Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Another weekend comes to a close. Small green overall even if 2pts red today. More patterns emerge and more potential trades moving forward.

Only trade I wouldn't take again based on data so far is Liverpool M in Uruguay.

FHG's and 2nd FHG's. Seems that it's the middle ground where the odds are concerned that sees a game with fewer goals. There aren't a massive amount but adding high home odds to the low ones when it's 0-1 or 0-0 FH adds around 10 more trades and most of them winners.

Today would have seen Trencin in a 2nd FHG winner and Boleslav in a FHG winner based on this.

0-2 as an entry point following a quick 2nd half goal is now gaining enough traction to make it its own category ratrther than lumping with the other BOR (best of the rest) as I have done prev. This has enabled me to look at it and so far it looks like another goal should be forthcoming with the first arriving as late as the 57th. This added Leverkusen today (although I wasn't in it for anything than a 2nd FHG personally) and a Paraguayan game that saw a late goal.

I've updated all results on the sheet and the seperate tab labeled as copy sheet where all guidelines are detailed.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest. Aus already done but not a qualifier anyway:

[Richard Latimer]

One more thing, I continue to collect data for the teams averaging higher than 2.4 home goals a game and will look at these after 1 full month. Initial thoughts are they COULD be useful at times but this is where the odds often get crazy both in terms of home superiority and goal expectation.

Take Salzburg yesterday for example. I didn't look inplay but the goal odds pre-game across the books were crazy low and so I imagine they stayed that way inplay.

[Richard Latimer]

A quick update before I crack on with the day. I really feel this is going places now as I started with just a couple of angles but the more data I'm able to mine the more patterns I'm able to see. One negative is the sheet is getting pretty big now and the bigger it gets the more confusing it gets contantly chopping and changing criteria in the filters to check on individual angles.

Last night all I could see were random numbers jumping out at me and I couldn't think straight so saved and went to bed. It's always easier with a coffee the next morning provided there's time to do it.

I find the odd mistake here and there as I'm entering everything manually and I guess that will always happen. Easily enough corrected when I see it.

Anyway, yesterday led me to another conclusion. I've recently found a decent angle for laying the 0-0 when certain things are just so......maybe the same could be done FH. Turns out this may be possible. Even a small window for double bubble of getting FHG come in between 20-22 mins and then having a 2nd appear incredibly probable at that stage too.

I've added the guidelines but essentially it boils down to a strong home fave (1.49 or below) with higher than normal FH ave 0.9+ and a 1.24 min price for over 0.5 FH (all ave book prices).

So far getting in on 19mins (20th min) provides 18 selections since Dec with 14 of them being winners. I would imagine the price at that point would be similar to a 70th minute LCS so 75-80% would work very well.

On their own these all appear small numbers but together I have over 250 potential trades now of which 210 would have been winners. All since 15 Dec. And I know s/r without odds consideration is worthless but there is not a single entry before the 70th minute (20th FH) and plenty that are way way later.

Yesterday was 2/3 (although Wolfsburg FHG angle is one I only started looking at after the fact so I actually got 1/2 for a very small red.

Wolfsburg FHG - Green 1-0@HT - Goal on 31
Vorskla LCS 70th @ 0-1 - Red - Stayed that way.
Aarau LCS 70th @ 1-0 - Green - Ended 3-0.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest along with guidelines I'll be following:

[Richard Latimer]

Tomorrow looks busy but nothing until midday so I'll sort that when I wake.

Loads of new leagues starting but they'll be on the backburner until 4 matches played by each team just to get a bit of match fitness.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

CORRECTION:

Only one goal scored after HT in Roda before I entered. Shouldn't actually have been a selection. Just glad it came through.

[Richard Latimer]

Great day, 4pts green as documented on the football thread.

First off Maastricht scored in FH window of opportunity so I laid under 1.5 FH goal 25th minute and also immediately laid the under 2.5 @ I think 3.1.

Got well over 80% s/r on 1.5 FHG after a goal between 15-22 mins in a game with home favourite of 2.2 or less assuming FH goal odds 1.24 or more (these are ave book prices)

Also almost 88% s/r from almost 50 selection of laying under 2.5 at that point as well.

Excelsior ALMOST got me but the odds of over 05 for H2 were 1.12 and I've stated in my guidelines 1.13+.

Roda I went for 75th minute goal after 2 quick goals up to 59th minute. These are also over 86% at the moment from a price which is usually close enough to be just over evens (certainly under 2.5).

Breda I went for an 80th minute goal after 2 quick goals no later than 59th and another no later than 67th (as above guidelines). Initial s/r so far 75% on this and odds often below evens even if by just a little bit like tonight (I got 1.98).

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest looking for the right fitting match scenarios:

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing tomorrow but I will be tracking a game in Qatar and one in Serbia:

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

Just the one 2nd FHG trade for a small loss. Luckily Raith never gave me an opening in the match scenarios I'm looking for as just noticed they are a promoted side who haven't played the minimum required 10 home games thus far.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

First game of today starting in 5. Guidelines of what I'm looking for below:

Will be leaving Montana as only played 9 matches at home in top league since being promoted.

[Richard Latimer]

First game of today starting in 5. Guidelines of what I'm looking for below:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'm struggling for motivation to update tonight so I won't.

Here are tomorrow's fixtures of interest though:

2 successful trades today in Kuwait and Adanaspor with simple LCS on 70.

Was tempted to get on West Ham but held out as didn't quite fit.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm struggling for motivation to update tonight so I won't.

Here are tomorrow's fixtures of interest though:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Only a small loss but for a weekend, just literally almost nothing hit my parameters.

Yesterday 2 trades for a split and today 1 trade.

All flurrys of late goals and goals coming way too early in flurrys that never stopped.

Looking for alternative angles using the same filter and parameters and stumbled across this.

When a FH goal goes in between 14-22 there is so far, an 89% chance of the match going over 2.5 which is pretty good.

I'll certainly be keeping an eye on over 2.5 prices at this point.

I should clarify, this is for home faves of 2.2 or less as per current angle for 2nd FHG.

[Richard Latimer]

Only a small loss but for a weekend, just literally almost nothing hit my parameters.

Yesterday 2 trades for a split and today 1 trade.

All flurrys of late goals and goals coming way too early in flurrys that never stopped.

[Richard Latimer]

Playing a real long game here.

Karagumruk drew a blank despite 9 minutes of injury time so that's annoying.

So far it's the only trade today based on existing parametres. I'm guessing howeveer that things will evolve the more selectionsI get and certain things will be loosened for a slightly lower but all the more realistic sustainable s/r

Take Brondby today who broke the deadlock on 71mins. At the moment I'm only looking for strong home faves under 1.5 and home dogs 3.5 or more when the score is 0-0. Between 3-3.5 so far brings s/r down and has no real benefit. However a few more like Brondby and perhaps that's evaluated.

[Richard Latimer]

Todays fixtures of interest:

Yesterday was quiet in the end..

Only Molenbeek and Juve qualified for a 2nd half goal 50/50 split. Juve was a 3-1 entry after 2nd goal had gone in on 60 from the penalty spot.

2nd half 2 goal by 60 is only a 50/50 split on 4 selections now where as before that much better. Will be wary for now. Small data samples but I'm following them where they lead.