Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Quiet Saturday. Lay Under 1.5:
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Getting set early for the weekend so I can chill tomorrow evening onwards. Here are Fridays. All under 1.5 lays:
I'll post Saturdays later tonight and potentially even Sundays if I can get them done in time.
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The over lays are now exactly 50% for May which given the odds....is brilliant. And I missed one Iceland. Plus these have materialised from areas that were failing in the unders lays so there were potentially more.
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@Richard-Latimer said in 2022 was a small loss in the end - Let's see if 2023 is the year!!!:
Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.
Overnight Lay Over 1.5:
Real Salt Lake
0-0 and new bank high
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Football thread has gone a bit quiet of recent so I'm going to post here in addition.
Overnight Lay Over 1.5:
Real Salt Lake
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
The under 3.5 could be ready to go by start of winter leagues but it's just too much work right now and I'm going to have to shelve it. Have to put all my eggs in the over 1.5 and under 1.5 basket as that's what's most developed and takes less time currently.
I won't get rid of the data but there will be a large hole when I come back to it.
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The month that was April. Still areas that come up to be tweaked slightly but also some startling discoveries in terms of laying short prices. -1.45%ROI
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March, the month I discovered the Over 1.5 lay which has already been massive!!
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After a horrendous mid period I've pulled it back and come out of March with a plus.
Will post full update later!
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It also means that all of the data I was collecting that I thought served no purpose I've found a way to use it....just in a different way.
I've got 800 lines of data roughly and I've found use for 500 of them up to now. There is potential use for the rest but I'm in no hurry.
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Using the quiet time to loook into the over 1.5 lays in more detail. Calculating my s/r with longest expected losing streak and realised that not only can I match the profit on my under 1.5 lays I can potentially excede it.
So if the next 12 months were as the previous I've doubled my potential income stream. It really is up to me to capitalise now.
But 43.66% from 213 trades with a p/l based on single units of just over 57pts. Ave lay odds 1.3
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Only thing I'v noticed is that from back end of April 2022-Aug 2022 it made a very small loss. Every month since would have been postive with Oct and Nov making an absolute killing with s/r of over 50%
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On days where there's nothing happening I often look at my data and see if it can be used for anything else. Most recently I've been filtering all my non qualifiiers and noticed a massive deficit which when flipped the other way could result in a brilliant Lay Over 1.5 system. These aren't expected low goal games either.
However, the raw data for that would be much more selections than the system I started my sheet for so it still needed to be whittled down.
It seems that by carrying out the same process of elimination in terms of the bottom range/top range of numbers across all my data points I can do almost cut this in half while ALMOST doubling the profit.
A s/r of just under 40% for average back odds of around 5.0
I've got almost 250 selections as well so it's not like I need to prove the idea. It's proving itself every day one of the non qualifiers stays under 1.5
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Putting this in here rather than football thead as I missed it to post.
Laid Over 2.5 Farense v Lexoes (should have been over 3.5 but I missed it and decided as it was right in the sweet spot it should still be good. 0-0 @ HT right now.
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Feb started off well, bit of a downturn. Overall my data is firing but I'm being sensible. When I don't see enough lines qualifying on every single data point I look at (which means combining some as well) then I'm leaving well alone.
Obviously for each and every week, in theory, there should be a little more I am able to confidently trade until I am eventually able to trade it all. Were it to continue like that I've yet to see a sub 90% month on the current qualifying data as a whole since I started my spreadsheet in April 2022:
Anyway, this was current real time results for Feb.
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January wasn't bad. Can improve but it wasn't bad!
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Posting this in here so it doesn't get lost. Lay Under 1.5:
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@richard-latimer It's important when you feel you get confused to back away, I've always found doing nothing until I am clear is the best way, that and asking for help.
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I'm not going back and updating all from Dec. I have my own records and I also know if was a disappointing and dreadfully slow one. I also know the data continues to head in the right direction. If anything I've been super cautious and missed around 50% of the trades I could take while still managing to hit a loser I probably shouldn't have.
All this fannying around will pay dividends in the end. Just seems like the road gets a little longer every time I think I can see the end. I'm trying to keep things simple enough while continuing to analyse every piece of data I collect.
Look down the rabbit hole without falling in! I confuse myself sometimes and have to come back to it with fresh eyes but ultimately I always find a way to see clearly in the end and progress is being made. Both on the overs and the unders. I'm also looking at whether the overs are profitable over 2.5 - They most definitely are although profit less even taking into account some increased stakes.
Anyway in terms of a starting point and p/l I'm starting afresh from Jan having lost around £60-£70 in the end last year.
I'm -£2.49 from the first couple of days trading in January. Let's see if this is the year........
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:
In case it got lost in the ether.
Lay over 3.5 Raith
That was a disappointment
