Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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I still won't shy away from making this a SHG play though.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Laid under 0.5 FH Zamalek @ 3.4
Looking very much like another in the loss column. It's no secret I find that big numbers can be just as dertimental as the smaller ones and for this 1.7 ave for home hitting the back of the net FH is one of those. It's the highest within my 100+ selections for FH goal and of course it loses.
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Laid under 0.5 FH Zamalek @ 3.4
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Laid under 0.5 FH Zamalek @ 3.4
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Time to get on another run tomorrow/today.
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So the picture illustrates what's been going on since Fri.
Last nights crazy game in Brazil no longer makes the cut (despite the low odds) with my tigtening of the 1-1 scoreline. It leaves the only losing game as the one in Norway today.
I'm not amending and tightening for the sake of it. That one stays. It would be made again as things stand.
On the left is also the matches that qualified for my other project and would have won.
1.5 data I continue to collect and it continues to look good but a looooong way to go.
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Finally finally finished. If you're like me, when faced with a daunting task you keep wandering off to eat or looking at what's happening on twitter, is there any transfer news etc.... anything to procrastinate from the task at hand haha!!
I'll leave tonight. It's a poor start to the week but before that I was happy enough and in a few days I'm sure I'll be happy enough once more.
It would be easy to put a pessimistic view on things. At one point I was 9pts up for the weekend and ended on a paltry 2pts. However, the 2pts were earned while I was away with friends camping and took me a matter of minutes to apply the trades. I still missed a few as late nighters and everyone had retired to their tents for the night so damned if I was staying up just for that.
Yesterday took a hit when Jorge Wilstermann failed to score in the FH @ odds of 8.00. All this has done is helped me to tighten up. Those odds are an outlier. I have 2 selections now with these odds from over 100 and it's an easy way to tighten up for sure.
Before that I'd gone 15/15 since the loss in Brazil on the 12th and managed to make that 11/11 in real money.
I have also looked at the 1-1 scoreline and managed to tighten that up a bit as well seeing as it was the only one falling to around 88%. Total ave goals 3.05 is only giving around 78% and taking up 18 selections or so. It makes sense to remove this for now. 3.10-3.85 is the new/current window. 1-1 is now back up to 89.52% and crucially ave odds/ave losing odds have stayed the same.
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Seeing as it was a sizeable odds loss I just want to address a couple of things that are likely to come up straight off the bat.
- It is the first LCS loss in that division and there have been 9 selections before tonight so it remains profitable.
- It is only the 3rd LCS from 31 selections @ ave odds over 0.5 H2 1.10 to lose so again assuming those are mostly around 8.0 to lay on betfair it is again very defintely still profitable at this time.
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Week starts off poor. Nothing else for today so should be able to get my update finished fairly soon now.
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Still updating. A weekend takes a while when you've been away.
Laid under 1.5 Valerenga II @ 8.0
.95p stakeAnother £10 into the bank today as well as it's been 2 weeks since my last deposit.
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Well I'm lying in bed watching the Brazilian game in bet365 through the inplay stats and that was just ridiculous.
2 goals ruled out through VAR and a missed pen. What more could have been done to get a single goal haha! Disappointing end but it's not so bad. At least the Bolivian one came through.
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Off to bed now but will update properly tomorrow. It's been a good weekend up until a high priced FHG which I'm still ok with even though it remained 0-0 typically enough. Bank is creeping up and I've decided that the price I took going on how many are actually that price, was too high so it bodes well for the future.
There's a couple in play now as I head for the stairs.
Same game in Bolivia laying 0-0 @ 11.00 and Fortaleza laying 1-1 for only 3.7.
This is what's on the cards for tomorrow although I'm highly unlikely to be awake for the overnighters.
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Not updating now as just got back but currently on a streak of 6 which had the games been at a mores reasonable time would have been a streak of 9.
Missed a FHG and SHG in Louisville and a SHG in Sacramento. I don't feel bad about this though as I was camping and everyone went to bed eearly the last night. No point in me staying up for hours looking at my phone haha!
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So the streak of 8 came to an end in Brazil. Hopefully I can build another from here.. Won't be any updates over the next couple of days as I'm going camping.
Here are the potentials along with base criteria I follow:
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lay under 3.5 CRB @ 4.3
Currently 3-0 @ HTOdds this low a bit hit and miss but the sample size is small and I must follow the overall picture.
Another in the lower lay odds range struggling. There's no way I'd ever remove better value odds or what should be perceived as better value odds so maybe this does just point to the league itself. A couple of the struggling ones such as Ukraine and Mexico are represented at this point and surprisingly enough none of the high performing big leagues.
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Lay under 3.5 CRB @ 4.3
Currently 3-0 @ HTOdds this low a bit hit and miss but the sample size is small and I must follow the overall picture.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Nothing came of the first 2. Elva inplay now as a possible 2nd half play.
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I've not updated ave prices since I posted last time but what I did think would be interesting is to calculate ave odds for the losers rather than just overall. It's what I would expect in as much as the averages are all at least a little bit higher and sometimes by quite a bit:
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3/3 today
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Lay under 2.5 Kaapo @ 4.9
Currently 1-1 HT -
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Lahden Reipas most likely a FHG too. Odds currently 1.37. If it starts 1.45 or under that's good enough for me.
Laid under 0.5 FH @ a mix of 4.6/4.7
0-1
1-1 HT.
Lay under 2.5 @ 6.6
