Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
I think your always thinking too erratically and emotionally about losses. Yes variance happens and its damn hard to time, i think this is what your meaning. Leagues that go on big runs will have a drop back at some stage. Its the leagues that are your biggest data necessity. Your strategy has such a small edge not from data but in terms of odds. The odds you are on require a very good strike rate. A drop off of anything between 5-10% from that break even point at your odds is staggering to the bank. You cannot always be on the good side of variance. This is the reason your having to react to almost every loss in terms of data. You have 1000+ selections but all spread out to so many leagues is soo diluted to come to any conclusions. Be different if that was spread to say 30 or less leagues. I also dont understand the logic behind what you quoted. Having more data on leagues will always be safer than less, the less you have the riskier they are.
i said large averages, not more data. More data is always good.
A team with a really high average is potentially riding the crest of a wave and about to return to the mean. I've seen it constantly.
I'm not geetting rid of anything forever. I'm taking things out of the firing line when it is logical to do so.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
I think your always thinking too erratically and emotionally about losses. Yes variance happens and its damn hard to time, i think this is what your meaning. Leagues that go on big runs will have a drop back at some stage. Its the leagues that are your biggest data necessity. Your strategy has such a small edge not from data but in terms of odds. The odds you are on require a very good strike rate. A drop off of anything between 5-10% from that break even point at your odds is staggering to the bank. You cannot always be on the good side of variance. This is the reason your having to react to almost every loss in terms of data. You have 1000+ selections but all spread out to so many leagues is soo diluted to come to any conclusions. Be different if that was spread to say 30 or less leagues. I also dont understand the logic behind what you quoted. Having more data on leagues will always be safer than less, the less you have the riskier they are.
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@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
La
@stuart-capstick said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
Large averages. We've discussed it before. A return to the mean. It's just difficult to remove them until I've seen firsthand so for a little while I end up with more surprises shall we say.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones.
"In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones."
Sorry, Richard, maybe I have misunderstood you here but that makes no sense.
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-£6.82
Keep the talking to a minimum but I'll have to explaiin something or the winning table above won't make sense. I'm nothing if not honest.
Last trade of the day was Atalanta @ 2-1 HT. Laid 7.4 and it lost. While this was the first 2-1 HT loss I've got on the spreadsheet of profitable leagues at present it was also easy to see how the game was an outlier in terms of statistics. When outliers show themselves to be unprofitable in the first instance I remove them to the tracking bin. They probably never get back what with being an outlier.
Game had Home SH ave scored for home team of 1.8. Only the 2nd time it's happened. First was a win in Serbia now this. 50/50 split and easily removed going forward as untrustworthy.
It's not an unusual I thing. In many instances I have found large numbers to be just as unreliable if not more so than smaller ones. I have no problem accepting losses where there is no discernible way to see what could be done better. This isn't one of those cases.
As an aside, there were 2 succesful FHG, one in Swiss and the other Bolivia. No data for Swiss yet so left it out. Bolivian data not good enough so I left that out too.
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Not touching FHG in Bolivia.
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+£4.76
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I'm going to shut up and let the data do the talking from now:
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Finished updating for the day. Easier since I've stopped tracking the multiple angles and I can always go back to that later when I have more time.
I'll post it all tomorrow but it's bye bye Estonia top league (anything I remove will not be added again until I have at least 20 selections and it's proved to be profitable.
I'm also saying goodbye in the same fashion to France Ligue 1 for FHG as that's proving to be quite poor.
Tke out those and it was a good day. Of course we can't do that so we learn from our lessons.
Tomorrow is:
Norwegian lower leagues - 26 prev selections
Poland Div 1 (no selections so I'll leave be for now)
Estonia Esiliiga - 10 selections, no losses
Spain Laliga - 5 selections, no losses - Big league so I'll go with that one -
Today wasn't exactly the bounce back I'd hoped for but it didn't really lose a lot more despite 3 losses. Of those only a FHG in PSG is really something I wouldn't do again. Will detail it all later or tomorrow.
