Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?

For now yes. Like I said, I'm still tracking my other idea as there's no way I'm throwing out 8 months of data and hard work when it's still in a very promising development phase. If I ever find a way to automate it and nothing goes in or out in terms of what was and wasn't a trade, it could become a goldmine.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?

[Richard Latimer]

Right, I have simplified massively for this LCS @ HT venture. But I have still optimised where I can see there are initial misgivings at either end of the scale which affect the way things have gone so far in a big way. This is my current table for working out if a trade is permissable at HT and it's so easy a trained chimp could do it.

I still intend to look at oddsportal as the odds of things at some scorelines effect the outcome alot in my experience. There's a bit of chopping off at the top and bottom of some stats as is appropriate right now. But if things correct themselves over time I can simply add them back in.

NOTHING is lost as has been the case since last December now and while people can't see the strides I have taken I maintain this is the main one. At no point in the past would I have been able to hop so seamlessly from one thing to another with such complete confidence:

So 787 potential trades and nothing under 90% s/r if taking @ HT (kick-of for FHG).

This should in theory give way over 1,500 trades a year.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm back home and totally worn out a 5hr drive home 150 miles in stop start traffic on the M5. Nonetheless I'm updating now as want to be fully prepared for tomorrow.

Not changed my mind. For now I need to bank build with something simple as has been said many times BUT.....to chuck all my hard work away in terms of the other stuff I've been looking at would be criminal. It needs developing and it needs the time/space to show it's not a fluke, not a coincidence and that most importantly.....it will rinse/repeat. 28th saw 4 green trades on the method I have paused for now:

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer fairly new to trading so take what I say with a pinch of salt but I do LCS at HT I normally look to get in at 5 sometimes at HT if odds are 7 normally get in at about 50 to 55 min

[Richard Latimer]

Been very slack at updating last few days but doesn't really matter. I'm home tomorrow and I'm going to work it all out to start the standard LCS from Saturday.

Only thing I'm undecided on is what to make my maximum lay price to include as many of the trades as possible and give the maximum s/r I can while also ensuring I always have value.

I'm a bit tired now though so that will do for today.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm not posting the list of criteria at present. Everyone has seen it and while I've not lost long term confidence in the different angles I am starting to see that it's going to take years to fully develop.

Until then I have an excellent bank builder in the LCS which I'm going to optimise when I get home. I'm also working on an over 1.5 set and forget but need loads more data.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

On the list for today:

.

I may or may not just go for the LCS @ HT depending on what's happening.

Akatemia wasn't on betfair and the others didn't qualify.

[Richard Latimer]

On the list for today:

.

I may or may not just go for the LCS @ HT depending on what's happening.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer nice work on the discipline there, sounds like things are on the up!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

I haven't fully updated because I've been busy but definitely leaning more and more towards the LCS right now. In fact I laid under 1.5 in New York @ HT.

DC could be a good one but I'm off to bed soon. Will update fully tomorrow.

I didn't get chance to update today but only Ostersunds was on my list and the odds didn't fit with the scoreline so I left well alone.

[Richard Latimer]

I haven't fully updated because I've been busy but definitely leaning more and more towards the LCS right now. In fact I laid under 1.5 in New York @ HT.

DC could be a good one but I'm off to bed soon. Will update fully tomorrow.

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing again.

I need to crunch the data properly before I do anything to ensure it's all 100% but as things are, when I get home I may be switching things around. By that I mean, I continue tracking and developing this very specific set of rules but build a bank initially around my standard LCS data. It does implement different 1x2 odds as from all the data I have various scorelines are more likely too see more goals depending on the odds of the teams involved. That said, it is a lot more across the board as it were.

For now....I'm away and it's not the priority:

[Richard Latimer]

So for today:

None of the overnighters hit required criteria.

[Richard Latimer]

Thanks everybody for your positive comments today. I do definitely have a decision to make imminently but even if I take the simplest route I won't get rid of the angles I've been looking at. It's taken me too damn long to collate them and I belive strongly it's worth continuing to collect the data for each. Hell, if I'm ever able to get it so that nothing comes in or out and then find a way of automation it could be a goldmine.

I'm on holiday at the moment so no decisions to be made until I get back.

The one thing about taking higher odds at present is it puts my stake under the minimum and hence makes it difficult at some amounts. I could of course back the overs but I much prefer laying to win a set amount.

[Akiva Anderson]

Of course he has something. He’s that much information he’s bound to have something! The trick is to simplify it and execute it. He knows this already

[Martin Walker]

My LCS has a similar strike rate with half the results of yours and has given me 40 points from march. Plus its so easy, takes literally a few minutes a day.
Sounds like you have something there

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer the sooner you get rid of that huge sheet of scenarios the better, if this other thing you have looked at does just that then absolutely go for it. That list is really bad mate far too much going on. If your looking at those %s for lcs and fhgs then start getting really into that. Once you then start tracking odds for these youll be winning. Literally look at the best traders on here. How simple do they make all this. There is a reason, its called consistency. You doing all these scenarios is gonna be harder to manage and a total ball ache in busy time in the winter leagues get back up. Less is more even in terms of criteria as you avoid mistakes and can manage it better. That list is prone to a few brain farts regardless of how focussed you are.

I really hope this new data set you are looking into has finally been the lightbulb moment you need. Its literally what we have all be trying to tell you. You have a habit of getting into these situations of good data and then making mistakes, like the lay the dog one. There have been many other examples in your time on btc. Please make sure this moment of realisation is used correctly and gets you onto a path of actually building a bank. It doesnt need to be the best strategy on here or some golden ticket, just enough to build a bank. Its not about fame or being the founder of x strategy just get this going for yourself. We will all support anyone doing well on here.

Its why i always say its easy to build a profitable strategy in fact its the easiest thing about trading, all it takes is a good run of data and you manipulate it enough till its shows green, the hardest part is managing it mentally. Those are things i hope you manage better with this. I have had my say now and will hopefully come back in a few months time and see you have progressed further and ditched that huge list of scenarios. Good luck buddy

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

As an aside, just done a quick tally on my LCS's that I had been keeping an eye on previously.

Now tallies 724 selections inc. 145 FHG. FHG's are 85%.
LCS are hovering between 88-91%

This looks to be the avenue to go down if my current idea loses steam or doesn't pick up steam quickly enough.

LCS are quite possibly the easiest trade to execute so no reason at all not to just go and do it now. Start with the easiest solution and add in as little complication as you have to in order to get it to work. You dont need more than one option, just do LCS

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

As an aside, just done a quick tally on my LCS's that I had been keeping an eye on previously.

Now tallies 724 selections inc. 145 FHG. FHG's are 85%.
LCS are hovering between 88-91%

This looks to be the avenue to go down if my current idea loses steam or doesn't pick up steam quickly enough.

get doing that now? isnt that way better already than what you have?