Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.

It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.

You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.

It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!

No question but there is the unexplanable and I think the point was, if it works do you really need it explained? I would have been on Valerenga tonight other than my criteria for a 1-1 HT LCS (where home took the lead) is only 1.6-1.8 home scored ave and this was 2.0.

All I know is it saved me a small amount of cash and the criteria holds firm for now.

[Dan MacKinnon]

@richard-latimer I was reading a book earlier and they talked about the butterfly flapping it’s wings can cause a tornado in Texas.

It’s all to do with probability. The butterfly itself isn’t the sole reason but if one change creates 2 outcomes, that might create 2 more each, then those create more, etc. So there is an almost infinite number of possibilities until something happens to omit those opportunities.

You could say a defender has an option to pass back to his keeper or to his wing back. They pass it and so on until there’s a goal. But you wouldn’t say the defender created the goal.

It’s one of those things that sounds more interesting that it is when you actually go into more detail. The same as how Danny Dyer is related to Edward II or whatever - yes about 80% of the country is!

[Richard Latimer]

Ended 4-1 but no researched trading opportunity in sight.

Nothing but crumbs here. 2 games inplay at the moment no good as things stand. That said, I don't regret staying away from the Euro's with the stress that is causing of recent.

Good to just watch the tournament with no skin in the game.

[Richard Latimer]

2 more goals though. It just shows that goals do breed goals and the standard average can't be relied on when teams get into the groove like this.

[Richard Latimer]

That game is dead to me now.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Will lay under 0.5 Molde 70th minute

Too early with the 1st and a 2nd now. No trade planned at this stage but rest assured if I do post it will be a planned trade straight from the trading plan.

[Richard Latimer]

Will lay under 0.5 Molde 70th minute

[Richard Latimer]

4 potentials for tomorrow although given that my last list of around 10 potentials has ended up with one trade and I only have 1 trade I would repeat so far in June, I don't hold out much hope. We shall see:

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

Good to know. Where do you find history of their surgeries haha??

It was on proform or you can go through Timeform. I’ll add it to my list of things to add when Adam puts the horse software in beta shortly.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

Good to know. Where do you find history of their surgeries haha??

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

Exactly. There’s a horse racing strategy where people back a horse to win its first race after win pipe surgery as the win rate is pretty impressive. Does it work? Yes. Do I know why? Nope. Do I care as long as it works? Nope

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan exactly. Like I said, I've always been so preoccupied on hypothesising about everything but it's really pretty irrelevant.

If it works, it works.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Had a bit of time this morning so decided to re-visit a video which I believe @john folan had posted at some point in the past.

Very interesting all the way through but one thing I took from it and it kind of contradicts many of the things I have thought in the past is that correaltion and not ncessarily causation is what is important.

Some guys tracked millions and millions of lines of data in horse racing to see what impacted what but they weren't in the slightest bit interested in untangling it to find out why.

It mattered little to them that x happened when y was apparent or vice versa. Only that it did happen. I've always sought to hypothesise a reason for why something is happening but this has just shown me that's not the important part to concentrate on.

It suports more what I'm doing now in terms of following the data. Of course I don't have a million results to analyse haha!

But one example he brought up was soemthing like the largest chocolate making countries on the planet apparently have the most nobel prize winners. Clearly no causation then and something else going on but.....

a) Does it matter (I suppose yes if it isn't going to continue and no if it will)
b) Chaos theory....a butterfly flapping it's wings halfway across the world causes a tornado. Who knows why but maybe there is a reason.

All the same, a very interesting watch.

A good video this. Taught me to focus on what was happening not why.

[Richard Latimer]

Had a bit of time this morning so decided to re-visit a video which I believe @john folan had posted at some point in the past.

Very interesting all the way through but one thing I took from it and it kind of contradicts many of the things I have thought in the past is that correaltion and not ncessarily causation is what is important.

Some guys tracked millions and millions of lines of data in horse racing to see what impacted what but they weren't in the slightest bit interested in untangling it to find out why.

It mattered little to them that x happened when y was apparent or vice versa. Only that it did happen. I've always sought to hypothesise a reason for why something is happening but this has just shown me that's not the important part to concentrate on.

It suports more what I'm doing now in terms of following the data. Of course I don't have a million results to analyse haha!

But one example he brought up was soemthing like the largest chocolate making countries on the planet apparently have the most nobel prize winners. Clearly no causation then and something else going on but.....

a) Does it matter (I suppose yes if it isn't going to continue and no if it will)
b) Chaos theory....a butterfly flapping it's wings halfway across the world causes a tornado. Who knows why but maybe there is a reason.

All the same, a very interesting watch.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays didn't qualify and absolutrely nothing again for tomorrow. It's going to be pretty difficult judging how I'm doing by the end of this month at this rate.

[Richard Latimer]

And so begins another day of almost nothing.....

[Steve Sandell]

This post is deleted!

[Martin]

@richard-latimer great news that

[Richard Latimer]

@martin said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer every cloud!

Indeed. Plus my son is home now.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer every cloud!