Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

1st trade in the new day as it were.

LCS IBV

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer People cant see the strides you have taken? What do you mean? We have at every single stage only ever offered our opinions based on experience of doing exactly what you are doing mistakes wise. These changes you keep making over long period of time, had you just tried and listened from months ago youd have already have done them. Its not a you vs us thing. This is a communtiy of lads all trying to do well in an industry that no one believes you can make money in.

This strike rate does sound great and i seriously hope the odds are also in your favour as this would be a lovely bank builder. Dont get over confident. Keep a calm head. We got seriously hyped with the lay the dog strat didnt turn out well long term. Im liking these changes tho and great steps being made. Finally could start to see a trader come through here.

Thanks @Darri , I only mean in as much as that I was being surpassed by others new to the site. It's an understable assumption to make but my data quietly amassing in the background always had me feeling confident. We shall see but like @Keith-Anderson said, it's now or never.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer People cant see the strides you have taken? What do you mean? We have at every single stage only ever offered our opinions based on experience of doing exactly what you are doing mistakes wise. These changes you keep making over long period of time, had you just tried and listened from months ago youd have already have done them. Its not a you vs us thing. This is a communtiy of lads all trying to do well in an industry that no one believes you can make money in. The advice is never to be critical but helpful. The more good traders we have on here the better info everyone ends up getting.

This strike rate does sound great and i seriously hope the odds are also in your favour as this would be a lovely bank builder. Dont get over confident. Keep a calm head. We got seriously hyped with the lay the dog strat didnt turn out well long term. Im liking these changes tho and great steps being made. Finally could start to see a trader come through here. Remember tho dont go all this is a Gold Mine yet, you havent even traded it or managed it mentally yet. Stay calm. Almost every strategy tested looks great on paper, its why creating a strategy is super simple its managing it thats hard and why for example you have struggled for years and others have come into this and overlapped you in short time (including me for example)

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?

For now yes. Like I said, I'm still tracking my other idea as there's no way I'm throwing out 8 months of data and hard work when it's still in a very promising development phase. If I ever find a way to automate it and nothing goes in or out in terms of what was and wasn't a trade, it could become a goldmine.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?

[Richard Latimer]

Right, I have simplified massively for this LCS @ HT venture. But I have still optimised where I can see there are initial misgivings at either end of the scale which affect the way things have gone so far in a big way. This is my current table for working out if a trade is permissable at HT and it's so easy a trained chimp could do it.

I still intend to look at oddsportal as the odds of things at some scorelines effect the outcome alot in my experience. There's a bit of chopping off at the top and bottom of some stats as is appropriate right now. But if things correct themselves over time I can simply add them back in.

NOTHING is lost as has been the case since last December now and while people can't see the strides I have taken I maintain this is the main one. At no point in the past would I have been able to hop so seamlessly from one thing to another with such complete confidence:

So 787 potential trades and nothing under 90% s/r if taking @ HT (kick-of for FHG).

This should in theory give way over 1,500 trades a year.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm back home and totally worn out a 5hr drive home 150 miles in stop start traffic on the M5. Nonetheless I'm updating now as want to be fully prepared for tomorrow.

Not changed my mind. For now I need to bank build with something simple as has been said many times BUT.....to chuck all my hard work away in terms of the other stuff I've been looking at would be criminal. It needs developing and it needs the time/space to show it's not a fluke, not a coincidence and that most importantly.....it will rinse/repeat. 28th saw 4 green trades on the method I have paused for now:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer fairly new to trading so take what I say with a pinch of salt but I do LCS at HT I normally look to get in at 5 sometimes at HT if odds are 7 normally get in at about 50 to 55 min

[Richard Latimer]

Been very slack at updating last few days but doesn't really matter. I'm home tomorrow and I'm going to work it all out to start the standard LCS from Saturday.

Only thing I'm undecided on is what to make my maximum lay price to include as many of the trades as possible and give the maximum s/r I can while also ensuring I always have value.

I'm a bit tired now though so that will do for today.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm not posting the list of criteria at present. Everyone has seen it and while I've not lost long term confidence in the different angles I am starting to see that it's going to take years to fully develop.

Until then I have an excellent bank builder in the LCS which I'm going to optimise when I get home. I'm also working on an over 1.5 set and forget but need loads more data.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

On the list for today:

.

I may or may not just go for the LCS @ HT depending on what's happening.

Akatemia wasn't on betfair and the others didn't qualify.

[Richard Latimer]

On the list for today:

.

I may or may not just go for the LCS @ HT depending on what's happening.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer nice work on the discipline there, sounds like things are on the up!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

I haven't fully updated because I've been busy but definitely leaning more and more towards the LCS right now. In fact I laid under 1.5 in New York @ HT.

DC could be a good one but I'm off to bed soon. Will update fully tomorrow.

I didn't get chance to update today but only Ostersunds was on my list and the odds didn't fit with the scoreline so I left well alone.

[Richard Latimer]

I haven't fully updated because I've been busy but definitely leaning more and more towards the LCS right now. In fact I laid under 1.5 in New York @ HT.

DC could be a good one but I'm off to bed soon. Will update fully tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing again.

I need to crunch the data properly before I do anything to ensure it's all 100% but as things are, when I get home I may be switching things around. By that I mean, I continue tracking and developing this very specific set of rules but build a bank initially around my standard LCS data. It does implement different 1x2 odds as from all the data I have various scorelines are more likely too see more goals depending on the odds of the teams involved. That said, it is a lot more across the board as it were.

For now....I'm away and it's not the priority:

[Richard Latimer]

So for today:

None of the overnighters hit required criteria.

[Richard Latimer]

Thanks everybody for your positive comments today. I do definitely have a decision to make imminently but even if I take the simplest route I won't get rid of the angles I've been looking at. It's taken me too damn long to collate them and I belive strongly it's worth continuing to collect the data for each. Hell, if I'm ever able to get it so that nothing comes in or out and then find a way of automation it could be a goldmine.

I'm on holiday at the moment so no decisions to be made until I get back.

The one thing about taking higher odds at present is it puts my stake under the minimum and hence makes it difficult at some amounts. I could of course back the overs but I much prefer laying to win a set amount.

[Akiva Anderson]

Of course he has something. He’s that much information he’s bound to have something! The trick is to simplify it and execute it. He knows this already

[Martin Walker]

My LCS has a similar strike rate with half the results of yours and has given me 40 points from march. Plus its so easy, takes literally a few minutes a day.
Sounds like you have something there