Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Actually got a couple for tomorrow:
It's last day of the season for Offenbach tomorrow and while they can't do anything it looks like Mainz II are in a relegation battle. Any second half trade will depend on how much they still have to play for at 70 mins.
I'm going to take a break from posting when I get on something as it's causing waves at the moment and I just need to concentrate on righting the ship.
Everything will remain transparent as ever on here though.
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This is beginning to get like dear diary....
Apparently my interior light was on ffs! God knows when that happened because I didn't even notice. More than likely the reason behinf battery being dead as a dodo.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Jesus. Hope he's okay.
It happens every year unfortunately. Some type of grass he's allergic to and they are cutting it all right now.
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Jesus. Hope he's okay.
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More non trading related stuff. Son's seasonal asthma kicked in bad today and he's made his first trip up to the hospital. Year just keep getting shitter!
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@darri 100% promise that if I've not made significant gains by the end of June (possibly July given that at this rate I'll be lucky to even get a couple of trades in this month haha!) I will take my idea back to papertrading and piggyback off someone else until mine is ready.
Missed something.
You can quote me on that.
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@darri
@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer Good post bud, it is great to hear that your in a better mindset in terms of discipline and determination to succeed. Stuart is spot on and its the same message we keep trying to tell you. There are already proven strats that are at a far more advanced stage than your strategy. Trade that and in the background test this, im finding it very strange that your not seeing that. None of us are saying this strategy wont work or that it could be the next best thing, but its too early. Its not yet consistent enough. You keep saying on the football thread after certain games that lose that you go a should have seen this or oh well ill change that going forward. You dont see any of that from the proven strats or traders. Your post says about newbies overtaking you, there are numerous examples of traders doing this, the profile of why these guys do well is cause they actually soak up the info and then adapt it to theirs. You have been trying gambling and trading for 15 years and still your on min stakes, ask yourself why? I know why, its cause your not listening to anyones advice. Anytime someone has offered advice you just go nah ill let my stuff continue for a while longer, each time more denial. You got over confident in the underdog lays when it was on a purple patch and still made mistakes when everyone else made profit. Your trying to invent the best strategy ever, its a flawed thought, you only need to have a strategy that makes profit regularly enough for you to compound the bank. Its why people get fed up cause it never looks like a lot of money at first, but smart traders understand that and allow it to work away in background. Your biggest issue is your need for this to work. The fact you need this to work baffles me that you are not actually trading the already tried and tested strats, that pretty much guarantee money, id say if you traded them youd make on average 30% bank growth every month, compound that every month and given your bank that would be life changing in 1 years time. Right now your growth is nowhere near that because your strategy isnt optimised enough to hit that yet. Please bud, every single trader is saying the same thing yet your even taking it onboard your then making this big post to try say your right and we are wrong. We all want you to succeed like we do with everyone on this site to beat the markets, to beat the markets you dont need some quirky extravagant system you just need something simple, that you can EASILY repeat game after game, week in week out. Right now i just feel like your doing the opposite of that!! As a full time trader i truly dont believe your model is workable long term and there will be burntout stages to come using that huge sheet.
So now its upto you mate, you keep making us all want to help because you keep making points on here that are things we see as being backwards. So we help and offer advice. Trader after trader over the last month or 2 has said the same thing. Its now upto you to listen and take that on board and given they are all consistently profitable and making a living from it and your still 15 years in and not, maybe for once its time to listen bud. Tried to be a bit more home truth like here cause trying to word it carefully before didnt seem to resonate. Stop being defensive and stop wasting huge potential gains, every day you persist without using the other strats your losing bank. Your strategy isnt gonna die its still gonna grow but youll have the safety of the original strats, once your stratgey is proven to be better than them then move on, if it doesnt then you then dont need to worry about a new stratgey cause you already have proven ones working. Stop letting everyone over take you mate and dont be stubborn, the reason im most vocal is quite honestly because im extremely stubborn too and its a negative trait, its something i work on every week. Some of the pros are gonna stop offering advice because your never taking it on board, fantastic traders yet you think differently. Listening to advice doesnt make you weak it makes you stronger over time. Dont let stubborn pride get in the way. Its whats got you in trouble this past year, its time to make this change mate, for the better and give yourself that life of trading you deserve. Like i say iv been more direct here cause im stubborn and feel like im just one lightbulb moment away from transforming your trading, messages before never work so hope this one will. Keith tried the other day to be blunt and tell you how it is yet you just came up with some excuse. Please listen lad
@Darri gave me some simliar advice on my thread and i changed i use the ryans split stake, sturarts LTD, SHG and follow keiths 1.5.i have made steady profit and tbh its made life easier as i know they proven. I made about 10 points last month i think off them and i wish i done it sooner. less trading more points as 2 of them are set and forget. Not trying to tell you what to do mate. Just i followed peoples advise and its be really helpful for my trading
