Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Still doing my updating from yesterday but keeping an eye on True Bangkok, when it starts, for a 20th min FHG.

Scratch that. Noticed it doesn't quite fit right now.

[Richard Latimer]

Still doing my updating from yesterday but keeping an eye on True Bangkok, when it starts, for a 20th min FHG.

[Richard Latimer]

Decent day today although as I started my updates I realised I somehow missed the Aue in Ger which should have been a 75th minute entry at 2-0 and would have lost.

Aside from that though a decent result in Slovan Bratislava for FHG which I wasn't on made me realise I can potentially go a little lower on price there.

For the trades I did post it 2/2 with late late goals in Desna and River Plate Uruguay.

Going to have to wait until morning to update all the results as I'm just crap at this time of night. Spend most of my time rubbing my eyes, stretching and trying to keep moving so as not to nod off haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

Loads to look at today. One wonders whether I'll get more qualifiers than most Saturdays where almost every single match scenario and scoreline tends to head in a different direction from what I'm looking for.

Left in pretty much every league today which isn't something I have been doing but I want to see if the a) the match goes inplay and b) do these patterns replicate across ALL leagues. It may be that liquidity is too poor anyway but I lose nothing from looking.

Also Selangor, Lodz, Bayern & Crvena I'll just be tracking on account of FH averages breaching 2.4.

Should have said home averages breaching 2.4

[Richard Latimer]

Half an hour until the fun begins again.

Yesterday made small green and crucially extended another pattern I've been noticing for the future.

Kuwait (love those Kuwaities) had a late goal in Al Arabi (there was another after too). Finished 3-0 from 1-0 @ HT
Altay was 2-0 @ HT and had a goal a minute after I got in. 3-0 it finished.
Helmond by the amount of big chances missed and woodwork hit should have seen more than 1FHG. It didn't.

The pattern I mention above is a 1st 2nd half goal in the 60''s followed by another in the 70's. Scores of 1-1,1-2,2-0,3-0 & 5-0 so far have seen a VERY impressive 12/13 goals after 80mins.

I'm aware a few of these may turn out to be no more than coincidence but to think all 15 different angles, where I've noticed such strong patterns, are coincidence......seems well, a bit toooo much of a coincidence to me haha!

Yesterday saw this happen in both Saarbruken and Westerlo.

[Richard Latimer]

Friday:

[Richard Latimer]

I did update sheet but hadn't posted yet. Irritatingly enough the one potential today was listed at wrong time. Would have been a winner laying 0-0 in Kuwait.

[Richard Latimer]

Wednesday:

[Richard Latimer]

Didn't post today but the small number of selections were up on my sheet. As it happens none qualified. Chaingrai in Thai this morning was a potential but goals at all the wrong times.

Glenavon was a potential but it's 0-1 right now and the home team is a dog. Not one I'm getting involved in.

[Richard Latimer]

Monday fixtures of interest:

[Richard Latimer]

Another weekend comes to a close. Small green overall even if 2pts red today. More patterns emerge and more potential trades moving forward.

Only trade I wouldn't take again based on data so far is Liverpool M in Uruguay.

FHG's and 2nd FHG's. Seems that it's the middle ground where the odds are concerned that sees a game with fewer goals. There aren't a massive amount but adding high home odds to the low ones when it's 0-1 or 0-0 FH adds around 10 more trades and most of them winners.

Today would have seen Trencin in a 2nd FHG winner and Boleslav in a FHG winner based on this.

0-2 as an entry point following a quick 2nd half goal is now gaining enough traction to make it its own category ratrther than lumping with the other BOR (best of the rest) as I have done prev. This has enabled me to look at it and so far it looks like another goal should be forthcoming with the first arriving as late as the 57th. This added Leverkusen today (although I wasn't in it for anything than a 2nd FHG personally) and a Paraguayan game that saw a late goal.

I've updated all results on the sheet and the seperate tab labeled as copy sheet where all guidelines are detailed.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest. Aus already done but not a qualifier anyway:

[Richard Latimer]

One more thing, I continue to collect data for the teams averaging higher than 2.4 home goals a game and will look at these after 1 full month. Initial thoughts are they COULD be useful at times but this is where the odds often get crazy both in terms of home superiority and goal expectation.

Take Salzburg yesterday for example. I didn't look inplay but the goal odds pre-game across the books were crazy low and so I imagine they stayed that way inplay.

[Richard Latimer]

A quick update before I crack on with the day. I really feel this is going places now as I started with just a couple of angles but the more data I'm able to mine the more patterns I'm able to see. One negative is the sheet is getting pretty big now and the bigger it gets the more confusing it gets contantly chopping and changing criteria in the filters to check on individual angles.

Last night all I could see were random numbers jumping out at me and I couldn't think straight so saved and went to bed. It's always easier with a coffee the next morning provided there's time to do it.

I find the odd mistake here and there as I'm entering everything manually and I guess that will always happen. Easily enough corrected when I see it.

Anyway, yesterday led me to another conclusion. I've recently found a decent angle for laying the 0-0 when certain things are just so......maybe the same could be done FH. Turns out this may be possible. Even a small window for double bubble of getting FHG come in between 20-22 mins and then having a 2nd appear incredibly probable at that stage too.

I've added the guidelines but essentially it boils down to a strong home fave (1.49 or below) with higher than normal FH ave 0.9+ and a 1.24 min price for over 0.5 FH (all ave book prices).

So far getting in on 19mins (20th min) provides 18 selections since Dec with 14 of them being winners. I would imagine the price at that point would be similar to a 70th minute LCS so 75-80% would work very well.

On their own these all appear small numbers but together I have over 250 potential trades now of which 210 would have been winners. All since 15 Dec. And I know s/r without odds consideration is worthless but there is not a single entry before the 70th minute (20th FH) and plenty that are way way later.

Yesterday was 2/3 (although Wolfsburg FHG angle is one I only started looking at after the fact so I actually got 1/2 for a very small red.

Wolfsburg FHG - Green 1-0@HT - Goal on 31
Vorskla LCS 70th @ 0-1 - Red - Stayed that way.
Aarau LCS 70th @ 1-0 - Green - Ended 3-0.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest along with guidelines I'll be following:

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrow looks busy but nothing until midday so I'll sort that when I wake.

Loads of new leagues starting but they'll be on the backburner until 4 matches played by each team just to get a bit of match fitness.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

CORRECTION:

Only one goal scored after HT in Roda before I entered. Shouldn't actually have been a selection. Just glad it came through.

[Richard Latimer]

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest looking for the right fitting match scenarios:

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing tomorrow but I will be tracking a game in Qatar and one in Serbia: