Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Today was going very well until Finland and Norway Obos. In fairness Finland is still in the black so no reason to throw that one away as is. Norway Obos though is now in deficit and so needs a measure of caution.

I'm thinking that perhaps those summer leagues in any kind of deficit when the league is done for a year can be placed on the exclude list and removed from filtered. Should they make a comeback they can be added again easy enough but previous experience has shown that so far once they're gone they don't come back so easy.

Richard Latimer

So I've added countries and leagues to contrarian selections. Interesting to see how that turns out. Time for bed now haha!

Richard Latimer

Feel I need to track countries for these potential lays as well. Some very good results once more but some leagues the favourite just won very easily.

Richard Latimer

Sheet updated for tomorrow. It's my 2nd favourite league coming up at midnight. Ecuador.

Richard Latimer

Putting aside the latest and greatest new idea for a 2nd, there were only 2 filtered selections for over 1.5 bothof which won easily enough. Paraguay again at very decent odds. Unfortunately due to Betfairs constant cocking around with start times and suspending matches early/not going inplay etc....I missed the China game.

Richard Latimer

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

So what's the filters for this. My interest is piqued.

In it's raw form it's simply percentage clean sheets more than opp + 2 goals or more higher than opp totalling 40%+. Derived from looking for winners and then realising how badly they appeared to be doing when the stats hit a certain number and went higher.

John Folan

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

So what's the filters for this. My interest is piqued.

Richard Latimer

Only 2nd day but with such positive initial results it would be a crime not to share what I have so far. Added to sheet under tab titled the Contrarian.

Ryan

@richard-latimer Excused, I make enough typos lol

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Positive results continued into the night with these. I'll have to incorporate them on to the sheet so people can see what I'm seeing if it continues.

16 winners, 8 losses.
Only 2 of the losers have come in around evens, the rest have been lower, way lower and even lower still.

Was a 17th which also won but from what I could see there was little liquidity in Panama.

Biggest problem I can see at the moment is how to reduce such a mammoth list of qualifying selections. These don't even rely on current season data as all I want to do is exploit the reason odds are so short rather than for a teams winning trend to continue.

Excuse typos haha

Richard Latimer

Positive results continued into the night with these. I'll have to incorporate them on to the sheet so people can see what I'm seeing if it continues.

16 winners, 8, 8 losses.
Only 2 of the losers have come in around evens, the rest have been lower, way lower and even lower still.

Was a 17th which also won but from what I could see there was little liquidity in Panama.

Biggest problem I can see at the moment is how to reduce such a mammoth list of qualifying selections. These don't even rely on current season data as all I want to did is exploit the reason odds are so short rather than for a a teams winning trend to continue.

Ryan

@simon Ahaha it did start out like a joke didn't it? I was thinking that when I typed it out

Richard Latimer

@ryan-carruthers said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@simon I’ll get these - how many corners does it take to lead to a goal?

Can't remember the exact but I know it averages 1 in 10 games.

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@ryan-carruthers sounds like the start of a joke! I can’t remeber exactly......but lots haha!

Richard Latimer

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Plenty going on tomorrow but only 4 fall under the filtered tab. I'm looking at the whole football is just a crapshoot thing in particular at those with the strongest stats of clean sheets and 2 goals + scored.

Staggering on the small amount so far that have not only failed to win but lost at very short odds.

Not sure I phrased that right. Small amount of data has so far produced many winning lays for what look like sure things based on clean sheets and 2+ goals scored.

Richard Latimer

Plenty going on tomorrow but only 4 fall under the filtered tab. I'm looking at the whole football is just a crapshoot thing in particular at those with the strongest stats of clean sheets and 2 goals + scored.

Staggering on the small amount so far that have not only failed to win but lost at very short odds.

Ryan

@simon I’ll get these - how many corners does it take to lead to a goal?

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@richard-latimer read it recently too, a good read. Makes you think just how much chance/luck is involved, especially when evenly matched teams play each other.

Love the numbers behind how many corners actually lead to goals too, total myth buster!

Richard Latimer

Just purchased Soccernomics now which looks similar. Love all these books that look at the numbers behind things that happen though.

Richard Latimer

On a side note has anyone ever read 'The Numbers Game'? Just finished it. Quite enlightening. Even with all the stats and marginal gains there is still a huge element of chance to every game. Regardless of odds too.

And a team performing amazingly well will almost always regress to the mean at some point while a team doing the opposite do the same in the other direction.

When a manager is fired and they appear to bounce back for a little bit the results for teams doing similar who don't fire the manager immediately tend to bounce back in the same fashion.

Not conceding is more valuable to a win than scoring one. Only scoring 2 gives the same high percentage chance of winning as keeping a clean sheet.

It's given me a few things to look at in terms of sides.