Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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First trades of the week:
Perth Glory. Laid under 1.5 @ 3.05 70th min. Ends 2-1. +.95pt (£1.52)
Novi Pazar (Serbia) Laid under 0.5 FH 20th min @ 2.7. 1-0 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.57)
Choj (Poland) Laid under 0.5 FH (around 20th - I was busy) @ 2.06. 0-0 @ HT. -1.06pts (-£1.70)
Choj (again) Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.26. Ends 2-0. +.98pt (£1.57)Total p/l for the day
1.85pts (£2.96)
Bank stands @ £70.26 -
Hopefully a few of these will qualify tomorrow:
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Nothing today.
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Here's Tuesdays potentials:
Over the weekend I went looking to try and complete my sheet which is to say I was sure there were certain scorelines I could still make a play from. It's a not a case of trying to get more trades per se but being able to find the ability to for example miss 4 or 5 trades at a weekend and still have some I can get on when it's most convenient.
Some of the biggest gaps were 2-1 @ HT and no further goals.
What I guess you could call the any unquoted range of scores from betfair @ HT.
And the games where goals come in quick flurries at certain late periods of the game. Beyond 70 minutes for a FG the winners are sporadic but that's ok as if I'm meant to be in the trade hopefully I will be by that point.
2 goals in the 60-69 period seems to work well on the face of it and 1 in the 60's, 2 in the 70's also. Data set small but the idea is follow the data until it's no longer a good idea. It's the basis behind everything.
Checked through all Tuesdays and while some have nothing to play for I will monitor how they are playing before getting involved should they hit criteria. They also have another game after tomorrow so can't quite pack the suitcase yet.
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I'll update Sundays before I post anything for tomorrow:
San Jose Earthquakes. Laid under 1.5 70th minute @2.58. Ends 0-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Oostende. Laid under 1.5 FH goals 25th minute @ 2.02. 0-2 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.57)
Utrecht. Laid under 2.5 70th minute @ 2.36. Ends 1-1. -1.36pts (-£2.18)
Hammarby. Laid under 3.5 70th minute @ 2.84. Ends 2-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Legia. Laid under 1.5 70th minute @ 2.82. Ends 1-0. -1.82pts (-£2.91)P/L for the day 0.74pt (£1.19)
So green but the sheet looks so much better than the actual and other than a few results there's no reason for it.
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Couple I was watching but nothing materialised
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@richard-latimer Seems to be a recurring theme for most of us
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Nothing today
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If anyone fancies having a look at the sheet I've left it filtered on qualifying trades only under the home analysis tab rather than all the data which is what I work from. As you can see, it SHOULD be a piece of p**s to make money from this and a lot of it.
Obviously there is way too much hindsight at the moment but assuming these are not all a bunch of giant coincidences and what I'm seeing is what's likely going to continue then there wouldn't be a single loss since the 9th May right now.
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In case anyone has insomnia. I've got to work so will have to sit this one out!
No idea if Cyprus even on Betfair but it's on the filter and so worth checking at the very least.
All criteria I'm using is listed below. There should be no question of motivation as these are all leagues just starting or somewhere in the middle.
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Just updating my sheet before bed so I'll prob have to do the fulll update. Nowhere near as good as it should be but made small green after a last good trade on Lorient.
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So I don't miss them, the following games are highlighted as potentials for FH goals:
Klagenfurt
Vikingur
Legia
Barca -
One other thing, the matches with home ave 1.5 are only for tracking at this stage. I started off with values that low and then before I implemented the smart filters which allowed me to track everything while keeping it separate I removed them. Have only just added them back to the filter as I want to see if they cann be of use. Need at least a month of data before I will even consider using them.
Today those matches are LASK Linz and Gorica.
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Here are todays:
I spent last night trying to go through ways of making the 0-2 and 2-1 @ HT profitable as well as refining and bettering the 1-1 scoreline after an early goal and while I have no way to ensure it continues as it has been there is promise I could have done all 3.
The sheet and posting I'm making this morning relfects that. It's a moving playing field which will hopefully move less and less over time.
As I stated previously, if anyone intends to follow along please ensure you check leagues are at least 4 matches in (I think I've done this purely for fitness more than anything but where Apertura's are concerned if one team has already won the clausura this could affect what they do in the apertura.....or vice versa).
Any questions other than that, please ask and if I'm around I'll answer.
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Under ordinary circumstances, had I not screwed the pooch in the day I prob wouldn't have bothered with the MLS @ 3am but I did and clawed back a point from my bed. This will be in tonights update. Not posted but like I say, San Jose was in the sheet of potentials if any night owls were awake.
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Right, first things first. Complete update on yesterday as I want/need to remain 100% transparent on this:
TNS (The New Saints) - Laid under 2.5 70th minute @ 2.52 when 2-0 up and an early goal scored 2nd half. The red should have been a red flag as although I'd not had any losers in this scenario I'd not had any winners either. 2-0 it ended. Captain hindsight strikes again........ -1.52pts (-£2.43).
Sonnenhof v FSF Frankfurt - Laid under 2.5 70th minute @ 2.48 when 0-2 and an early goal scored 2nd half. Ends 0-2 and a scan of past results in this scenario showed I should have been aware/beware of range for home team odds. Here comes Captain Hindsight again to save the day. In fairness this one is more a question of tightening up as I go and noticing things as they play out. -1.48pts (-£2.37).
Linfield v Larne. This scenario so far kills!!! Linfield fell behind 0-1 in the 59th. Laid under 1.5 70th minute. Ended 1-2. +.98pt (+£1.57).
Wanderers v Boston (Uruguay) AAAARRRRGGGHHHHH!!!! First game of the Apertura and hadn't realised. I made a rule ages ago that 4 matches minimum per team in table must have been played. This was a clear mistake and SHOULD NEVER HAVE BEEN. No Captain Hindsight needed here. -1.18pts (-£1.89).
Total p/l for the day -3.2pts (-£5.12)
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Better start today. Although it was on the sheet I didn't get chance to post. Early hours anyway in San Jose and I imagine I was the only one awake haha!
Will do a proper update for yesterday soon also.
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It's absolutely no good now but Uruguay is first game in the league after they moved to Apertura. Should never have been a selection and something else I need to check on in future.
Today was disappointing but it didn't need to be.
We move.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Couple of losers early on that really shouldn't have taken and wouldn't again but that's no good today. I said the system/strategy would get more solid over time. Just may take quite a long time to reach full potential....although hopefully not. Decent trade on Linfield. I then had a perfect opportunity for 2nd FHG in Young Boys which somehow I missed.
To be fair, trades will be missed as I carry out living so can't be too annoyed at that. Still one potential inplay in Uruguay.
Probably best that you didn’t suggest people lay Young Boys. Let’s be honest.
Maybe if I'd just quoted the away team haha
Totally meant Basel anyway
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@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Couple of losers early on that really shouldn't have taken and wouldn't again but that's no good today. I said the system/strategy would get more solid over time. Just may take quite a long time to reach full potential....although hopefully not. Decent trade on Linfield. I then had a perfect opportunity for 2nd FHG in Young Boys which somehow I missed.
To be fair, trades will be missed as I carry out living so can't be too annoyed at that. Still one potential inplay in Uruguay.
Probably best that you didn’t suggest people lay Young Boys. Let’s be honest.
Maybe if I'd just quoted the away team haha
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0
