Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

As promised:

I don't have enough time to go through everything that didn't qualify. Juat have to hope people read through and can see enough for themselves. That said, there are a few areas of tweaking where I will explain what I'm doing going forward.

First off, Tokyo in the early hours, I'm thinkful I didn't get. Would have been a play but going forward would not. I my angle for 1 quick early SH goal up to 55 and another one up to 69 it qualified. What I noticed when I lookked through again is the small number of matches where home team had high odds actually made the angle worse. For now, moving forward it's a max 3.25 on home odds in this scenario.

I placed a really low odds lay (1.05) when I woke before realising this. Hopefully if anyone else was up, they didn't get burned.

Next Ulm in Germany Regionalliga. Layed 0-0 on 70 for 2.52 as it fit my criteria at the time. Ended 0-0 so as I do with every loss, I look for something that made this different. If I find the difference I take it off the table until there's commonality. With this, a quick scan and I was able to see 1.15 for home odds was the lowest lay of 0-0 I had in my qualified results. I've now upped it to 1.19 for the time being.

A losing selection that in the circumstances tomorrow would be avoided.

Now to the good stuff....

Shakhtar 2--0 up @ HT. Laid 70th minute and late late goal made it 2-1
Heracles 2-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 70th and finished 4-0.
Cibalia 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner
Trencin 1-0 up @ HT, early SH goal, laid 2-0 70th - Winner

Finally, goal crazy in Sesvete with 2 goals in the 50's and one 61st. Score 4-3 on my 70th lay. Unfortunately stayed that way but only an evens lay so no biggie!

Nothing to change on this one at present.

So a 4/6 day which going forward would be 4/5 day. Almost a couple of points profit yesterday regardless and this is about the long term. Improving and solidifying things moving forward to make the best possible strategy I can.

[Richard Latimer]

I'll update properly tomorrow as need to get to bed but decent enough day:

Guabira in Bolivia is not a qualifier for anything and Nicaragua isn't worth staying up for haha! First game Sunday is Aus. First POTENTIAL that is:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer dont need to explain it mate, just see how the next few months go

[Richard Latimer]

@Darri one thing to note, is this is actually way less time consuming than the dog lay thing I did for a year. Only need to be checking the phone at very specific intervals. Most of the day I can leave it well alone.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!

I get what you mean on the notifications. I've definitely been a slave to them in the past. I'll have a look at the message.

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

Thanks mate. Trust me, I'm busy sorting out my son's room. This will be in the background haha!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Good luck today mate, that is a rather large list of games and all throughout the day. Look after yourself lad with this. I know you want this so badly but please be careful. This is what id describe as a slave to trading, i was like that and it messed me up mental health wise. I ended up taking a break from i all. Every notification that popped on the phone id stop doing whatever i was doing and double checked it qualified. Iv sometimes avoided doing something social/work related because i knew i had 5-6 games in that time period so said no to them. It annoyed the people i was around. Please just look after yourself lad. Iv sent you a message privately about something outside of trading just so i can understand a bit more without asking publicly.

[Richard Latimer]

Was up too late for Tokyo but it lost. Just a quick tweak on the goal 46-55 & 60-69. I now want home odds between 1.35 - 3.25 ave book price as per oddsportal.com

[Richard Latimer]

Many many potentials for tomorrow, not many will qualify and I hopefully won't spend too long worrying about it. Phone on, keep one eye on the score, check for potential FHG's pre-match, check for more potential goals FH depending on goal times and other parameters.

Once in the 2nd half, check each fixture briefly around 60mins to see if there's an upcoming trade or not. If a goal goes in at that point re-check it doesn't fit another angle for further goals.

That's it.

Hoping to hit the ground running in May and make some real inroads. The more data I collect the more solid that data should be in theory. Let's see if it plays out in real life.

[Richard Latimer]

Decent enough day today although annoyed I missed Rukh Brest in Belarus. Only excuse is lazyness at not checking the home match odds were within my parameter for a lay of the 1-0. Anyway, from the top:

Adelaide home odds way out of line with a lay of the 0-0 and as that where it stayed it was a no trade.

Rukh Brest. 1-0 @ HT, home odds under 1.69 max for this score (but still not low enough for FHG), ave over 0.5 for SH high enough and home scoring averages for whole game and SH within parameters. Literally realised this just before the goal. It's great for the strategy, annoying for me.

Steinbach, home odds of 1.87 way above that to be considered for FH goal and also for lay of 0-0. 1-0 came too late for me to consider another tradeas per written parameters on sheet. 1-0 it stayed.

BW Linz, home odds good enough but home FH scoring ave above 2.3 (it was 2.5) so despite the goal it didn't qualify. When another goal came in the 2nd half it was too late to consider another trade. 2-0 it stayed.

Aarau. Home odds too high for FHG or 2nd half lay of 0-0. By the time goal came it was too late to consider another trade. Ended 2-1.

Oss. Home odds not conducive for FHG trade but a quick goal making it 0-3 before 50 mins did allow a lay of the 0-3 on 70. Odds 2.82. Finished 0-4.

Roda, Home odds good enough for FHG but home FH scoring average under the 0.9+ needed. 0-0@ the half. Still 0-0 late on and the match did qualify for a lay of the 0-0 SH. Ended 0-1. Odds 2.62.

