Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@darri Also, the greatest irony here is that as I finally feel I'm ready to succeed here, I've lost the reason for wanting it to succeed in the first place. Aint life a bitch!
Main thing I need now is to build a decent life for my kids home away from home.
Bud i started trading from a nasty gambling habit that lost me my job, my relationship with my family, my home, i was living in a homeless b&b.
I had to make a fight or flight decision on what to do in life. Its not the same situation but it has the same contagious effects. I had around £110 in my pocket at the time. That was 2017. In 2021 iv now got my own business and im trading betfair full time too. This does work. We can build at a rapid pace. It not the end. Iv rebuilt my ties with family which for you will be your kids and keeping them close. We cannot force trading tho. Im glad to hear your discipline is there and ill be reading over the next few months how this goes. Like iv said everyone wants you to do well mate. For me iv seen you try this for years and not really get going as much as you wanted. This right now can be a moment in your life to change that.Get rid of these leagues like Kazakhstan and Guatemala, get super tight rather than just see what leagues could be profitable, actually only trade the best ones. Find just 2 angles. I make around 30-40%/points a month from football doing only 2 things. It is possible. I only use 2% staking on the lates and only 4% on the shgs. I dont see how your gonna make a £60 bank support you immediately? Even if you manage to make 20% a month thats still gonna take time to compound. What kind of returns are you aiming for? Im not posting negatives im posting questions so i can see if at all i can help. Iv been in dire situations mate. Can you add any income end of month say towards that £60 to scale it faster?
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer so you have a £60 bank right now? From what are you hoping to be making each month to be supporting you? Just trying to see if there is any other way mate to approach this mentally and pressure wise. Fight or flight in betting sounds ominous.
That league post you just did will only work when you have a £60 bank and your stakes are small if you want this to be a main source of income long term these leagues wont work. Kazakhstan and Guatemala leagues are not the answer even if you are needing to rush this.
Id happily sit and chat with you to come up with a simpler solution. You do not need to be doing so many angles to be doing enough money wise. If £60 is all you have right now and if you lose that this is over please speak to either the btc guys or me and lets sort something out for you.
By the way, I won't be moving out until I can afford to so it's just a question of as soon as possible. Plus I'm going to add £5.00 a week until one lay is more than this anyway and it becomes pointless.
I have no timeframe in mind, just as soon as possible really.....that's it. Until then I'll be sleeping on a mattress on my daughters floor....yay haha!
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Where I'm approaching this differently from anything I've done before is that I'm recording all data regardless of whether it was a trade or not. It's allowing me to see the big picture. All this is down to the excel smart filters which I'd never used before. Makes a massive difference.
By thway , in terms of leagues, I've already knocked a few on the head as they dont even have enough liquidity for my £1.00 lays haha!! Honduras for one, so please don't thoink I'm just going to plough on with them all through thick and thing. Turkey Liga 1 will have to go at some point too as liquidity not great.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer so you have a £60 bank right now? From what are you hoping to be making each month to be supporting you? Just trying to see if there is any other way mate to approach this mentally and pressure wise. Fight or flight in betting sounds ominous.
That league post you just did will only work when you have a £60 bank and your stakes are small if you want this to be a main source of income long term these leagues wont work. Kazakhstan and Guatemala leagues are not the answer even if you are needing to rush this.
Id happily sit and chat with you to come up with a simpler solution. You do not need to be doing so many angles to be doing enough money wise. If £60 is all you have right now and if you lose that this is over please speak to either the btc guys or me and lets sort something out for you.
My stakes are in line with my bank for sure. Not overstaking. Certain leagues will fall away due to not being able to scale. But my average lay odds are way less than I've looked at before too so it allows for a few small issues as they come up.
Appreciate your advice. It's not my only iron in the fire. It's one of a few but it's my best right now.
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@darri Also, the greatest irony here is that as I finally feel I'm ready to succeed here, I've lost the reason for wanting it to succeed in the first place. Aint life a bitch!
Main thing I need now is to build a decent life for my kids home away from home.
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@richard-latimer so you have a £60 bank right now? From what are you hoping to be making each month to be supporting you? Just trying to see if there is any other way mate to approach this mentally and pressure wise. Fight or flight in betting sounds ominous.
That league post you just did will only work when you have a £60 bank and your stakes are small if you want this to be a main source of income long term these leagues wont work. Kazakhstan and Guatemala leagues are not the answer even if you are needing to rush this.
