Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Ok so full update. Pretty much another scratch day.
Riterai (Lithuania). Laid under 3.5 70th minute @ 2.16. No further goals and a quick check of my sheet shows 3 matches with this criteria and a 1-2 score line. All have remained 1-2. It was avoidable and annoying. -1.16pts (-£1.86)
RB Salzburg. Missed FHG......GRRRRRR
Lausanne (Swiss). Laid under 2.5 FH goals 25th minute @ 2.18. No further FH goals. -1.18pts (-£1.89). This result prompted me to look for a correlation between where the first 2 goals had gone in the other qualifiers and almost all had either gone 1-1 or 2-0 before seeing a 3rd. Only 4 as of today have gone 0-2 in the FH and from those it was a 50/50 split as of now.
An outlier and also also a 50/50 proposition so far. Easy to avoid in future. From the other it's something like 7 wins and 1 loss on the 1-1's and 10 wins, 1 loss on the 2-0's so it makes sense to follow the data unless it leads me back here.
Frankfurt. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.76. Ends 1-1. +.98pt (£1.57)
Lausanne (again). Laid under 3.5 70th min @ 2.88. Ends 2-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Roma. Laid under 0.5 FH goal 20th min @ 2.78. 0-0 @ HT. -1.78pts (-£2.85) GRRRR!!!!!
Roma. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 3.35. Ends 5-0 and goal came 72nd. +.98pt (£1.57)
Nacional Potosi (Bolivia). Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.22. Ends 2-1. +.98pt (£1.57)minus a few pence today.
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There it is. Full update coming.
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Just entered the Bolivian for a late one. Would be nice to end on a good note. Problem isn't missing a couple as I've had 3 wins already today, problem is the ones I shouldn't have had. Roma was avoidable and the other 2 have just come to light for avoidance in the future.
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Still got a Bolivian game on the potentials which could qualify for a SHG at some stage but all in all it's been a bit pish today.
Already mentioned how it started. Didn't get much better or thankfully worse so it's pretty mcuh as you were heading in to another week but with some good lessons and a few ideas moving forward.
I mentioned about not missing FHG, well equally it's no good accidentally getting into them when criteria isn't 100% there and it's much the same thing as missing one this morning. Noticed 20 mins in Roma could well have been a FHG play and checked everything but the ave book price against my criteria. Noticed too late it wasn't quite there and tried to get out. When that failed, the price went down meaning bigger red and Roma were piling on the pressure so were sure to score. They didn't and it's a balls up on the FHG's today.
From tomorrow I'm going to mark out the likely games where FHG could come into play to highlight these. When it's a 2nd FHG or a 3rd then I'm already alert having been notified of the first goal. It's just when you get a quiet notification to let you know a match has started it's easy to miss until too late.
So anyway.
Lausanne qualified for a 3rd FHG going 0-2 down but a little later I noticed most of the green trades were coming from 1-1's and 2-0's, not 0-2's. 0-2's are now a outlying 50% split probability I will ignore unless the data tells me not to. No good for today but this wasn't really an issue.
Late goal Frankfurt came in.
Late goal Lausanne came in.
Late goal Roma came in.Will update properly after the last game finishes but just wanted to make a start.
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Not been providing updates throughout the day really since I started but going to write a couple of things now. First trade today a bust but looking back I'm not sure why it was even a trade at all. Odds low enough so again not the end of the world but not helping when I need to kick on.
For the 3 quick goals angle which is doing very well and has an entry of 75th minute the only 1-2 scores entered were losses. Surprise surprise today made 3 losses. Easily rectified and I retain full confidence on this.
Missed FHG trade. Of recent there's a couple of not exactly mistakes creeping in but lack of awareness in when games are starting. Today RB Salzburg scored exactly in exactly 20th minute. It qualified and I missed it.
So instead of being a point up today I'm down just a point. A little more concentration and it's a different story. No harm, no foul, put it right for the future.
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And here it is. Todays potentials due to start in a just a tick:
Nothing changed from yesterday but I'lll enter 5mins earlier after 2 quick goals up to 59th now (providing all criteria met) and also 5 mins earlier after the 3 goals (again, assuming all criteria met).