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@richard-latimer exactly im not saying this wont come good but nits not making you any profit long term yet. In the last 3 monthsd you have tried 2 different strats both of which are complex and both of which aren't making profit. In that time you could have compounded your bank with the others strats mentioned and be making bank. In the background continue with this until you have the leagues setup. Otherwise you are just throwing money into the unknown. Anyway im never gonna change your mind and youll be defensive but years after year your defensive, might be time to take a look and see how to tweak for the short term. This strategy can keep[ going in background and just make bank with the good strats. Its common sense mate, especially with you setting a next easter deadline for this to work. Im gonna stop now cause if you cant see it right now then you never will so i dont want to come across as slagging etc, im here trying to help shine light. Your deposits are growing the bank but they arent growing the profit they are growing the losses. This isnt the time to be stubborn. Just make bank and test this in background till next easter and youll know what leagues and odds to use.
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Now I'm going quiet again haha!
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@Darri I feel I should just add that after checking my phone which goes back 3 months it is actually only -£7.01 since 24 June. While not great, before yesterday it was obviously up for quite a bit for that period of tiime.
I am most definitely not looking at ver greater losses right now. I'm just experiencing a setback and making necessary amendments re leagues to get me over the bumps.
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Going to stay quiet today and just get on with my trades. It's all up though and has been since last night.
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@darri said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Bank at £123.66
Weekly investment going in as a buffer more than anything. £10.00 instead of £5.00.Bank £133.66
See what Sunday brings.....
We spoke in June and you said to many people if i cant find a way to be profitable by july ill look at other trades. I suggested you look at the btc strategies already on here. Its now september. You have said a few times now your desperate to make as much money and fast as possible to help your family situation. Based on this bank and based on your deposits the loss is now quite significant and your compounding in the wrong direction. I totally understand this might be a sour post after a losing day but how else are we gonna learn? If it was a good day youd not listen.
Have you not thought about doing Ryans 1.5, my LTD or the btc daily selections? Then in the background you can paper trade your strategies until you have the right leagues. If you had been doing mine and ryans for example youd had been in a healthy position. Youd have avoided these losses to bank and grown data on them. You could then perhaps look into starting this up again once you have say 50 games worth of data for each league. Your strategy is very complex in comparison to almost every single good traders strategy on here. Look how simple everyone else is keeping it. If there was ever a time to stop throwing money at something not finished and get making money its now before the main leagues hit filters. Just a suggestion as this is now 3 months since we first suggested it and your losses are increasing, its common sense now. I mean how on earth have you managed to go on such a good run 30 odd game runs and still be making a loss. Your strategy is not ready to be traded and there are ready strategies that are doing better right now. They are also miles easier to manage.
Thanks Darri. Recently so much of what you've said has made a difference. I did change though. This is the change. I simply changed early.
Now I need to see this through. Last month was a very healthy profit.
This month was going in the right direction until yesterday. I know you always mean well but now I simply need to do what's necessary to make it work and see it through.
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@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:
Bank at £123.66
Weekly investment going in as a buffer more than anything. £10.00 instead of £5.00.Bank £133.66
See what Sunday brings.....
We spoke in June and you said to many people if i cant find a way to be profitable by july ill look at other trades. I suggested you look at the btc strategies already on here. Its now september. You have said a few times now your desperate to make as much money and fast as possible to help your family situation. Based on this bank and based on your deposits the loss is now quite significant and your compounding in the wrong direction. I totally understand this might be a sour post after a losing day but how else are we gonna learn? If it was a good day youd not listen.
Have you not thought about doing Ryans 1.5, my LTD or the btc daily selections? Then in the background you can paper trade your strategies until you have the right leagues. If you had been doing mine and ryans for example youd had been in a healthy position. Youd have avoided these losses to bank and grown data on them. You could then perhaps look into starting this up again once you have say 50 games worth of data for each league. Your strategy is very complex in comparison to almost every single good traders strategy on here. Look how simple everyone else is keeping it. If there was ever a time to stop throwing money at something not finished and get making money its now before the main leagues hit filters. Just a suggestion as this is now 3 months since we first suggested it and your losses are increasing, its common sense now. I mean how on earth have you managed to go on such a good run 30 odd game runs and still be making a loss. Your strategy is not ready to be traded and there are ready strategies that are doing better right now. They are also miles easier to manage.
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Have removed a few leagues while continuing to track. France I'll decide at the time depending onn how the the day is going. It's one of the big leagues but has been poor. PSG v Lyon so who knows.
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Bank at £123.66
Weekly investment going in as a buffer more than anything. £10.00 instead of £5.00.Bank £133.66
See what Sunday brings.....