Id happily sit and chat with you to come up with a simpler solution. You do not need to be doing so many angles to be doing enough money wise. If £60 is all you have right now and if you lose that this is over please speak to either the btc guys or me and lets sort something out for you.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer hey bud just logged in and saw this, good to see you back posting mate
As far as this goes trading wise please be careful. The mindset of this needing to work financially iv never ever seen end well for anyone. This stuff takes time to compound. There is absolutely no golden strategy that will cure that process. Yes some strategies work better than others but never think you are winning all the time. I do know you were joking about the premium charge line
but personally i want to see you do well and use this whole thing as a positive for change rather than a necessity. If you put pressure on yourself to make this work it just wont end well. Youll have runs good and bad but that mindset bleeds into trading decisions. Trust me when i came into trading this was my mindset too.This sheet you have posted highlights some of the negative things you were doing before. Yes its a from one filter but mate all these angles are far too much. There is no way your gonna be able to handle micro managing all this during a busy weekend when 3-4 matches are on at a time. Is there not some way you can look at your results and pinpoint the best performing scenarios? The reason you were error prone before is you were looking at too much, too many leagues, too many trades etc. Like in the above pic your trading kazakhstan league, you know what im trying to say here bud.
We all want you to come out of this in as good a position possible. You have been trying at this for years now mate and maybe its time to take a change of approach and try to think about less. We have all at some stage advised this to you. We arent saying it to trod on any morale we are saying it to help you because we want you and everyone else to do as well as possible. This game we play aint easy and anyone winning is a positive for us all. Please have a massive think about this before jumping straight back in. Id be happy to have a convo with you mate to come up with a good approach here, one that doesnt rely on inplay stats etc and just get this all a bit more streamlined. Im sure the BTC lads would be delighted to help also man just reach out before jumping in again please.
Just read the rest. It's definitely less. Aren't many weekends I find myself too busy with these. Only had 1 tonight.I know what you mean but this is why I've written everything down for myself as a quick checklist. I'd rather miss a trade than makke a bad one and I can assure you 100% my discipline is rock solid at the moment. I've got in to a game by mistake and as soon as I realised I got out for small red. Would not have done that in the past.
Trust me, there are familiar things BUT I am also looking at it from a completely different viewpoint than ever before. There are many different angles but it's all just different scores on the whole and points me to when I need to move on rather than pushing me to take more on.
If it's not 100% right, I remove the (now silent - may as well not p**s her off anymore while still here haha) notification from my phone and forget about it until I do my updates on the whole thing.
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@darri said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
@richard-latimer hey bud just logged in and saw this, good to see you back posting mate
As far as this goes trading wise please be careful. The mindset of this needing to work financially iv never ever seen end well for anyone. This stuff takes time to compound. There is absolutely no golden strategy that will cure that process. Yes some strategies work better than others but never think you are winning all the time. I do know you were joking about the premium charge line
but personally i want to see you do well and use this whole thing as a positive for change rather than a necessity. If you put pressure on yourself to make this work it just wont end well. Youll have runs good and bad but that mindset bleeds into trading decisions. Trust me when i came into trading this was my mindset too.This sheet you have posted highlights some of the negative things you were doing before. Yes its a from one filter but mate all these angles are far too much. There is no way your gonna be able to handle micro managing all this during a busy weekend when 3-4 matches are on at a time. Is there not some way you can look at your results and pinpoint the best performing scenarios? The reason you were error prone before is you were looking at too much, too many leagues, too many trades etc.
We all want you to come out of this in as good a position possible. You have been trying at this for years now mate and maybe its time to take a change of approach and try to think about less. We have all at some stage advised this to you. We arent saying it to trod on any morale we are saying it to help you because we want you and everyone else to do as well as possible. This game we play aint easy and anyone winning is a positive for us all. Please have a massive think about this before jumping straight back in.
Totally get you on the needing to work but I have to move on and this is most positive looking income stream I have available so far. I'm looking at businesses with my cousin and I earn a part time self employed living but if I don't want to find myself in council accommodation or forcing through an unprofitable sale of my house and forcing my kids into a council house then I really have no other choice.
Fight or flight, sink or swim and it's focused me no end.
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So here's tomorrows:
Anybody wanting to keep track. Study the picture I put up of the match scenario requirements or better still look at my sheet and the tab home copy sheet where I've recorded it all.
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@richard-latimer hey bud just logged in and saw this, good to see you back posting mate
As far as this goes trading wise please be careful. The mindset of this needing to work financially iv never ever seen end well for anyone. This stuff takes time to compound. There is absolutely no golden strategy that will cure that process. Yes some strategies work better than others but never think you are winning all the time. I do know you were joking about the premium charge line
but personally i want to see you do well and use this whole thing as a positive for change rather than a necessity. If you put pressure on yourself to make this work it just wont end well. Youll have runs good and bad but that mindset bleeds into trading decisions. Trust me when i came into trading this was my mindset too.This sheet you have posted highlights some of the negative things you were doing before. Yes its a from one filter but mate all these angles are far too much. There is no way your gonna be able to handle micro managing all this during a busy weekend when 3-4 matches are on at a time. Is there not some way you can look at your results and pinpoint the best performing scenarios? The reason you were error prone before is you were looking at too much, too many leagues, too many trades etc. Like in the above pic your trading kazakhstan league, you know what im trying to say here bud.
We all want you to come out of this in as good a position possible. You have been trying at this for years now mate and maybe its time to take a change of approach and try to think about less. We have all at some stage advised this to you. We arent saying it to trod on any morale we are saying it to help you because we want you and everyone else to do as well as possible. This game we play aint easy and anyone winning is a positive for us all. Please have a massive think about this before jumping straight back in. Id be happy to have a convo with you mate to come up with a good approach here, one that doesnt rely on inplay stats etc and just get this all a bit more streamlined. Im sure the BTC lads would be delighted to help also man just reach out before jumping in again please.
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Another thing I no longer care about league selection. As long as the liquidity is there and it fits I'll play. What I've noticed since tracking all this data is that match scenario, pre-match odds and over/under odds for each half are way more important than what league a team is playing in.
I've had a couple from Guatemala which I'd always avoided. Decent odds and an easy win. Poland Division 2 had always given me problems. Not so on these so far. Bundesliga I found to be a nightmare and the same could be said for Italy Serie A. So far so good. When the match odds don't suggest a 0-0 is unlikely I'll leave it and a couple of 0-0's have been missed this way. Best trades so far for Bundesliga when the teams can't stop scoring and you enter late for yet another which invariably seems to come.
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I worked out that I'm looking at ave lay odds of around 2.3 as well. So anywhere close to current strike rate keeps up and I'll be taking my £60.00 all the way to premium charge heaven in the blink of an eye haha!!
I'll aim to post potentials for the next day in here each night or sometimes the next morning. I won't be putting individual trades on the football thread as I simply don't have time and need to put all my concentration into making sure I make zero mistakes or close as damn it!
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I'm ready to share where I'm up to with my trading following my recent car crash of a life. I'll need this to perform as it's shown in order to address my current financial shitshow following everything that's happened so feel free to point out any problems and areas where I can improve. Despite having over 300 selections from one filter (looking at many different angles) I am still only 4-5 months in and everything is still being tweaked and adjusted where necessary.
First off, the results:
These are the many scenerios I am looking at from my filter. Only when all the i's have been crossed and the t's have been dotted will I make a move. I don't care about the inplay stats (quite often they will pick up as soon as I get in when they're tripe. Gala today was awful but it fit and so I pulled the trigger in the 70th minute.)
When I say 2H2 scr that means I want 2 2nd half goals prior to entering. They must fit the required goal times though for each scenario.
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@richard-latimer hope it works itself out soon bud!
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Got a lot of personal s**t to sort out so I'll be taking a break from posting and updating but I still need to update the sheet for myself and I'll keep udpating guidelines so everything will still be there if anyone is following.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Unable to post today nut it's all on the sheet along with guidelines of what I'm looking for. Will update later or tomorrow.
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Also forgot to rule out the games with Home ave over 2.4 so that's Stuttgart II and Hearts gone for now as well. Will of course track.
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Revised list following all my checks this morning, ruling out leagues just starting and teams where some of the results used are in stronger/weaker leagues:
Differently to a normal Saturday I am including the leagues that would normally have little liquidity. See what happens there.
I'm also stopping with the blanket wiping of all 3pm games as most Saturdays are just passing e by in a haze of nothingness of recent. That's not to say I'll go grazy but I want to start collecting the data without prejudice.
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1/1 today. Off to bed now but going to try and get up early for Iwata which starts @ 5am. Bloody stupid times haha!
Will double check all these in the morning but Iwata seems good depending on odds and match scenario.
