Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

I'm cutting my paper trades down today as I would have to look to do in reality. Taking the most exciting parts of what I have and simply moving the rest to the side for now.

Everyone knows (or should that) while 0-0 is the least likely scoreline in football it is also the scoreline which heralds the least number of goals after a certain point in a game. Yes, there can be value and often is but as seen in Jan, there could be a fair bit of variance some months. Under 50% from 67th minute I think it was for January. Those are crazy figures and while you can sit and remove every league where you get a poor result you can also do what I'm doing which is to avoid them entirely. I must add that were I not finding so many other avenues of potentially greater value I wouldn't be so quick to come to this conclusion.

I am also continuing to track them in the background so nothing will ever truly go away.

However.....leaning in the direction I am currently leaning, what I am seeing so far is no requirement to remove any leagues at all. The dominant factor appears to be goals, when they were scored, who they were scored by and what the odds of said team winning are/were pre kick-off.

I have taken everything on board about mastering one strat before moving on to another and while this is several different ways of playing one game I don't believe it is really any more than one strat, just adapting to the odds and what is happening on the field.

I have but one filter and it is giving me all the angles I currently need.

FHG+ Early goal is scored by a fave of 2.2 or below prior to 23rd minute. At this point I will wait until the 30th minute (29 mins on the clock) to lay under 1.5 FH. FH home ave must also be 0.7 or above and ave book price for FH goal must not be below 1.26 currently.

LCS Score is 1-1 @ HT, ave book price for H2 over 0.5 is 1.14min and no further scores where game is approaching 70mins. Home ave for H2 must be 0.7 or above but overall ave must not be any lower than 1.6 or any higher than 2.3. 70th minute (69 mins on the clock) entry for this.

LCS70. 2 differing ways of dealing. With a home fave of 2.2 or less and an early goal that puts home side into a 1 goal loss I would look to enter for another goal on 70mins. For a home team of no higher than 3.58 put into a 1-1 or 2-2 scoreline by an early goal (pre 60mins) I would look for another goal with a 70th minute entry.

LCS75 needs 2 quick goals by either team making any scoreline. Would enter for another 75th minute.

LCS80 needs 2 quick goals pre 60 minute mark and another pre 70 minute mark. Would enter for another in the 80th.

I don't have a massive amount of data but I'm collecting it every day and what I do have is incredibly favourable.

Goals breed goals and those on top breed more goals.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.

Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.

Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.

Although not inplay and not part of my trading plan for what ultimately played out today it did have 2 late goals so do I include it or not in sheet? My gut says yes because it's part of the data subset. Would I be so keen if it had lost though haha?!

[Richard Latimer]

Not sure if it will be on Betfair but looking at NEROCA v Chennai in India tomorrow.

Predominantly looking for late goal if 1-1 and no prior H2 goals, late goal if 1-1 after quick early H2 goal, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals, late goal if 2 quick H2 goals followed by another before 70.

Entry point would be 70 in first 2 instances, 75 in the next and 80 in the next.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.

Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.

When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.

This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.

54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)

I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what ithey were for a FHG, possibly even better it?

It's actually 66% from 29 selections - was looking at goals from 24mins onwards as opposed to 30mins. Still plenty good enough and initally much better than 0-1 which is so far a bit meh.

In fairness looking at 30mins + with 0-1 also takes that down to 50% 12 selections before tonight.

[Richard Latimer]

I wanted to look at what effect the first scoreline in the game is having to the 2nd FHG and it's kind of what I thought I was seeing. I imagine everyone thinks that the favourite goes behind and is desperate to get back in so therefore another goal before HT becomes more likely. What I'm seeing is actually the opposite.

Dog scores and the fav thinks, we have all the time in the world. They're not busting a gut to get back into it before HT. Plenty of time on the clock. Meanwhile I suppose, the dog has something to hold on to becomes more defensive.

When the home favourite is out of the blocks quickly I'm guessing they want to to turn that into a quick 2-0 lead. This in turn leads to many 2-0's and 1-1's as they get caught on the break and the away side thinks, s**t we better get our act together.

This is all summising and data is low so far but I'm doing what I always do and trying to find a reason for the pattern to continue or not.

54% 2nd FHG 30+ (13 selections) - less after tonight
70% 2nd FHG 30+ (33 selections)

I would also imagine the odds COULD be better for another FHG. Everyone thinks the home side is 1-0 up, no need to force anything and the general concensus is odds should probably mirror what they were for a FHG, possibly even better it?

[Richard Latimer]

A win in Randers for 2nd half lcs. Goal coming on 68.

[A Former User]

@mark-gorton Went in at 81 mins U1.5 at 1.65....I was happy with the way the game was moving but it wasn't to be.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer OK Richard I will let you know when I do. Because they are only £2 bets I laid U1.5 on 29 mins but cant remember the odds although they were OK. Not done anything the second half as but might go in at 1.7 in a couple of minutes again small odds.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...

If you are doing these for small stakes would be good if you can get some live prices?

[A Former User]

C'est la vie, now to move on to the 2H. I would like a few more shots on target but lets see...

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Waiting with baited breath lol

[Richard Latimer]

Viitorul about to move into 2nd FHG territory.

[Richard Latimer]

Flash in the pan or better entry point for a 2nd FHG. This last weekend showed me the 30th minute could bee slightly better than 31st. For the 1 or 2 ticks you'd lose in value you potentially grab a few more fish on the hook.

Small data so far but 61% s/r from 41 selections hitting a 2nd FHG in 30th minute. By 30 mins you have cut the odds down to under evens for most I am pretty sure and sometime a fair bit under.

[Richard Latimer]

Bit of time:

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.

Slightly better as I missed the FHG greeen in Javor.

In any case, I'll posted todays in a while but Viitorul looking good for both FH & SH.

[Richard Latimer]

I'll update the sheet tomorrow but I would say that's no worse than a break even day with 3 green trades and 3 reds at probably pretty decent odds.

[Richard Latimer]

I've not checked in full today but it seemed a bit of an iffy day.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.

Options is what I'm going for but bear in mind the averages and starting odds etc...as I do make mistakes.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I followed it until the Aarhus match and was looking at the first half goals due to the better odds in placed in the half time market. Still very good mate. I didn't trade as many but followed the flow and can see that the hit rate is pretty high...again I am saying this from a position of little knowledge but enjoying the amount of options this sheet throws up. Best regards.

[Richard Latimer]

@mark-gorton said in All Goals Are Equal But Some Goals Are More Equal Than Others:

@richard-latimer Hi Richard, I have been following your data and excel predictions for a couple of weeks. I have traded a few at small odds because I am then confident that I would put real money using those stats further down the line. Yesterday had amazing results even though I didn't follow them all. Great stuff mate and the data and detail is way beyond anything I could do at my stage of the game ( Newbie)

If you did do anything at all today I hope you realised my mistake in fhg Lazio seeing as FH ave was only 0.5.