Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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As I thought, missed a winner overnight in Sacramento. As I always say in these cases, it's more data.
More importantly it also adds to the data on my over 1.5 which will be nice to get into for these late/early games.
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Saturdays list of potential HT LCS. Doubt I'll be up for Sacramento.
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Just updating on the other, now being tracked only, it was a 50/50 split as per:
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer yep always happens bud, remember tho easy to find a good strategy hard to manage it, first game in and made a mistake you havent been doing all this time recording. Im not being critical im trying to show you its not just all about data. The execution of the trade is paramount.
I know. I wasn't going to do it when I saw but then I reasoned as it was only a HT trade, there was really no reason not to.
It was a bad move, full stop.
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@richard-latimer yep always happens bud, remember tho easy to find a good strategy hard to manage it, first game in and made a mistake you havent been doing all this time recording. Im not being critical im trying to show you its not just all about data. The execution of the trade is paramount.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
LCS Aurora
Well it's customary to start poorly on any new venture so not the end of the world. Got 4.7.
In hindsight it's one I really shouldn't have taken as well as sofascore wasn't working on it to give updates. These I have usually just got rid of straight away as inplay trading difficult without Livescore.
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LCS Aurora
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
I'm also going to remove notifications on all the minute my trade is placed. Only update to results will be after the match has finished.
Perfect in theory until you realise you had a bet365 page open on the game haha!
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This post is deleted!
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I'm also going to remove notifications on all the minute my trade is placed. Only update to results will be after the match has finished.
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
1st trade in the new day as it were.
LCS IBV
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer People cant see the strides you have taken? What do you mean? We have at every single stage only ever offered our opinions based on experience of doing exactly what you are doing mistakes wise. These changes you keep making over long period of time, had you just tried and listened from months ago youd have already have done them. Its not a you vs us thing. This is a communtiy of lads all trying to do well in an industry that no one believes you can make money in.
This strike rate does sound great and i seriously hope the odds are also in your favour as this would be a lovely bank builder. Dont get over confident. Keep a calm head. We got seriously hyped with the lay the dog strat didnt turn out well long term. Im liking these changes tho and great steps being made. Finally could start to see a trader come through here.
Thanks @Darri , I only mean in as much as that I was being surpassed by others new to the site. It's an understable assumption to make but my data quietly amassing in the background always had me feeling confident. We shall see but like @Keith-Anderson said, it's now or never.
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@richard-latimer People cant see the strides you have taken? What do you mean? We have at every single stage only ever offered our opinions based on experience of doing exactly what you are doing mistakes wise. These changes you keep making over long period of time, had you just tried and listened from months ago youd have already have done them. Its not a you vs us thing. This is a communtiy of lads all trying to do well in an industry that no one believes you can make money in. The advice is never to be critical but helpful. The more good traders we have on here the better info everyone ends up getting.
This strike rate does sound great and i seriously hope the odds are also in your favour as this would be a lovely bank builder. Dont get over confident. Keep a calm head. We got seriously hyped with the lay the dog strat didnt turn out well long term. Im liking these changes tho and great steps being made. Finally could start to see a trader come through here. Remember tho dont go all this is a Gold Mine yet, you havent even traded it or managed it mentally yet. Stay calm. Almost every strategy tested looks great on paper, its why creating a strategy is super simple its managing it thats hard and why for example you have struggled for years and others have come into this and overlapped you in short time (including me for example)
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?
For now yes. Like I said, I'm still tracking my other idea as there's no way I'm throwing out 8 months of data and hard work when it's still in a very promising development phase. If I ever find a way to automate it and nothing goes in or out in terms of what was and wasn't a trade, it could become a goldmine.
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@richard-latimer i applaud you looking to simplify and while this is still OTT im glad its not a whole page long of scenarios, has this totally replaced the old long list?
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Right, I have simplified massively for this LCS @ HT venture. But I have still optimised where I can see there are initial misgivings at either end of the scale which affect the way things have gone so far in a big way. This is my current table for working out if a trade is permissable at HT and it's so easy a trained chimp could do it.
I still intend to look at oddsportal as the odds of things at some scorelines effect the outcome alot in my experience. There's a bit of chopping off at the top and bottom of some stats as is appropriate right now. But if things correct themselves over time I can simply add them back in.
NOTHING is lost as has been the case since last December now and while people can't see the strides I have taken I maintain this is the main one. At no point in the past would I have been able to hop so seamlessly from one thing to another with such complete confidence:
So 787 potential trades and nothing under 90% s/r if taking @ HT (kick-of for FHG).
This should in theory give way over 1,500 trades a year.
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I'm back home and totally worn out a 5hr drive home 150 miles in stop start traffic on the M5. Nonetheless I'm updating now as want to be fully prepared for tomorrow.
Not changed my mind. For now I need to bank build with something simple as has been said many times BUT.....to chuck all my hard work away in terms of the other stuff I've been looking at would be criminal. It needs developing and it needs the time/space to show it's not a fluke, not a coincidence and that most importantly.....it will rinse/repeat. 28th saw 4 green trades on the method I have paused for now:
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@richard-latimer fairly new to trading so take what I say with a pinch of salt but I do LCS at HT I normally look to get in at 5 sometimes at HT if odds are 7 normally get in at about 50 to 55 min
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Been very slack at updating last few days but doesn't really matter. I'm home tomorrow and I'm going to work it all out to start the standard LCS from Saturday.
Only thing I'm undecided on is what to make my maximum lay price to include as many of the trades as possible and give the maximum s/r I can while also ensuring I always have value.
I'm a bit tired now though so that will do for today.
