Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Other than China which isn't going inplay and Superettan (excluded on crapness) tomorrow looks quiet again with only Paraguay of interest.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Should have said before I delete them

It’s ok I downloaded the sheet yesterday so no dramas.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Probably equalise about the same. Not worth sweating over anyway. I’ve given up worrying on stuff like that. Headspace has sorted a lot of my head fuckery out. Ryan recommended it.

Headspace?

Meditation. Sort of. It will be in whatever App Store is on your phone. Worth a go and I thought it was complete bollocks before I tried it

[A Former User]

Wow, just had a read through this thread and it’s a lot to take in. Looks like good work guys

[Richard Latimer]

Should have said before I delete them

[Richard Latimer]

@John-Folan If you need the last 4 fixtures for any records you are starting let me know before I deleted as they didn't qualify for what I'm doing.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Probably equalise about the same. Not worth sweating over anyway. I’ve given up worrying on stuff like that. Headspace has sorted a lot of my head fuckery out. Ryan recommended it.

Headspace?

[John Folan]

Probably equalise about the same. Not worth sweating over anyway. I’ve given up worrying on stuff like that. Headspace has sorted a lot of my head fuckery out. Ryan recommended it.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

Both U.S. games not on betfair. Odds too low on Singapore and Iceland for over 1.5.

But not for lcs. USL games were easy enough to back overs at the bookies. Bet365 hate me at the moment

Of course not for lcs but including low odds games could go either way. Possibly increase s/r. Possibly increase losses as well as wins. I don't have records for this so could go either way.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

Both U.S. games not on betfair. Odds too low on Singapore and Iceland for over 1.5.

But not for lcs. USL games were easy enough to back overs at the bookies. Bet365 hate me at the moment

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

Bear in mind my records will only include those with starting odds high enough to be included or at least those that traded high enough pre-kick-off.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Might go back through and add in the scores for any game that was over 1.5 at half time. See what the strike rate is once the floodgates have opened. May as well wring it for everything we can get

Should separate it out based on fh scores if you do.

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

Both U.S. games not on betfair. Odds too low on Singapore and Iceland for over 1.5.

[John Folan]

Might go back through and add in the scores for any game that was over 1.5 at half time. See what the strike rate is once the floodgates have opened. May as well wring it for everything we can get

[John Folan]

All four listed on the filtered leagues page had second half goals since the 7th . To quote The Rock. ‘You’re Welcome’

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

You've got an incredibly similar strike rate to the over 1.5 from kick off. I still think that will be improved as certain leagues in medium deficit now are discarded.

Mad isn’t it? Two good approaches now. Bring forth the money

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

You've got an incredibly similar strike rate to the over 1.5 from kick off. I still think that will be improved as certain leagues in medium deficit now are discarded.

[John Folan]

Ok so using the filtered league results we have a total of 392 games under 1.5 goals. Of those a whopping 332 had a goal second half with an impressive strike rate of 84.7 % giving us a bit more wiggle room on the max price which goes up to 6.0.

The 0-0's were a strike rate of 82.1% and that is 133 with a goal second half from 162 games.

Filtered leagues are a thing. We all know it. I've done work before in laying odds on favourites at football and the same thing happened. Remarkably very similar in the leagues that underperformed with this.

[John Folan]

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

I think there are some leagues where the teams are too evenly matched and they just don’t score that much. Must be some stats somewhere.

Certainly a contributing factor. Also some leagues may have a great s/r but odds so low it negates that fact.

Will have a play with your filtered ones today and see what it throws up

[Richard Latimer]

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@john-folan said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

@richard-latimer said in Any Hole's A Goal - My Football Trading Portfolio:

The 0-0 data I gave from yesterday was filtered. I'd bet 2nd half goals could be improved using filtered leagues @John-Folan

Another filter would now make sense as the base data shows a healthy profit. League filters are obvious. 2nd divisions seem to be a lot tighter for example. It’s like course filters for horse racing. Can’t be used to polish a turd but can make a diamond sparkle. You only need to squeeze another 8% out of this on the strike rate I reckon. So worth exploring another filter or just league filter the utter cack with a bi monthly review or something.

For me league filters are the most obvious when everything else looks good. Championship for example appeared to be God awful!

Turkey super also rubbish but lower league ok

I think there are some leagues where the teams are too evenly matched and they just don’t score that much. Must be some stats somewhere.

Certainly a contributing factor. Also some leagues may have a great s/r but odds so low it negates that fact.