Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Saturdays fixtures of interest:

[Richard Latimer]

2 trades today, 50/50 split but a goalless half forced me to look at the Mechelen game and specifically the 1x2 odds home odds. I have found with many of these that you need a home team who are at least under 3's to be optimise.

As with everything, it's a moving figure for the time being but just removing the higher odds on 1-1 LCS from HT with a 70 minute entry improves the initial figures massively. 6 selections less since Dec but a much healthier s/r.

I'll continue collecting data and small amount I have for various match scenarios will grow exponentially until it becomes meaningful. Until that point I couldn't see any point in including them without huge improvement.

In any case, closing on 430 matches on my sheet now so it's not nothing. Just many small datasets from an already quite large dataset.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Todays fixtures of interest:

And my guidelines of what I'll be looking for:

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest:

[Richard Latimer]

16th minute goal in Uruguay. Will enter for another on 29 mins.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Really trying to open as many avenues as possible so trying to look at the best of the rest if you will in terms of other scores on my spreadsheet with early goals. Seeing that if you take what don't look especially promising scorelines initially and restrict that to an early goal within the first 10 minutes of 2nd half you may have another decent angle for late goals.

For some reason the scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1 really don't seem to lend themselves to much of a game after that.

This perhaps unfair in the 2-1/3-1 as there plenty that had further goals but what seems to be happening is quick goals or none. When more quick goals occur then I can sometimes put these on the 2 quick goals scored list and look for another goal that way.

The good news is that from over 400 selections now, in this manner, I could potentially find around 135-140 good trades in 2 months. Not a crazy amount but enough to not be looking elsewhere if all was to go to plan.

[Richard Latimer]

Only Uruguay on the agenda for Thursday so I'll put it here:

My list of guidelines for various match scenarios:

[Richard Latimer]

Really trying to open as many avenues as possible so trying to look at the best of the rest if you will in terms of other scores on my spreadsheet with early goals. Seeing that if you take what don't look especially promising scorelines initially and restrict that to an early goal within the first 10 minutes of 2nd half you may have another decent angle for late goals.

For some reason the scorelines of 2-1 and 3-1 really don't seem to lend themselves to much of a game after that.

[Richard Latimer]

The only one that got close today would not have been within my odds parametres. Don't expect that in India but there you go. Odds on Goa overs too short.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer True and thats the learning curve I am still climbing...

[Richard Latimer]

Plus, as I've said I think the ultimate barometer of how a game is progressing are goals. A goal comes in the right window and another becomes very likely.

I'm hoping this will stop me having to exclude loads of different leagues which has never sat well with me.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Because the odds were so bad but the game was manic and I could see a goal coming I laid the HT draw for 2.8...again minimum stakes just to check out my reading of the game. Not really following a plan but I want to be able to work the first half more but miss so much with regards to games that go against the plan...

It's why I prefer waiting until 30 mins when should be closer to evens. Will miss loads but if I can get a decent strike rate on that I will be laughing.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Because the odds were so bad but the game was manic and I could see a goal coming I laid the HT draw for 2.8...again minimum stakes just to check out my reading of the game. Not really following a plan but I want to be able to work the first half more but miss so much with regards to games that go against the plan...

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer You can see the goal getting set up but the odds are pants and bouncing around a lot...First time I have watched a game in India....

What did you get when you entered? So many 0-0's around that I like my idea of waiting for a goal before doing anything.

Of course it's annoying they couldn't wait a few minutes before getting the 2nd.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer You can see the goal getting set up but the odds are pants and bouncing around a lot...First time I have watched a game in India....

What did you get when you entered? So many 0-0's around that I like my idea of waiting for a goal before doing anything.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer You can see the goal getting set up but the odds are pants and bouncing around a lot...First time I have watched a game in India....

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Let's try this again. Goa for another Fhg. Entry 29 mins

Too early

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer got in just before the first goal, so green so far.....

[Richard Latimer]

Let's try this again. Goa for another Fhg. Entry 29 mins

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Better luck tomorrow hopefully:

Changed the LCS after 2x H2 goals to up to 60mins. It's a moving target and if the pen goes in the original still looks good. As is, until it does look good, it would be dragging the rest down.

One small thing to note which I forgot the LCS 0-1 at 70 (HT score 0-1) is based on no higher home 2nd half ave than 1.5.