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@richard-latimer Good post bud, it is great to hear that your in a better mindset in terms of discipline and determination to succeed. Stuart is spot on and its the same message we keep trying to tell you. There are already proven strats that are at a far more advanced stage than your strategy. Trade that and in the background test this, im finding it very strange that your not seeing that. None of us are saying this strategy wont work or that it could be the next best thing, but its too early. Its not yet consistent enough. You keep saying on the football thread after certain games that lose that you go a should have seen this or oh well ill change that going forward. You dont see any of that from the proven strats or traders. Your post says about newbies overtaking you, there are numerous examples of traders doing this, the profile of why these guys do well is cause they actually soak up the info and then adapt it to theirs. You have been trying gambling and trading for 15 years and still your on min stakes, ask yourself why? I know why, its cause your not listening to anyones advice. Anytime someone has offered advice you just go nah ill let my stuff continue for a while longer, each time more denial. You got over confident in the underdog lays when it was on a purple patch and still made mistakes when everyone else made profit. Your trying to invent the best strategy ever, its a flawed thought, you only need to have a strategy that makes profit regularly enough for you to compound the bank. Its why people get fed up cause it never looks like a lot of money at first, but smart traders understand that and allow it to work away in background. Your biggest issue is your need for this to work. The fact you need this to work baffles me that you are not actually trading the already tried and tested strats, that pretty much guarantee money, id say if you traded them youd make on average 30% bank growth every month, compound that every month and given your bank that would be life changing in 1 years time. Right now your growth is nowhere near that because your strategy isnt optimised enough to hit that yet. Please bud, every single trader is saying the same thing yet your even taking it onboard your then making this big post to try say your right and we are wrong. We all want you to succeed like we do with everyone on this site to beat the markets, to beat the markets you dont need some quirky extravagant system you just need something simple, that you can EASILY repeat game after game, week in week out. Right now i just feel like your doing the opposite of that!! As a full time trader i truly dont believe your model is workable long term and there will be burntout stages to come using that huge sheet.
So now its upto you mate, you keep making us all want to help because you keep making points on here that are things we see as being backwards. So we help and offer advice. Trader after trader over the last month or 2 has said the same thing. Its now upto you to listen and take that on board and given they are all consistently profitable and making a living from it and your still 15 years in and not, maybe for once its time to listen bud. Tried to be a bit more home truth like here cause trying to word it carefully before didnt seem to resonate. Stop being defensive and stop wasting huge potential gains, every day you persist without using the other strats your losing bank. Your strategy isnt gonna die its still gonna grow but youll have the safety of the original strats, once your stratgey is proven to be better than them then move on, if it doesnt then you then dont need to worry about a new stratgey cause you already have proven ones working. Stop letting everyone over take you mate and dont be stubborn, the reason im most vocal is quite honestly because im extremely stubborn too and its a negative trait, its something i work on every week. Some of the pros are gonna stop offering advice because your never taking it on board, fantastic traders yet you think differently. Listening to advice doesnt make you weak it makes you stronger over time. Dont let stubborn pride get in the way. Its whats got you in trouble this past year, its time to make this change mate, for the better and give yourself that life of trading you deserve. Like i say iv been more direct here cause im stubborn and feel like im just one lightbulb moment away from transforming your trading, messages before never work so hope this one will. Keith tried the other day to be blunt and tell you how it is yet you just came up with some excuse. Please listen lad
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Richard, I don't think anyone cast doubt on your system/strategy. The reason being we can't really know anything about as you only have at best @100 pieces of data for each scoreline. Frankly, that's nowhere near enough to be confident.
By all means collect more data on this, but in the period of data collection there is a tonne of other systems etc that you could use to build your bank. You don't need to use money on this system yet.
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In the absence of anything trading related I think I'll post some waffle.
Firstly it was my intention to vent this morning after finding out my car battery was dead only a year after the bastard garage replaced it therefore going just over the warranty period so they have to do bugger all!
Then I realised an ubereats order hadn't gone through wiith promo code and I've spent all day chasing that.
What a shitty day frankly!!
Anyway, I decided as I calmed down and began to resolve things, I didn't need to do that anymore haha!!
So, a quick overview of where I think my trading is now and what I believe I've collected so far with my pretty much 6 months data grab.
I understand why somebelieve I'm being overtaken by the newbs after I've spent almost half my life looking for the perfect system or why others see a noisy sheet they can't make head nor tail of.
But I think I need to look at it as a series of points more than anything to hopefully shows the growth I have made of recent. Sure, there are still negatives which I'll get to but they are in my opinion outweighed by the positives.
- Discipline. It used to be I would miss a bet/trade and it would consume me until I had to try and win double on the next so it would be alright again. Of course what happened is that would lose and I would effectively be two trades down rather than 1/2. These days, while it still annoys me, I take it on the chin. If I know of a reason from my data to stay the hell out I do.
It's taken me over 15yrs to conquer that one but I have.
