Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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For today:
I've highlighted games that pretty much from the outset are dead but be ok for a FH play or possibly if it's free flowing in the 2nd half could fit one of the goals galore angles. If it's just a late goal in a game supposedly devoid of much 2nd half attack I will leave well alone.
It's the last matches of a long season.
Some others such as Eintracht Frankfurt (outside chance at present foor Freiburg to get 7th and Europe), Gent v Mechelen (clash to seee who gets Europe) have all to play for at present but it may look slightly different 20 minutes from the end.
Wrexham and Germany Regionalliga teams look devoid of anything to play for but it's not the last game and so they can't pack the suitcase just yet.
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One bit of analysing on the 1-1 HT scoreline I'm doing is making me wonder whether in time it will be best to split these between those that intially went 1-0 and those that went 0-1. Different scenarios call for different parameters. Not doing anything at present but it's definitely something I'm looking at and much like the 1-1 after an early 2nd half goal was improved by doing this I feel it could do the same for 1-1 HT score.
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I'm updating everything from yesterday. First things first it was 2/3 on the posted trades with only the lay under 2.5 in Argentiina letting me down @ 1.99.
Lay under 2.5 Kopavogur 70th minute @ 2.8. Ends 1-3. +.98pt (£1.57)
Lay under 2.5 Victoriano A. 70th minute @ 1.99. Ends 1-1. -.99pt (-£1.58)
Lay under 3.5 Breidablik 80th minute @ 1.79. Ends 4-0. +.98pt (£1.57)Total p/l for the day +.97pt (£1.56)
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This is what I have for tomorrow:
Iceland have now played enough games to be be considered. 3 games in Switzerland although from the outset they all appear to be dead rubbers on the last day of the season.
Depending on what happens and if they qualify I may or may not go for some sort of FH entry. In all likelihood though I will stay away from the last 20 minutes of those games. for
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Just the one trade today on a 2nd FHG in Switzerland. Laid under 1.5 FH @ 2.04. HT 0-1. -1.04pts (-£1.66).
Hopefully a more interesting day tomorrow.
As an aside, The Wil trade seemed ok at the time but as I always do I look back after any negative result. Not because I expect to be able to rule them all out but to see if there is anthing obvious that can be tightened until the data shows otherwise.
I did manage to find a small tweak where initial results on this particular angle had been soso and outliers where it only removed a few results. Trade is struck from the sheet in terms of red or green although of course data is still there in case I ever tweak the other way.
In addition, I mentioned on the football forum that Wil was close to being a 70th minute entry for me on laying against correct score. The odds were just less than all results I had for this angle so at the time it didn't qualify. In future it would until the data shows me otherwise.
Was irrelvant tonight in any case as my son took my phone and hid it because he didn't want me looking at it while we were watching Jupiters Legacy haha!
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Not a massive amount going on tomorrow. May get something, who knows!
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First trades of the week:
Perth Glory. Laid under 1.5 @ 3.05 70th min. Ends 2-1. +.95pt (£1.52)
Novi Pazar (Serbia) Laid under 0.5 FH 20th min @ 2.7. 1-0 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.57)
Choj (Poland) Laid under 0.5 FH (around 20th - I was busy) @ 2.06. 0-0 @ HT. -1.06pts (-£1.70)
Choj (again) Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.26. Ends 2-0. +.98pt (£1.57)Total p/l for the day
1.85pts (£2.96)
Bank stands @ £70.26 -
Hopefully a few of these will qualify tomorrow:
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Nothing today.
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Here's Tuesdays potentials:
Over the weekend I went looking to try and complete my sheet which is to say I was sure there were certain scorelines I could still make a play from. It's a not a case of trying to get more trades per se but being able to find the ability to for example miss 4 or 5 trades at a weekend and still have some I can get on when it's most convenient.
Some of the biggest gaps were 2-1 @ HT and no further goals.
What I guess you could call the any unquoted range of scores from betfair @ HT.
And the games where goals come in quick flurries at certain late periods of the game. Beyond 70 minutes for a FG the winners are sporadic but that's ok as if I'm meant to be in the trade hopefully I will be by that point.
2 goals in the 60-69 period seems to work well on the face of it and 1 in the 60's, 2 in the 70's also. Data set small but the idea is follow the data until it's no longer a good idea. It's the basis behind everything.
Checked through all Tuesdays and while some have nothing to play for I will monitor how they are playing before getting involved should they hit criteria. They also have another game after tomorrow so can't quite pack the suitcase yet.
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I'll update Sundays before I post anything for tomorrow:
San Jose Earthquakes. Laid under 1.5 70th minute @2.58. Ends 0-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Oostende. Laid under 1.5 FH goals 25th minute @ 2.02. 0-2 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.57)
Utrecht. Laid under 2.5 70th minute @ 2.36. Ends 1-1. -1.36pts (-£2.18)
Hammarby. Laid under 3.5 70th minute @ 2.84. Ends 2-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Legia. Laid under 1.5 70th minute @ 2.82. Ends 1-0. -1.82pts (-£2.91)P/L for the day 0.74pt (£1.19)
So green but the sheet looks so much better than the actual and other than a few results there's no reason for it.
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Couple I was watching but nothing materialised
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@richard-latimer Seems to be a recurring theme for most of us
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Nothing today
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If anyone fancies having a look at the sheet I've left it filtered on qualifying trades only under the home analysis tab rather than all the data which is what I work from. As you can see, it SHOULD be a piece of p**s to make money from this and a lot of it.
Obviously there is way too much hindsight at the moment but assuming these are not all a bunch of giant coincidences and what I'm seeing is what's likely going to continue then there wouldn't be a single loss since the 9th May right now.
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In case anyone has insomnia. I've got to work so will have to sit this one out!
No idea if Cyprus even on Betfair but it's on the filter and so worth checking at the very least.
All criteria I'm using is listed below. There should be no question of motivation as these are all leagues just starting or somewhere in the middle.
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Just updating my sheet before bed so I'll prob have to do the fulll update. Nowhere near as good as it should be but made small green after a last good trade on Lorient.
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So I don't miss them, the following games are highlighted as potentials for FH goals:
Klagenfurt
Vikingur
Legia
Barca -
One other thing, the matches with home ave 1.5 are only for tracking at this stage. I started off with values that low and then before I implemented the smart filters which allowed me to track everything while keeping it separate I removed them. Have only just added them back to the filter as I want to see if they cann be of use. Need at least a month of data before I will even consider using them.
Today those matches are LASK Linz and Gorica.
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Here are todays:
I spent last night trying to go through ways of making the 0-2 and 2-1 @ HT profitable as well as refining and bettering the 1-1 scoreline after an early goal and while I have no way to ensure it continues as it has been there is promise I could have done all 3.
The sheet and posting I'm making this morning relfects that. It's a moving playing field which will hopefully move less and less over time.
As I stated previously, if anyone intends to follow along please ensure you check leagues are at least 4 matches in (I think I've done this purely for fitness more than anything but where Apertura's are concerned if one team has already won the clausura this could affect what they do in the apertura.....or vice versa).
Any questions other than that, please ask and if I'm around I'll answer.
