Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
Timescale is as fast as I can but without putting time restraints on basically. No idea on liquidity as I never even looked. I definitely want this long term. My ceiling is that I don't have one but I'm also realistic. Essentially time will tell but it's a good sign when I can let the losers go because they simply don't qualify.
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@richard-latimer Thats a fair point mate, ill stop interjecting and let you get on with it. I wont take back anything iv said anything i say is from experience of having done things myself, i think we see trading very differently and thats healthy at times, im not just gonna go say my way is the only way but you have limited time by looks of things so maybe the past you needs to change etc, just please if this burns you out or hit a bad run re read what iv said, iv helped plenty members on here change their old habit and make them consistent. Just look at my most recent post to see how this can work with just 2 scenarios. Out of interest how much money was matched in the kazakh games for fhg? From your wording before this needs to work (starting with £59.91) so what kind of money you needing and what bank level does that need to be for it to be enough to start with? Or is there some chain of thought here that this could be a long term thing like say we have 6-12 months for this to work or is the timescale shorter than that?
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles.No qualifiers yet today and you'lll be glad to know the Kasaks didn't become trades. In all seriousness I completely get where you are coming from but so far I think you are over-estimating the amount of time I have to give this when I've put everything on paper and the fixtures are right in front of me.
Take this morning.
Neither game qualified for what I'm looking for on FHG and this was easy to see prior to kick off. The first game was never going to be a 2nd or 3rd FHG regardless of goal times and the 2nd game was 0-0 @ HT so time spent looking at those negligible. Karagandy were winning 0-1 @ the break in the first and the score was still 0-1 on 70. A very quick look at the match odds ruled it out immediately at this point.
2nd game went 1-0 on 61 which almost certainly ruled out any trade as the goal was too late in this scenario. Kept an eye in case it went 2-0 or 1-1 in the 70's. Never happened so another no trade.
2 matches and almost zero time spent on looking at them. It's like you've said before, the more times you do something, the quicker you become at doing it.
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Exactly what it says on the tin. I mentioned in jest yesterday that I'll be paying premium charge in the blink of an eye but that's ultimately where I want/need this to go.
So from today I will update this thread with not just trades but amounts. Hopefully it will be an inspiration to see someone go from such a lowly point to such a high. Either that will be an awesome spectacle of what to avoid when chasing the dream haha!
So my bank is currently £59.91 and my to win stake is £1.15 (crazy I know). This will be updated accordingly as the bank increases and will be held in place on a ratchet should the bank fall below this point up until the stop/loss (35% below).
If this ever happens the bank is re-calculated against the new amount so I never go bust. It just ebbs and flows like the waves.
When I invest anything in I'll update accordingly and same goes if I need to remove any (those school uniforms won't pay for themselves).
Let the challenge begin!!!
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@richard-latimer have you got a good data set to tell you that entering game when its 3-0 up at 74 mins wins long term?
Is there absolutely no way possible that you can look at your sheet and pinpoint the best performing scenarios and only trade them? Im just being honest here but your gonna burn yourself out with all these different angles. -
No. It's backing another goal Inna range of scenarios explained on home copy sheet tab. So for example it's 0-0 in the 70th and the match data matches ally written down requirements.
Another example. It's 3-0 with 2 goals coming before second half but before 60. If it meets the other requirements I'll back another goal on 74mins.
I lay the under in each case.
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Hi Mate
sorry if this is a stupid just i came across this and been looking at the sheets just confused at what your looking ? are you backing over 1.5 but only on certain on leagues as some have more average goals ? Its proabably me miss reading stuff but just cant get my head round this.
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Anyway, tomorrow's POTENTIALS are up above my chat with Dari but they're also on the sheet so if anyone wants to play along, read up on the specifics, stake sensibly and only pull the trigger if EVERY SINGLE LITTLE DETAIL IS IN PLACE.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer of course i will mate, you will turn a negative into a positive at some stage either now or later on. Its one of those situations where youll learn alot about yourself both personally and in trading. My situation totally changed me as a person outlook wise, some people take on the change others let it take over them, while we probably wont meet mate this is a small group of people chatting online about trading, we do in some bizarre way all look out for each other, we are still humans not just profile names. Lets just hope that knowledge amassed from the last few years helps along the way with your trades. The last 2 posts by you have made me more hopeful than the first few earlier
I've always said whatever doesn't break you makes you stronger. Has to be a perfect case in point.
Maybe in the future there will be a BTC meet up. I'll have my chauffeur bring me along haha!
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@richard-latimer of course i will mate, you will turn a negative into a positive at some stage either now or later on. Its one of those situations where youll learn alot about yourself both personally and in trading. My situation totally changed me as a person outlook wise, some people take on the change others let it take over them, while we probably wont meet mate this is a small group of people chatting online about trading, we do in some bizarre way all look out for each other, we are still humans not just profile names. Lets just hope that knowledge amassed from the last few years helps along the way with your trades. The last 2 posts by you have made me more hopeful than the first few earlier
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer ill leave you to it mate, always here if you want to chat about even the smallest of things trading wise mate. Wouldnt be trying to help if i didnt want you to be in the 5%, pretty sure that figure isnt as accurate anymore at least i hope not. Plenty room for more traders to be profitable. I think even youll admit sometimes you prefer to find things out yourself with this, i/others can offer plenty of advice but if your set then your not gonna stop it in motion. I honestly really hope this works mate. But i wouldnt be able to advise on the stuff i talked about and felt that i needed to at least offer my thoughts as a member. Iv not seen anyone succeed with the fight or flight with betting/trading i hope you beat that or at least adapt along the way. If you have found the golden strategy then fantastic but i dont think anyone has yet for a reason, we can however find consistent strats that make a good return every month so when can then compound. I know or at least hope you were bantering about the £60-premium charge line
you better have been. We could easily turn £60 into £1,500 by end of this year with simple steps, i just cant see how your gonna scale it so much faster than that without huge risk. Just depends on your timeline pressure 5-6 months or a year and what kind of money you need from trading to help, those questions are huge. Relying on trading just sounds huge risk as your main income stream with only £60 bank. Its an huge question whats better the short term or the long term, long term youll have a trading bank that compounds every month that will be more than enough to support any family or short term when youll inevitably have at some stage a bad run and youll then have a huge risk decision in terms of riskier trades. There must be better ways here money wise. Anyway ill stop now because i dont think your gonna change your mind here. Good luck lad and im hoping this works for you. If you have no set time line then i do truly believe you could turn this around in a good way, doing the right things. Keep this simple lad.If I have a bad run I'll reduce stakes and go from a new calculated amount. I know statistically that regardless of strike rate, bad runs will come. What I'm trying to make sure I do is make sure there is a good reason for any trade. I mean it, I hope you'll stick around and offer me advice as I go.
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@richard-latimer ill leave you to it mate, always here if you want to chat about even the smallest of things trading wise mate. Wouldnt be trying to help if i didnt want you to be in the 5%, pretty sure that figure isnt as accurate anymore at least i hope not. Plenty room for more traders to be profitable. I think even youll admit sometimes you prefer to find things out yourself with this, i/others can offer plenty of advice but if your set then your not gonna stop it in motion. I honestly really hope this works mate. But i wouldnt be able to advise on the stuff i talked about and felt that i needed to at least offer my thoughts as a member. Iv not seen anyone succeed with the fight or flight with betting/trading i hope you beat that or at least adapt along the way. If you have found the golden strategy then fantastic but i dont think anyone has yet for a reason, we can however find consistent strats that make a good return every month so when can then compound. I know or at least hope you were bantering about the £60-premium charge line
you better have been. We could easily turn £60 into £1,500 by end of this year with simple steps, i just cant see how your gonna scale it so much faster than that without huge risk. Just depends on your timeline pressure 5-6 months or a year and what kind of money you need from trading to help, those questions are huge. Relying on trading just sounds huge risk as your main income stream with only £60 bank. Its an huge question whats better the short term or the long term, long term youll have a trading bank that compounds every month that will be more than enough to support any family or short term when youll inevitably have at some stage a bad run and youll then have a huge risk decision in terms of riskier trades. There must be better ways here money wise. Anyway ill stop now because i dont think your gonna change your mind here. Good luck lad and im hoping this works for you. If you have no set time line then i do truly believe you could turn this around in a good way, doing the right things. Keep this simple lad. -
It's also quite simple in as much as I'm only ever laying an under for the next goal and I keep my stakes the same for all trades so never chopping and changing.
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Oh yeah, like I said, adding £5.00 a week until it's pointless in order to scale faster. Precisely as you said.
All I can tell you is I've been doing this for a little over a month now and errors at an absolute minimum. I'm more focused because I have to be.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@darri Also, the greatest irony here is that as I finally feel I'm ready to succeed here, I've lost the reason for wanting it to succeed in the first place. Aint life a bitch!
Main thing I need now is to build a decent life for my kids home away from home.
Bud i started trading from a nasty gambling habit that lost me my job, my relationship with my family, my home, i was living in a homeless b&b.
I had to make a fight or flight decision on what to do in life. Its not the same situation but it has the same contagious effects. I had around £110 in my pocket at the time. That was 2017. In 2021 iv now got my own business and im trading betfair full time too. This does work. We can build at a rapid pace. It not the end. Iv rebuilt my ties with family which for you will be your kids and keeping them close. We cannot force trading tho. Im glad to hear your discipline is there and ill be reading over the next few months how this goes. Like iv said everyone wants you to do well mate. For me iv seen you try this for years and not really get going as much as you wanted. This right now can be a moment in your life to change that.Get rid of these leagues like Kazakhstan and Guatemala, get super tight rather than just see what leagues could be profitable, actually only trade the best ones. Find just 2 angles. I make around 30-40%/points a month from football doing only 2 things. It is possible. I only use 2% staking on the lates and only 4% on the shgs. I dont see how your gonna make a £60 bank support you immediately? Even if you manage to make 20% a month thats still gonna take time to compound. What kind of returns are you aiming for? Im not posting negatives im posting questions so i can see if at all i can help. Iv been in dire situations mate. Can you add any income end of month say towards that £60 to scale it faster?
I was going to say, please stick around and judge for yourself. In all likelihood I'll prob end with no trades tomorrow and at most 1 or 2. I've had the Kazaks on there a couple of times but no trades as yet.
I'm not going hell for leather but the wife has already levelled at me that i'm not ambitious enough. Couldn't be further from the truth, I'm just not ambitious in the normal way. I've never had a passion before I started learning all about betting sports and now trading. It's taken me way longer to get there than I would have wanted but I'm determined to become one of the 5% and I'm actually super ambitious.
I won't start mentioning amounts yet. I'll see how it play out. Maybe ask me again at the end of May haha!!
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@darri Also, the greatest irony here is that as I finally feel I'm ready to succeed here, I've lost the reason for wanting it to succeed in the first place. Aint life a bitch!
Main thing I need now is to build a decent life for my kids home away from home.
Bud i started trading from a nasty gambling habit that lost me my job, my relationship with my family, my home, i was living in a homeless b&b.
I had to make a fight or flight decision on what to do in life. Its not the same situation but it has the same contagious effects. I had around £110 in my pocket at the time. That was 2017. In 2021 iv now got my own business and im trading betfair full time too. This does work. We can build at a rapid pace. It not the end. Iv rebuilt my ties with family which for you will be your kids and keeping them close. We cannot force trading tho. Im glad to hear your discipline is there and ill be reading over the next few months how this goes. Like iv said everyone wants you to do well mate. For me iv seen you try this for years and not really get going as much as you wanted. This right now can be a moment in your life to change that.Get rid of these leagues like Kazakhstan and Guatemala, get super tight rather than just see what leagues could be profitable, actually only trade the best ones. Find just 2 angles. I make around 30-40%/points a month from football doing only 2 things. It is possible. I only use 2% staking on the lates and only 4% on the shgs. I dont see how your gonna make a £60 bank support you immediately? Even if you manage to make 20% a month thats still gonna take time to compound. What kind of returns are you aiming for? Im not posting negatives im posting questions so i can see if at all i can help. Iv been in dire situations mate. Can you add any income end of month say towards that £60 to scale it faster?
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer so you have a £60 bank right now? From what are you hoping to be making each month to be supporting you? Just trying to see if there is any other way mate to approach this mentally and pressure wise. Fight or flight in betting sounds ominous.
That league post you just did will only work when you have a £60 bank and your stakes are small if you want this to be a main source of income long term these leagues wont work. Kazakhstan and Guatemala leagues are not the answer even if you are needing to rush this.
Id happily sit and chat with you to come up with a simpler solution. You do not need to be doing so many angles to be doing enough money wise. If £60 is all you have right now and if you lose that this is over please speak to either the btc guys or me and lets sort something out for you.
By the way, I won't be moving out until I can afford to so it's just a question of as soon as possible. Plus I'm going to add £5.00 a week until one lay is more than this anyway and it becomes pointless.
I have no timeframe in mind, just as soon as possible really.....that's it. Until then I'll be sleeping on a mattress on my daughters floor....yay haha!
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Where I'm approaching this differently from anything I've done before is that I'm recording all data regardless of whether it was a trade or not. It's allowing me to see the big picture. All this is down to the excel smart filters which I'd never used before. Makes a massive difference.
By thway , in terms of leagues, I've already knocked a few on the head as they dont even have enough liquidity for my £1.00 lays haha!! Honduras for one, so please don't thoink I'm just going to plough on with them all through thick and thing. Turkey Liga 1 will have to go at some point too as liquidity not great.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer so you have a £60 bank right now? From what are you hoping to be making each month to be supporting you? Just trying to see if there is any other way mate to approach this mentally and pressure wise. Fight or flight in betting sounds ominous.
That league post you just did will only work when you have a £60 bank and your stakes are small if you want this to be a main source of income long term these leagues wont work. Kazakhstan and Guatemala leagues are not the answer even if you are needing to rush this.
Id happily sit and chat with you to come up with a simpler solution. You do not need to be doing so many angles to be doing enough money wise. If £60 is all you have right now and if you lose that this is over please speak to either the btc guys or me and lets sort something out for you.
My stakes are in line with my bank for sure. Not overstaking. Certain leagues will fall away due to not being able to scale. But my average lay odds are way less than I've looked at before too so it allows for a few small issues as they come up.
Appreciate your advice. It's not my only iron in the fire. It's one of a few but it's my best right now.
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@darri Also, the greatest irony here is that as I finally feel I'm ready to succeed here, I've lost the reason for wanting it to succeed in the first place. Aint life a bitch!
Main thing I need now is to build a decent life for my kids home away from home.
