Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Ok so I don't know if anyone has taken a look at the figures I put up last night for individual leagues on both the SHG & FHG but now I have a bit of time I can address some things.

Firstly, as you can see, while I have a total of over 100 FHG qualifiers ticking along very well it's incredibly hard to get too much of a league sample at present. These are very spread out and have a very strict/limited criteria.

There are a few leagues in the red but with a maximum of only one loss. Just a question of not having much qualify in each yet. Also, the same rules of shitty leagues doesn't seem to apply fully here.

Chile, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Vietnam...all successful so far. Of course it only takes one in each to flip that but the system as a whole is working well.

For the bottom feeding leagues it's quite normal to see 1 or 2 FHG and then both teams play out a dud second half so this doesn't actually surprise me.

Moving on.....

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 2.5 Mainz II

Goals galore in that second half so a win to get baack on track. Odds were 5.9.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 2.5 Mainz II

[Richard Latimer]

Just throwing these out before bed:

Regionalliga Sudwest has had 10 selections with 9/10 winners. The loser was towards the heavier side but I believe this is one of those 0-0 potential changes I mentioned that I'lll go into more.

Kakkonen Groub B is without loss from 9 and the Irish only has one selection but a winner.

[Richard Latimer]

Waaahhhhh what a fun evenign that was. This was only supposed to take a couple of hours but as it is I've spent all night doing it!! Worth it though and I did notice something which not oonly cuts down selections on 0-0 but increases both profit and s/r.

If it was earlier I'd be going into this and all my findings/thoughts.

But it isn't. I'm bloody tired and so I'll just leave this here tonight and come back to it tomorrow!

[Richard Latimer]

Only potential today is not inplay. A good time to get my league analysis done which I've already started.

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman I think I'll go through the leagues again tonight and post up some numbers for the qualifiers.

[Richard Latimer]

@lee-woodman in terms of liquidity I mostly have. Yes some would be no good Inna few years but until the bank has multiplied 10 fold the money I'm seeing available is plenty in lower Norwegian leagues for example.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer If i were you i would firstly remove all games that you know from experience have bad liquidity, because once stakes increase you will need to cut them out anyway. Plus they are unreliable. Obviously everyones list will vary slightly but most people who did this would have a list that looks 90% the same as everyone else. Then secondly i would only include those leagues with over say 20 games AND are profitable. Leagues can then be added once they prove themselves, rather than poor leagues dragging the results down until they are deemed so crap they are removed. I think this would be a game changer, you just have to have the idea of 'less but better'

[Richard Latimer]

As for Honduras I'm not even going to record these games anymore as liqudity really is p**s poor on them!

[Richard Latimer]

At the end of each month I'll go through all the data quickly to see whether any criteria can be relaxed or anything done in general to improve things.

Alot of the numbers have very broad ranges actually and FHG seems to suffer badly if going out of these ranges more than any of the others so most things staying the same.

Where I can improve slightly is by upping my max home odds on 1-0 score to 1.74 and removing Chile completely. It saves me trusting them only to come empty again saying well I won't do that again haha!

So I've re-jigged the p/l based on averages and I think I must have been tired last time as some of the figures didn't add up. They're still very good, just not as insane as I had them in some cases haha!!

That said, I work out for all scorelines I'm currently trading it should be +507.78pts profit to level stakes since mid Dec last year.

There is a very real possibility it would be more as this is based on the losers lay price being same as average book price for overs. The lay price is less the vast majority of the time.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 1.5 Cottbus @ 7.6
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.29

Win to finish the day off. Around £11.00 loss today but I'll update exactly later.

As of last night bank was £155.05. At the end of today it is £143.93 so -£11.12 which is still less than the loss on 1/8 and also less in terms of bank percentage as bank has grown.

It will take more than likely 7 good trades to get back out in front and raise the bank again which is perfectly doable. I will still be adding £5.00 on Friday unless that £5.00 does nothing to raise the bank to new stakes. In this case I would simply add £10.00 the week after instead.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@chris-osborne That was the 10th selection in that league Inc. FHG and the first loss so it's not a league I'm concerned about and the liquidity is ok most of the time.

Even if traded volume isn't huge the amounts available are plenty for a good while yet.

Also 18 selections in the other Norwegian lower league with only 2 losses there. Good thing is one of those wasn't inplay on betfair so swings and roundabouts I guess.

[Richard Latimer]

More annoying was Chile B. Should have known better but it won't happen again.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne That was the 10th selection in that league Inc. FHG and the first loss so it's not a league I'm concerned about and the liquidity is ok most of the time.

Even if traded volume isn't huge the amounts available are plenty for a good while yet.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 Cottbus @ 7.6
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.29

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Wouldn't be anything to do with the standard of leagues your trading?

You don't have to trade everything on your list, stop if its not going your way, protecting the bankroll is half my battle

I check these all the time. If something looks ropey it will be red listed. Bad days happen.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer Wouldn't be anything to do with the standard of leagues your trading?

You don't have to trade everything on your list, stop if its not going your way, protecting the bankroll is half my battle

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 2.5 Egersunds @ 7.0

Something about the first of the month. Heading for another significant loss.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 2.5 Egersunds @ 7.0