Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Lay Under 1.5:
Price requirements (5 mins prior)
NET 5.1-6.0
MEX 4.0-11.0 -
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Lay Away:
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
No overs tonight
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A sprig of relief:
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Complete transparency:
This really is not what I needed in March!!
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So I stayed out of the Danish game as odds appeared too low. A stagnant 0-0 FH was followed by 6 goals.
Then went 1/2 on the others.
But at least the away lay was 0-0.
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ffs....another losing day. It's funny because people think of the Eerste as being this massive glut of goals but my results are really up and down there other than a very small sweet spot between odds of 5.1 and 6.0 now.
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Away Lays:
This is the only likely qualifier for Mon night/Tue morning.
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Moving on....
Gonna need the Denmark game to start over 4.2 before I even consider it. Preferably 4.6+
In Israel the odds look good currently but I'll need it to stay above 3.8 if I'm going to get involved.
Odds in Cambuur need to come down 7.0 or below for me to get involved. -
Away Lays - I expected bumps in the road on this one:
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Awful weekend on the overs. Would have been worse had I not done the work on odds this morning as I at least managed to dodge Nantes and FCSB while only missing one lay in Denmark:
A long climb back for March with the Interlul just around the corner too.
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I'm doing a lot of work with odds and leagues. Forgot to post in here but I'm not trading any Danish Superliga games under 4.6 odds. Aarhus was under 4.0
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When you're on a run of wins it seems a mere formaaility that the next will win and the next...
When you're coming off a bad day, you see almost no goal mouth action in a first half that ends 0-0 it feels pre-ordained to be another loss.
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France is another frustrating league. Provides quite a few to the raw data but not a massive amount of these qualify. Already increased minimum odds to 4.1 but given the paucity of qualifiers there it still means a couple of losses is damaging to the overall picture there.
On the face of it you'd say why bother but it's a big league and there may be a sweet spot 5.9 and up which has yet to see a loss since last April. PSG was certainly an easier winner while Toulouse toiled and Marseille screwed the pooch at much lower odds.
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Currently dissecting what the hell went on with the overs yesterday. I expected a bumpy ride on the away lays but the overs should be almost complete after pretty much a years tracking.
I've mentioned odds for some leagues prior but what I've been reluctant to do is cut off both top and bottom. In Germany it looks necessary. Some staggeringly high odds that can't be trusted but also....when the odds seem lowish in Germany. Red flag. Defcon 5, avoid that sucker with a barg pole.
The sweet spot is something we talk about plenty in betting. To me it looks like that sweet spot is between 5.9 and 8.4 where not a single loss has been registered in the Bundesliga using my refined data since tracking began last April.
That said, I don't want to cut it off that drastically.....YET. Between 4.9 and 8.4 stops a lot of the blood letting and yesterday it felt like I was metophorically bleeding out in this god damn league!! The league itself cannot simply be ignored for overs as it provides so many selections. It just has to be approached with extreme caution.
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Lay Away:
Caveats:
No odds under 2.7 and no odds above 11.0
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I'm out tonight so posting all of these now. Lay Under 1.5:
Prices
GER 3.15 - 8.4
FRA (Sat) 4.1 - 7.4
SWI 3.15 - 6.6
SER 3.15 - 7.4
MEX 4.0 - 11.0
NET 3.15 - 11.0
DEN 3.15 - 7.4
AUS 3.15 - 7.4
FRA (Sun) 4.1 - 11.0
TUR 3.15 - 7.4
ROM 3.15 - 11.0
ISR 3.15 - 11.0 -
@Richard-Latimer said in Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge:
Lay Away:
Price
DEN, URU 2.7-11.00
MEX 5.0-11.001/2 here and another priced out. Full updates to follow.
