Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Nothing until this now - Home lay:
All the other things I continue to work on are still going great guns but less ready than this one.
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Disappointing month so far but still waiting on Winter leagues which are mostly about to start kicking in.
Still not really changed anything in overall criteria for a while. Been debating a couple of things internally but nothing more at present.
There really aren't many leagues I've found issue with. Some are Central/South American and it's long been discussed how this can be a bit like headless chickens running around after the ball with no particular plan. I first looked at these when the overall p/l for Central/South America along with s/r was a losing proposition.
Rather than remove all leagues, when many were doing very well, it seemed a beter idea to simply exclude the problem leagues initially. This decision has so far proved to be the right one.
Summer leagues have been a problem with the much lower odds also leading to a large decrease in strike rate/p/l ratio.
Scandinavian leagues with much lower odds have been a concern and so have been put to track only.
Up until recently Korea hadn't been something that was jumping out. K League 2 started with 4 straight wins. Clearly this didn't make it the best league out there. The last 3 results in that league have now been negative. 7 fixtures, 4 wins and a large enough deficit that even 4 straight wins still doesn't take it into the green.
K League 1 had until yesterday 2 results, 1 loss. Big deal. Now 3 results 2 losses and a reminder of how batshit crazy the win was.
So now 10 fixtures across South Korea and no more than a 50/50 proposition. I would say that is something to be wary of.
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@Alex-Rendell They absolutely don't but I just saved myself a chunk of money today and being over cautious is better than the other way. Done that plenty in the past.
What 4 results with odds of around 2/1 does do is make it almost impossible a league can finish in the green for the entire season. A losing season to me is certainly worthy of checking to see whether it's an anomaly or a symptom something bigger.
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@Richard-Latimer it's your system and I'm not personally following it but 4 results don't indicate anything. If they'd all won, it doesn't make it the best league in the world for trading either? Just trying to give an objective viewpoint - like I said, I think you should have a minimum amount of games traded in each league before you start using real money on those leagues, but that's just my humble opinion. Cheers
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@Alex-Rendell tell me I wasn't right to be cautious with the South Korean fixtures. That's now 4 losses on the bounce unless there's a comeback here.
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@Alex-Rendell of course I'm not chucking it in the bin. I'm still collecting data and things may well even out. It's easy enough to start trading the fixtures again.
I'm just being cautious.
There definitely are some leagues where caution is necessary. If I witness a dramatic shift in the data I won't hesitate to correct course.
As it is yesterday was another loss but still very slightly in profit from begin August.
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
"I'm through with South Korea until at least next season. Need to see how the remaining fixtures pan out but so far from 3 fixtures they have all been lowish odds and 2 of them have s**t the bed"3 fixtures and you're chucking it in the bin? If you want to be serious about this then you need a bit of perspective; we've got to be working with representative sample sizes here, no? Or do you have more data in the background that backs up your thinking? As a suggestion, maybe you shouldn't trade any league that hasn't had a minimum amount of selections, then you'll have a far better idea of whether or not that league works. Not being critical but it seems that these Korean teams aren't the only ones "sh*tting the bed"...!
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I'm through with South Korea until at least next season. Need to see how the remaining fixtures pan out but so far from 3 fixtures they have all been lowish odds and 2 of them have s**t the bed.
Memory also serves me that even the winner was a clusterfuck of what could have beens. 1-0 down and down to 10 men, somehow the match was evened up to 10 a piece and shortly after an equaliser went in.
The 2nd half saw another 4 goals in a match that could have gone either way. Not prepared to risk on K League 2 either at present as last couple of weeks have been awful in these 2 leagues.
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Lowest odds lays are 1.9. All home teams to be opposed:
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@Akiva-Anderson My 8 and 5 year old already want lifts and money off me. What am I doing wrong?
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@Akiva-Anderson I've not really reached the lift stage yet as he's not massively social. Here and there perhaps.
Most of the time he's either taking up my sofa playing Xbox in the lounge or he's up in his room on some other electronic device.
My 12 year old is usually in her room too although I imagine dad's taxi's will come into play at some point!
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@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
@Tony-Hastie I've got them. They just don't really want to spend a massive amount of time with me anymore.
I’ve a 14 year old, who just wants lifts and money from me.
le jeu avant tout
Am Yisrael Chai
When you got skin in the game, you stay in the game
But you don’t get a win unless you play in the game... -
@Tony-Hastie I've got them. They just don't really want to spend a massive amount of time with me anymore.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@Richard-Latimer took me years to change that, not easy! Best advice is to do something else, get away from PC and phone while the game is on.
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Libertad put paid to making this a profitable weekend but I did manage to claw another £100 back. Almost £150 to the good in Aug although s/r has been pretty crap all things considered:
Nothing until 14th earliest now.
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How do people do this?
I don't look and I'm still consumed over what's happening
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
As much as the summer leagues have been profitable and given at least something to trade since May I can't wait for their effect to minimise once more.
Up until the end of May s/r is 89% coupled with ave lay odds of 4.7.
Since the beginning of June those average odds have come down to 4.1 while the s/r has fallen to 82%.
I prefer the greater consistency and occassional larger loss than the stop/start of summer leagues where it looks like teams are much more evenly matched.
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Estonia odds too high but last one came through to get a bit back and mean that small or not this month is still ever so slightly in profit:
Seems like quite a bit to look at tomorrow:
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Not a good start to the weekend. Beyond looking at South Korea and seeing both leagues are now in the negative there's not a lot to do. Bad results are always going to happen.
Will look at the South Korean leagues again when the season has finished. All other leagues in that region show profit.