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3 good trades and then a couple where I gave it back. To say they weren't good trades in my opinion would be wrong. Just the way it goes:
Daegu v Incheon. Laid under 2.5 goals 70th min @ 2.18. Ended 3-0. +.98pt (£1.57)
Reading v Huddersfeld. Laid under 2.5 goals FH 25th min @ 1.99. 2-1 @ HT. +.98pt (£1.57)
Hammarby v Sirius. Laid under 4.5 80th min @ 1.87. Ended 3-2. +.98pt (£1.57)
Lyon v Lorient. Laid under 0.5 FH @ 2.64. 0-0 @ HT. - 1.64pts (-£2.62)
Orebro v Halmstads. Laid under 0.5 70th min @ 2.22. Ended 1-0. -1.22pts (-£1.95)a few pence profit in the end.
A couple of near misses today. So much so that I went through to see if I was missing a lot with a few of my entry points and for the small amount of difference in waiting 5 minutes in a couple of the angles there's quite a few winning trades being missed. With that in mind I've altered a couple of the entry points moving forward.
Would only have effected one match today (Schaffhausen missed by 1 minute @ 2-2 79th.
As is, with these corrections in place both Friday and Sat would have been small wins. Instead Friday was a slight loss (not helped by missing Sociedad) and today was scratch.
Nothing until 11am earliest so will post up in the morning.
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Full list for today exc. Daegu which has been and gone:
Remember, these are ALL JUST POTENTIALS and the vast majority will end up as nothing more than a cursary glance before deleting notifications and moving on. The filter would not be profitable without all the other written criteria below.
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Up literally 5 mins before the entry point for Daegu. Will of course update properly later but a nice start with late 3rd goal.
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Going nowhere and doing nothing in the morning so I'll update Sat selections when I rise. That said Daegu is one to keep an eye on. It's on the sheet under home analysis tab if anyone wants to see.
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Ok so just briefly. My only trade was a 2.16 lay of under 3.5 goals in Hannover 75th min. Scored stayed the same so -1.16pts (-£1.86). I also laid early as my rule is another 5 mins for every additional after the first with 70 being the earliest. 3 goals should have been 80th minute.
Missed Sociedad which was very definitely a qualifier. This would have evened things up somewhat.
Was unsure on Den Bosch as price 1 tick under the lowest i'd seen for the criteria where this almost qualified. Going forward I would include for now although this obviously doesn't help today.
Regardless, 1 losing trade is hardly the end of the world.
On to tomorrow.
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A nothing day today. Small loss and a missed qualifier that went on to win. I'll update properly in a bit.
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Estonia was actually too early in the season there anyway. No harm no foul. Here's Fridays potentials:
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Doesn't look like there's much happening today. One game in Estonia but it's not even top league so I doubt liquidity any good. Will keep an eye.
No qualifier. Onwards to tomorrow.
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Doesn't look like there's much happening today. One game in Estonia but it's not even top league so I doubt liquidity any good. Will keep an eye.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Well depending on when the stats come back I may or may not be able to post tomorrow. Fingers crossed sooner rather than later.
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3 trades today with 2 coming good and the other being small odds:
PJ City Fc (MISC-MIFA as it appears on the stats) v Perak. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.12. No further goals. - 1.12pts (-£1.79)
Pahang v Selangor. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.7. Finished 2-2. +.98pt (+£1.57 after comm.)
Saarbrucken v Magdeburg. Laid under 1.5 70th min @ 2.2. Finished 0-3. +.98pt (+£1.57 after comm.)P/L +.84pt (+£1.35)
New bank stands @ £70.99 -
Wed POTENTIALS, only if ALL criteria are met:
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50/50 split today:
Laid under 0.5 in Kedah vs Johor Darul Takzim (Malaysia)70th min @ 2.22. Ended 0-1. Forced to lay £2.00 at the time when my below minimum didn't go through. Worked out luckily. +.98pt (£1.96)
Laid under 3.5 Cliftonville v Larne 75th minute @ 1.98. Stayed at 3 goals so that one's a loser. -.98pt (-£1.57).Bank @ £69.64 but until I reach and breach the point where I can increase from £1.60 the stake will stay the same.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Investing a further £5.00 into the pot today. New bank £69.25.
New calculated stake @ £1.29. Will only reduce if bank hits £45.01 which is my stop/loss point for the ratchet I'm employing.
One of the hardest things with a small bank without question is staking. Betondroid which I use for placing bets below minimum has for some reason blocked my latest calculated stake and the lowest I can do is £1.60 if I want to increase. Not the end of the world as that's only equivalent to around an £85.00 bank but still annoying.
