Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

CC Mariners didn't qualify for LCS today on account of the max home odds limit for 1-0 being 1.69 thus far. Nothing to change view on that so far despite today.

That said, when I looked into things a little more this morning something else became apparent as is so often the case.

I had minimum odds limit for over 0.5 SH as 1.12 (remember, these are all taken from ave book price on oddsportal). When I opened that particular criteria out just to get a look at the overall picture I noticed there were too more winners under that limit (1.09 & 1.10). When I imposed the limit it wasn't because I'd had losers at those limits, just no winners yet. Always prefer to exclude and let stuff in rather than the other way around if I remember. It's better for me this way.

Anyway, I follow the data so both Gladbach and Gent are now on the qualifiers. No good for now but very important for the future rounding this thing out.

Don't worry about Lorient. that was already there.

[Richard Latimer]

No that's not right. Get rid of both Sweden games. All others check out fine.

[Richard Latimer]

Finally got a few to look at again:

[Richard Latimer]

Spreadsheet is showing the last 6 trades (COULD HAVE BEEN) as winners.

Al ruled out by the smallest little detail plainly and simply because I didn't have it in my data yet. Going forward they would all be selections until the data tells me otherwwise. Sods law, next time it would be another slight detail missing haha!! Either way, that's how I'm reverse engineering this thing. For clarity it was:

Kansas ruled out by 3rd second half goal coming a minute too late according to the data I had
Wellington Phoenix ruled out by scoreline after the 2nd second half goal not being one I had any data for on the angle I was looking at (a goal in the 60's and another in the 70's).
KR Reykjavik ruled out on odds
Offenbach ruled out on odds
Dortmund II ruled out on odds and home ave being higher than what I had data for

Finally tonight, Grotta, ruled out on odds.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

I can hardly contain myself. In truth it's going to end up as a non qualifier for sure haha!

Odds too skinny otherwise I'd have been on that for LCS 70th. Oh well.

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

I can hardly contain myself. In truth it's going to end up as a non qualifier for sure haha!

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

Careful with your excitement levels else you will trade prematurely!

[Richard Latimer]

Under 5hrs now til the big kick off!!!

[Richard Latimer]

Here we go......Bumper Day!

[Richard Latimer]

Literally sweet FA tomorrow

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Nothing doing tonight in the end. Better than another loser haha!

That said, 2 came very close, both won. Could be qualifiers in future so all good.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing doing tonight in the end. Better than another loser haha!

[Richard Latimer]

@ryan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Some of these look good on the current data

Thanks. Because I'm looking at each scoreline and angle individually it's taking a long time to build up a good data set for each but I believe it will be worth it long-term.

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer Some of these look good on the current data

[Richard Latimer]

Neither of todays qualified. Here's Tuesdays:

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one poor trade today as well as a last minute lay on under 0.5 in Tokyo. Woke up, had a feeling it qualifed and no time to look properly. That said it was 10p haha!! Anymore and I would have done the checks.

Smouha. Laid under 4.5 70th minute. lost. -1.04pts (-£1.70)

Didn't see the home red but hadn't checked either. Lessson learned. I won't always stay away because of a red but this was definitely one to stay away from.

Tomorrow..... whole lot of nothing. Will stay up hoping for a trade on the Philadelphia game other than it's Chile tomorrow eve.

[Richard Latimer]

Not a massive amount left today. Was way more between than hours of midnight to 07:00 am FFS!!!

Dukla is a dead rubber but could still throw up a FH trade.

[Richard Latimer]

Yesterday wasn't exactly a car crash but not great either. First things first, full transparency, I laid under 1.5 midway through FH in Iwata. Not part of my match scenario strategy but more in tune with seeeing if I could play these a different way. Not big odds so I'll move on from that.

Matched @ 2.22. Lost. -1.22pts (-£1.99)

I didn't have much chance to trade yesterday as I was out with friends enjoying the sun.

Laid under 1.5 70th min in Zhodino @ 2.24. Lost. -1.24pts (-£2.02)
Laid under 3.5 70th min VPS (after 3rd goal scored 47th) @ 2.42. Lost. -1.42pts (-£2.31)

And that was it.

So far today, were it not for sleeping off yesterday I would be starting with 1 green trade in Aus. As it is, I missed it.......bloody unsociable hours football right now!!

Anyway, we move on. My bank isn't going up enough at the moment but still seeing far too much good with this to abandon right now and last few days has been ropey across the board from what I'm seeing.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Sat:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Sat:

In terms of these Boreham wood and Ostrava matches are meaningless last day of the season fodder. Only potential play there will be FH if it fits.

Bromley have something to play for where as Notts County don't. I'll monitor whether that's still the case before any 2nd half entry.