Lastly, a loser in Argentina. Not a FHG but home scored quickly 2nd half and it qualified for a lay of the 1-0. Didn't realise at the time but both teams had had a man sent off for the same incident just before I got in. Would not do again. Ended 1-0. Odds 2.34 on the lay.

2 winning trades and 1 loser there for small profit.

Bank stands @ 57.59, same stake tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!

However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.

Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.

First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.

Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.

Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.

Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.

Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.

Now.....to Hamburg.

At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.

Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.

Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.

FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.

Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.

Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.

I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.

In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!

Small update. Whenever I exclude something I go back and mess with the parameters to see if this means something should be relaxed elsewhere. With the exclusion of a 1-1 scoreline I've checked the home scoring averages for 2nd half again and seems I can take it from 1.1+ to 1+ on the 2 quick second half goals angle.

Obviously it would be great if I could find all this out before placing the trades but that's obv not possible. In any case, despite needing to push on, I class this as the earn while you learn phase and as long as I'm constantly moving in the right direction I will be happy.

Here's to a good Friday.

[Richard Latimer]

Here they are, along with all rules I'm following for various score lines and match scenarios:

I never enter at any different point to the given entry point on the right of each. Bear in mind that 70th minute means in by 69mins so for that I'm always placing my trade @ 68.45mins.

[Richard Latimer]

Damp squib of a day with only Hamburg qualifying for what was in the end, 2 losing trades. Always happens on the first day of a challenge where you make something public ffs haha!!

However... 2 things. I've not hidden that from day 1 I've been tweaking this with the idea that some losses are kept because I see no reason to remove and some I remove until the data tells me to put them back in. More on that later.

Quite a few on the filter would have lost not for my strict criteria and some of the very same snap decisions I made in the past simiilar to those I have made on the above.

First off, I reference earlier that the Kazaks goal times and odds were all wrong for a trade (see home copy sheet where all my criteria are listed) so the goalless 2nd half in Karagandy made no odds to me the same as the late goals in the K. Almaty game.

Barcelona would have looked for all the world to be a prime candidate for a late goal going down 1-2 to Granada ( a goal in the 60's and a goal in the 70's for a 1-2 score line ALMOST hit every rule) but my odds stipulations for this trade according to the rules I've been creating were a minimum of 1.11 over 0.5 SH ave book price (see oddsportal.com) and this was 1.09.

Ends 1-2, no skin off my nose as I didn't touch it.

Alanyaspor, home odds of 3.17 ave book price says no LCS for 0-0. Didn't need to check on anything else, that was an easy one. Ends 0-0 and I could care less.

Plenty of losing trades avoided down to a few simple rules.

Now.....to Hamburg.

At the time of placing both a FHG trade on 19mins and a LCS trade on 69mins these both qualified. Home odds were 1.49 and other rules fit the FHG so I had no problem with it. Hamburg didn't have their shooting boots on and it ended 0-0 @ the break.

Typically enough they scored on 56, while having a look to see what this meant they conceded immediately. This then goes to my 74min entry on 2 goals scored up to the 59th. The over odds fit as did the scoring averages for the home team. Up until today the only scoreline I was excluding was a 2-1 in this scenario. 2-1 often seems to be a bad one.

Once again Hamburg couldn't find their shooting boots and neither could Karlsruhe and the match ended 1-1.

FHG odds 2.52 to lay and late goal was 2.12 to lay so hardly drastic.

Here's where it gets interesting. My data so far was home team less than 1.49 good for a FHG but I only had one match that high. 1.5 and over has been poor so that's been on the red list for a while. Todays result means my data is only 50% for odds that high and 1/1 split. Until more matches occur with those odds and crucially have FHG's 20th minute onwards I have removed from the FHG angle and it now wouldn't qualify.

Next up. The 1-1 scoreline after 2 quick goals. Again it's the same. Only 2 matches where it was 1-1 after 2 quick second half goals and no further goal scored until 75th minute. I'm not saying I won't ever add it back but for now it's not a winning prospect and it goes to the watch list only until I am shown otherwise.

I follow the data wherever it leads me. The idea is that a good strat will get more and more solid over time.

In real terms the bank is now £56.87 and we go again in a bit. Will post up Fridays POTENTIALS shortly. Apologies for the typo's, I'm sure there are many haha!

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer well lets hope your now looking at the correct things. Iv been on this site since jan 2019 and iv seen you have strategies before and always thought you were doing ok, didnt realise you were still on min stakes. I think you have always done too much or looked at obscure things. When we hit rock bottom however we learn a lot about ourselves. Its in that moment you see things clearer. I hope that happens for you in your situation. Anyway im off of now, ill pop in end of next month see how this goes, dont like to have too many notifications. Good luck mate and this new found focus im sure will help. Always a quick message away if needed

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?

Since I started looking on forums yeah

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer 15-16 yrs of betting and trading?

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck

It's more along the lines of this is the time to make all the hard learning of 15-16 yrs pay off. Now or never in that sense.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer My mind is at ease, if you read your first post it sounded like this needed to happen right now. Well youll manage this no problem. There is enough on this forum to make 30% every month which will means this should make £1,300 after 12 months if compounded each month. If your strategies beat that then your laughing mate. Im glad i asked these questions cause your first post sounded like a hail mary, but really its not and you can still play the long game even from the start. Ill keep watch of how this goes mate, good luck

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?

Exactly

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer so realistically there is nothing saying this cant be a 8-12 month bank building before we need that money? You have other incomes coming in right to support your needs at home?