing to make little difference. Only when teams are going out with a clean slate so to speak is it having a bigger impact.
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Fri Fodder:
Food for thought:
Home averages as high as 2.4 seem to work much better when the teams have already displayed their efficiency in front of the net in the half. For HT scores of 01/1-2/1-1 to lay 70th minute I have found a max of 2.3 works much better.
Most of these trades are done under the assumption goals breed goals so no goals no trade. Goals come too early or late, no trade.
I have done my best to add a sort of key under the fixtures but any questions please ask.
When looking at odds i will always refer to oddsportal.com which after this place has almost become my bible haha!
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Absolutely zero, zilch, nadder, nuttin on the filter tomorrow.
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Just the one qualifying today is a green day although a quick look at whether a late goal could still have been plowed in Samsunspor after the 6th came a couple minutes too early.....suggests it could.
Good to see @Mark-Gorton got on it in any case.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Not Paraguay. Too early in the league.
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Overnighter in case anyone is up haha!
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Every day a lesson. Not really sure that applies today.
Altay goals were coming thick and fast. Home team needed goals and away team received red. I know red cards have a bad press but I keep tracking and I think there is more relevance when the card goes to home team here.
In any case, goals simply dried up and it ended 1-3 same as when I entered.
Volendam losing 0-1 but odds poor. Hung on too long and missed it. Then again going in on short odds with only minimal data to back it up and a smaller than normal bank wouldn't be seen as sensible. So probably the right call.
Give it 100 selections including these odds and maybe I'd act differently.
From 0-1 that game ended 3-2. Ridic!
Also extends a run I see from 0-0 to 0-1 early in the half that runs 100% for another goal initially.
Charlton 1-1 @ HT conceded an early goal. Despite it being lower league UK, this one I think was fine in principle. Simply didn't happen.
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Easier when not a tonne of updates to make after a weekend. Getting these out there now. One day I'll be able to do this in the morning as my main job haha!
All other than Oldham right now look ripe for the FH trade as well as SH should match circumstances dictate. Oldham just SH unless their odds steam in a little.
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I red trade today and that Jong AZ.
Couple of things to be cautious of following the weekend and this evening:
2-1 could be a problematic HT score to get involved with regardless of how many H2 goals have come before
Zero goals for home team on entry after 2 quickfire H2 goals has only happened once in my data. It was today in Jong Ajax. Home team ave 1.6 possible issue also.
Home team ave 1.6 when an early 2nd half goal has been scored to make it 1-1 possible problem. -
Trying to go through weekends to ensure I'm happy with filters as is so not posted all yet but first qualifier if it stays this way is a 75th minute+ goal in Jong AZ
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I'll post later but the games on my sheet already. 2pm kickoff in Serbia.
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I'll walk through everything in a bit but longstory short 5 green trades and 2 red. 1 of those reds was a 2-1 scoreline of which I'll be cautious for a bit having seen a few losers at 2-1 regardless of whether there's been 1 or 2 goals already in the half. Who can say whether 0-0 to 2-1 is bad, it hasn't happened yet since I've been collecting my data.
Make that 3 red trades as I forgot Randers was placed on sportsbook.
Either way those 3 red trades amounted to less than 3 pts and I took a pt on each winner.
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A word of caution, I have so far found that the average home score of 2.4 is ok when goals have already been scored in the half but when you are going from a blank slate not so good. The return to mean has been discussed before and it's all I can put it down to.
Other than this be careful of low FH averages when looking at FH goals and also ave book price to be sure the home side is at least a SLIGHT favourite (no more than 2.2). Also ave over H1/H2 book price.
In any case my guidelines for what is working so far are also posted. Over 150 good trades now so each individual strat/match scenario only has limited data but as a whole the picture is building.
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