- continued tracking of the same data and not throwing away what I initially perceive to be unimportant data. I have the excel smart filters to thank for this (thanks @Alan Steward - Not letting me tag) as I could never collect and sort through so much data with all of it being continually in my face. The fact I can block out whatever I want whenever I want has allowed me to concentrate on things individually while not losing sight of what could still be.
In the past I would have got 3 months in, hit a bad run, got annoyed, deleted (archived) it all and gone back to the drawing board. I now view my spreadsheet as perhaps the most important thing I have and the idea of deleting any of it would be inconceivable to coin 'The Princess Bride'.
- Effort and determination. I update the sheet day in day out (ok some days I'll do it the next day) win or lose and I spend whatever time I need analysing the crap out of it. Not just to get rid of results I don't like but to optimise every single thing. Finding the sweet spot is what it's all about. Much like Arteta, it's a process and I would say I'm in the middle of it. It won't all be smooth sailing but I trust my data and I trust the hands/eyes that have put it together meticulously.
Where I've failed mostly can be put down to one thing. Leaving too many things to chance. When I've made a note for example that red cards haven't been a problem in certain scenarios but failed to note there hadn't been one. Where I've misread the data or noticed soething so glaringly obvious until it was too late.
In an effort to address some of that I spent a good portion of time yesterday putting more detailed information in my lists of criteria that I check before pulling the trigger on anything.
On to the data itself. I would like address some potential misunderstanding people may have about just how much data I have collected so far and in terms of blanket strategy like LCS, how it could already be argued I have enough just on that basis:
LCS 0-0 @ HT Home odd 1.49 or under 91% from 44 selections
LCS 0-1 @ HT Home odds 2.72 or under 88% from 80 selections
LCS 1-0 @ HT Home odds 1.69 or under 88% from 100 selections
LCS 1-1 @ HT 88% from 132 selctions
LCS 2-0 @ HT 91% from 101 selectionsThat's just raw data using home SH averages around 0.7 upwards. Sometimes a little higher. Yes I'm trying to optimise it so I can keep a decent strike rate while getting in later and for a much better price.
But 450 selections since mid Dec on these base statistics is what gives me confidence on the whole thing.
I just need some actual workable trades now, of which there are none. The old me would have found something else. The new me sits patiently waiting for the opportunity which will come in time.
Excuse typos. I'm sure there will be many haha!
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Nothing again tomorrow. The one I did have isn't on Betfair.
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Nothing for tomorrow. It's like the worlds worst and longest interlull!
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Finally got an actual trade yesterday. Turned out to be a loser. Plenty of action and it didn't look like either team were playing to keep the score the same (3 sot, 6 shots off and a bunch of corners in 20 minutes).
Katowice - (Pol 2). 2 quick goals 2nd half, laid under 5.5 @ 4-1 70th minute. Matched @ 2.60. Loss. -1.6pts (-£2.61).
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Bit late but it's doesn't look like anything is going to happen with Atlanta anyway.
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Nothing so far today again although JBK only ruled out because of red and only because the scenario hadn't arisen before. Until the data shows otherwise that would be a qualifier.
Frustrating but 7 winners on the bounce and none of them quite fit at the time haha!
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Gonna post these out now cos I'm getting fershnickered today!
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CC Mariners didn't qualify for LCS today on account of the max home odds limit for 1-0 being 1.69 thus far. Nothing to change view on that so far despite today.
That said, when I looked into things a little more this morning something else became apparent as is so often the case.
I had minimum odds limit for over 0.5 SH as 1.12 (remember, these are all taken from ave book price on oddsportal). When I opened that particular criteria out just to get a look at the overall picture I noticed there were too more winners under that limit (1.09 & 1.10). When I imposed the limit it wasn't because I'd had losers at those limits, just no winners yet. Always prefer to exclude and let stuff in rather than the other way around if I remember. It's better for me this way.
Anyway, I follow the data so both Gladbach and Gent are now on the qualifiers. No good for now but very important for the future rounding this thing out.
Don't worry about Lorient. that was already there.
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No that's not right. Get rid of both Sweden games. All others check out fine.
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Finally got a few to look at again:
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Spreadsheet is showing the last 6 trades (COULD HAVE BEEN) as winners.
Al ruled out by the smallest little detail plainly and simply because I didn't have it in my data yet. Going forward they would all be selections until the data tells me otherwwise. Sods law, next time it would be another slight detail missing haha!! Either way, that's how I'm reverse engineering this thing. For clarity it was:
Kansas ruled out by 3rd second half goal coming a minute too late according to the data I had
Wellington Phoenix ruled out by scoreline after the 2nd second half goal not being one I had any data for on the angle I was looking at (a goal in the 60's and another in the 70's).
KR Reykjavik ruled out on odds
Offenbach ruled out on odds
Dortmund II ruled out on odds and home ave being higher than what I had data forFinally tonight, Grotta, ruled out on odds.
