Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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There's nothing to do but get back on the horse. I can't screw up another blueprint and chuck it in the nearest bin! 11 losses has to be an unusual occurrence.......I hope anyway......
Sheet in the process of being updated for Sunday overs although I'll sort results tomorrow.
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Hate it when days like this happen. Keep going over the data and I can't see the wood for the trees!
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Sheet updated for Sat. Couple of overnight games and some early morning Jap games.
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2 team lays as well and they also passed without incident. Good day all round.
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So after a late late goal in Austria the rest went according to plan and it ended in small profit for the overs.
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Sheet updated with tomorrows. 3 early games in Romania to start.
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Small loss on both the overs and the team lays today.
Just the one team lay tomorrow with no overs.
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Maybe not great after all. It seems only the really high odds improve much and improvement gets less and less as price goes down to the point it actually gets worse at the lower end of the scale.
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Just struck up on another potential idea for the team lays although it rather depends on how often the market is available.
So far s/r for HT is almost as good as that at HT. Of course the major difference is that HT odds for an away win will be way lower.
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Sheet updated. 4 team lays and 3 overs for tomorrow.
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Both team lays and overs swept today.
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Way more straight forward on the lays today with 2 routine wins although I must confess yesterday scared me off for now.
The incredible statistic of going unbeaten when leading at HT continues. Now only one loss in 118 selections.
Conversely when losing at HT these really can go anywhere as it was 3 losses on the bounce yesterday.
Overs today very good until the end but still a little bit of profit.
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I've updated the main system page for lays and yesterday puts an interesting spin on things.
Profit down from over 30pts to 23 but with outlay of over 900 to get there.
Conversely the overs which I was struggling to continue monitoring with a few tweaks here and there have seemingly overtaken the lays.
By upping % required of goals scored and conceded to 65% for each team and by removing odds under 1.2 creates s/r of between 81-82% with ave odds around 1.3.
To 1pt level stakes this is still a little inferior to the lays coming in at around 18pts profit. However the outlay for this is just over 300pts so only 1/3 of that on team lays. When outlay tripled to act as a comparison against lays the profit is much more healthy at 56pts.
Of course stake/liability should never be as high on something with s/r of 80% as opposed to 90% but it's food for thought.
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As is always the case after such a bump in the road I can't quite bring myself to update things tonight. Save that for another masochistic day. In the meantime I'll just add selections. Also adding selections for overs.
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Miserable day. Guess these are expected from time to time.....
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What a mental game in Spain. A bugger ending up on the wrong side for sure but 0-2 down, then they get a red, then they score 2 quick goals to level things up......Then they take the lead fairly late in the game and I'm thinking it should be game over.
Then they concede quickly.
Then right at the death when odds for a draw have fallen through the floor they go and concede again to lose 3-4.
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For the 2nd successive day a crap start. Hoping to make it up again - loads more to come.
Last loser was another early season game in Japan but looking through the first 3 matches that came up with 100% wins in first 3 home games came in so still 3 wins to 1 loss there.
Most annoying bugbear is due to it starting at 6:00 am I had to put in a price before bed and I'm not sure it was the optimum.
Nevermind!
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Now 114 recorded selections where home team winning at HT and only 1 of those ended up losing.
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Sheet updated and next game about to start.
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After a large setback this morning the ship righted itself and but for a couple of bumps it was smooth sailing all the way.
