Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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There's a strange thing happening in first halfs and of course I have to put the caveat of very little data but initially it seems that games with a goal in the first 9 minutes are less likely to see another FHG than those between 10 & 24.
I really can't think of any particular reason for this right now but it's interesting all the same.
Maybe a team is shellshocked and retreats deeper if they concede so early. Doesn't really account for superior team not putting them to the sword though.
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For todays trading plan which was considerably reduced, it was a mixed bag and prob break even.
2x early FHG's followed by......no more FHG's. Yes, I'm looking at you Sturm and Portsmouth.
2x 2nd halfs with early goals and crucially late goals. Stand up and take a bow Sturn (again) and Brescia. -
@richard-latimer Rapid Vienna, played the game 1-0 32 mins,
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No joy in the FH yet but in terms of 2nd half its goals breeding goals again.
Late late one in Sturm, bang on 75th in Brescia.
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Typical example of my mistakes, Cliftonville FHG ave today not good enough to get involved in FH market.
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@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I'm cutting my paper trades down today as I would have to look to do in reality. Taking the most exciting parts of what I have and simply moving the rest to the side for now.
Everyone knows (or should that) while 0-0 is the least likely scoreline in football it is also the scoreline which heralds the least number of goals after a certain point in a game. Yes, there can be value and often is but as seen in Jan, there could be a fair bit of variance some months. Under 50% from 67th minute I think it was for January. Those are crazy figures and while you can sit and remove every league where you get a poor result you can also do what I'm doing which is to avoid them entirely. I must add that were I not finding so many other avenues of potentially greater value I wouldn't be so quick to come to this conclusion.
I am also continuing to track them in the background so nothing will ever truly go away.
However.....leaning in the direction I am currently leaning, what I am seeing so far is no requirement to remove any leagues at all. The dominant factor appears to be goals, when they were scored, who they were scored by and what the odds of said team winning are/were pre kick-off.
I have taken everything on board about mastering one strat before moving on to another and while this is several different ways of playing one game I don't believe it is really any more than one strat, just adapting to the odds and what is happening on the field.
I have but one filter and it is giving me all the angles I currently need.
FHG+ Early goal is scored by a fave of 2.2 or below prior to 23rd minute. At this point I will wait until the 30th minute (29 mins on the clock) to lay under 1.5 FH. FH home ave must also be 0.7 or above and ave book price for FH goal must not be below 1.26 currently.
LCS Score is 1-1 @ HT, ave book price for H2 over 0.5 is 1.14min and no further scores where game is approaching 70mins. Home ave for H2 must be 0.7 or above but overall ave must not be any lower than 1.6 or any higher than 2.3. 70th minute (69 mins on the clock) entry for this.
LCS70. 2 differing ways of dealing. With a home fave of 2.2 or less and an early goal that puts home side into a 1 goal loss I would look to enter for another goal on 70mins. For a home team of no higher than 3.58 put into a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline by an early goal (pre 60mins) I would look for another goal with a 70th minute entry.
LCS75 needs 2 quick goals by either team making any scoreline. Would enter for another 75th minute.
LCS80 needs 2 quick goals pre 60 minute mark and another pre 70 minute mark. Would enter for another in the 80th.
I don't have a massive amount of data but I'm collecting it every day and what I do have is incredibly favourable.
Goals breed goals and those on top breed more goals.
I neglected to say the fave must be home team in FHG. I find entirely even games or those favouring the away team are entirely inconsistent when it comes to FHG.
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I'm cutting my paper trades down today as I would have to look to do in reality. Taking the most exciting parts of what I have and simply moving the rest to the side for now.
Everyone knows (or should that) while 0-0 is the least likely scoreline in football it is also the scoreline which heralds the least number of goals after a certain point in a game. Yes, there can be value and often is but as seen in Jan, there could be a fair bit of variance some months. Under 50% from 67th minute I think it was for January. Those are crazy figures and while you can sit and remove every league where you get a poor result you can also do what I'm doing which is to avoid them entirely. I must add that were I not finding so many other avenues of potentially greater value I wouldn't be so quick to come to this conclusion.
I am also continuing to track them in the background so nothing will ever truly go away.
However.....leaning in the direction I am currently leaning, what I am seeing so far is no requirement to remove any leagues at all. The dominant factor appears to be goals, when they were scored, who they were scored by and what the odds of said team winning are/were pre kick-off.
I have taken everything on board about mastering one strat before moving on to another and while this is several different ways of playing one game I don't believe it is really any more than one strat, just adapting to the odds and what is happening on the field.
I have but one filter and it is giving me all the angles I currently need.
FHG+ Early goal is scored by a fave of 2.2 or below prior to 23rd minute. At this point I will wait until the 30th minute (29 mins on the clock) to lay under 1.5 FH. FH home ave must also be 0.7 or above and ave book price for FH goal must not be below 1.26 currently.
LCS Score is 1-1 @ HT, ave book price for H2 over 0.5 is 1.14min and no further scores where game is approaching 70mins. Home ave for H2 must be 0.7 or above but overall ave must not be any lower than 1.6 or any higher than 2.3. 70th minute (69 mins on the clock) entry for this.
LCS70. 2 differing ways of dealing. With a home fave of 2.2 or less and an early goal that puts home side into a 1 goal loss I would look to enter for another goal on 70mins. For a home team of no higher than 3.58 put into a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline by an early goal (pre 60mins) I would look for another goal with a 70th minute entry.
LCS75 needs 2 quick goals by either team making any scoreline. Would enter for another 75th minute.
LCS80 needs 2 quick goals pre 60 minute mark and another pre 70 minute mark. Would enter for another in the 80th.
I don't have a massive amount of data but I'm collecting it every day and what I do have is incredibly favourable.
Goals breed goals and those on top breed more goals.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.
Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.
Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.
Although not inplay and not part of my trading plan for what ultimately played out today it did have 2 late goals so do I include it or not in sheet? My gut says yes because it's part of the data subset. Would I be so keen if it had lost though haha?!
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Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.
Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.
Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.
Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.
When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.
This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.
54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what ithey were for a FHG, possibly even better it?
It's actually 66% from 29 selections - was looking at goals from 24mins onwards as opposed to 30mins. Still plenty good enough and initally much better than 0-1 which is so far a bit meh.
In fairness looking at 30mins + with 0-1 also takes that down to 50% 12 selections before tonight.
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I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.
Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.
When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.
This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.
54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what they were for a FHG, possibly even better it?
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
A win in Randers for 2nd half lcs. Goal coming on 68.
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@mark-gorton Went in at 81 mins U1.5 at 1.65....I was happy with the way the game was moving but it wasn't to be.
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@richard-latimer OK Richard I will let you know when I do. Because they are only £2 bets I laid U1.5 on 29 mins but cant remember the odds although they were OK. Not done anything the second half as but might go in at 1.7 in a couple of minutes again small odds.
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@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:
C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
If you are doing these for small stakes would be good if you can get some live prices?
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C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...
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@richard-latimer Waiting with baited breath lol
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Viitorul about to move into 2nd FHG territory.
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Flash in the pan or better entry point for a 2nd FHG. This last weekend showed me the 30th minute could bee slightly better than 31st. For the 1 or 2 ticks you'd lose in value you potentially grab a few more fish on the hook.
Small data so far but 61% s/r from 41 selections hitting a 2nd FHG in 30th minute. By 30 mins you have cut the odds down to under evens for most I am pretty sure and sometime a fair bit under.
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Bit of time:
