Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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In a break from what I have been doing I'm forcing myself to record every single real (bad) trade/bet I make.
The further I go into the red the more I'll realise things aren't working and unlike usual I will have some concrete figures on what I've been losing. As I hopefully start to turn things around and the box goes from red to green then I'll be able to see this nice and clear rather than making guesses and assumptions on what the current state of play is.
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Aint that typical. Not a duff game among them today!
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When the fun stops stop they say.....
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The god of statistics is having his fun today. Sick and twisted sense of humour that's for sure.
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I've tried to find the consistency at higher odds of backing and over 2.5 but the more results I collect the more I am lead to laying the away and looking at over 1.5 using this very same data.
I believe from today I will start collecting over 1.5 prices as well but only for a combined score of 300+ from tallied criterias. 280 has performed far more poorly on the over 1.5 than the over 2.5.
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Sheet updated for today.
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Good day today on everything but the backs.
Overs finally hit back and things look a little more healthy now.
Lays suffered only one highly unexpected loss.
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Losing day today and certainly for me I got stung on Paderborn but other than being typical that was the first loss in 25 at such high (or what I would imagine to be high) odds.
Sheet updated for tomorrow.
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Quite a bit lined up for today. All on the sheet. Starts at 13:00.
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As for today, nothing for the remainder as all qualifiers were overnight games in South America.
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I started on worksheet the other night to show sequences of wins in a row and and how many matches were winning/drawing.losing at HT. I've now developed that sheet with dates for when winning runs began/ended.
Shows that throughout December (beginning on the 8th) there would have been only 1 losing lay and this was on the 30th. A sequence of 34 winning lays.
Since then it has been good if not quite at those unattainable highs:
The next sequence of wins began on the same day the last ended and went on right up to the 6th Jan so even then just over a week without loss. 15 wins.
Next was 13 wins beginning on the 7th Jan and ending 14 Jan 1 week later.
Then 9 wins beginning 14 Jan and ending on the 20th Jan almost another week later.
from the 20th Jan to the 26th Jan there was another sequence of 15 wins before loss. And from the 26th Jan to the 31st came a sequence of 18 wins before another loss.
Beginning 1st Feb there was a minor blip where only 3 wins later came the next loss only to be followed 4 wins later on the same day (3rd Feb) with a second consecutive loss on the same day.
Since then the sequence is currently 12 strong without loss beginning on the 4th Feb.
These figures are subject to change a little if I decide to rule out leagues on the basis of liquidity but thus far it appears quite consistent. The results are from my original backs so I do not have lay odds for most.
However, in addition I have also created a separate laying sheet and in time will track sequences in the same way.
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All Boys came back from 0-2 down to go in at the half drawing. Game ended 3-3 so a win on the lays. I myself layed Ferro and was just about to take my 25% when All Boys scored a 3rd allowing for a much greater cashout.
Thursday games already in the bag as Godoy Cruz now 3-0 up and Honduras cashed out at HT (paper traded). In reality I layed Lanus and that game was 0-0 at the half. Took a little while in the 2nd half to earn my 25% but as soon as I took it Godoy scored. Nevermind, a win is a win.
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Tomorrow's updated.
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Got my figures a little wrong the other day. Been way more qualifiers than 107:
63 matches where the home team was winning at HT. 23 of those by 2 or more goals. Only one of those turned a winning position into a losing one. 98.41%.
52 matches have gone into the half drawing. From those only 5 have lost. 90.38%.
12 matches have gone in losing. So far 3 of those have gone on to lose the match. Amount already lost would so far make it prohibitive to red out at this point as you would only lose more in the long run from a guaranteed red as opposed to a good chance of turning things round. A losing position at ht would ultimately suggest some sort of long term loss but that loss is probably less from just letting it run.
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Both overs won for a change as well.
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2nd day of laying resulted in another win. Was still 0-0 after 65 minutes so cashed out for just over 25% of full stake. Baby steps.
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Laying worked well today although the idea of taking a profit at half time proved fanciful as after kickoff price on the away team fell for ages. Cashed out a goal up though.
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No good again on the backs and as for the overs.....
I've studied the backing selections alot and from tomorrow I'll be looking at these as lays as well. Homes only as aways have been tending to lose when they don't win rather than just draw.
Selections thus far indicate the following:
45 matches in various states of winning at HT leading to either big green or practically a full win.
50 matches drawing at HT which should result in at least a small green on most occasions.
12 matches losing at HT where 9 came back to grab at least a draw so a bit of a loss there but not as much as if redding out on all 12. -
Overs at an all time low but just poking over the top of the parapet.
Backs still sitting just above 10% yield despite a very poor last few daysAnd......real time......well poor.
Missed Arsenal (remembered seconds before we scored) but saw inplay stats hugely in favour of LASK at HT so topped up there for higher odds. Cashed out the second bet after a goal so that one went well.
Forgot to cashout Inter at HT and then when I remembered the price had drifted so stupidly I left it unmatched at the lower thinking it was only a matter of time. What was only a matter of time was a goal for Crotone.
I need to record these mistakes though as hopefully it will concentrate my mind going forward.
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Fairy heinous day, just trying to update things at the moment.
