Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

Richard Latimer

Not a good start to the weekend. Beyond looking at South Korea and seeing both leagues are now in the negative there's not a lot to do. Bad results are always going to happen.

Will look at the South Korean leagues again when the season has finished. All other leagues in that region show profit.

Richard Latimer

Kept an eye, it drifted to 1.97:

Richard Latimer

Nothing until Sat it seems other than the one I already posted which I need to keep an eye on the odds. Nothing under 1.9 to lay:

Richard Latimer

@Ryan cheers for that

Ryan

@Richard-Latimer That would be cool that!

Its here: https://btc.thrivecart.com/updateinfo/

If you go to that page it should do what you need

Richard Latimer

@Ryan cheers. When everything comes to fruition we should try and get members together for a session on the beers somewhere.

In the meantime, this seems as good a place as any to ask, but how and where do I update my payment details for monthly subscription? Just recently had to change cards.

Ryan

@Richard-Latimer If you can get anywhere near Maria I would be very happy and it would be happening to a truly amazing dude as well so I wish you all the best.

I am always here to chat as well and help if needed. I like the simplicity of what you are doing.

Richard Latimer

Always nice to have a little in the bank after the first few so I'm not digging further into my own money straight away.

Ultimately I would love to see if I could match the Maria thread but circumstances will dictate me dipping into it way before I get there.

Andy Lucy

@Richard-Latimer Great start cracking weekend thanks for sharing i am following closely with a disciplined pot too

Richard Latimer

Unless the odds rise significantly on Cerro Porteno that's it for the weekend.

I'll take that start.

Richard Latimer

4/4 and plus almost £180. I'll post up the exacts when I've had my coffee.

Just the one tonight which I posted earlier.

Surprisingly, even though the stakes have increased massively I don't really feel any more stress.

Placed my bets and put the phone as far away as possible!

Richard Latimer

Couple more homes to lay:

One overnight and one tomorrow night. Max odds 11.00, min odds 1.9.

My staking calculator is in my trading sheet so people can download/update with their own figures if they want.

Martin

@Richard-Latimer this is so great to read, keep up the good work!

Simon Bates

@Richard-Latimer good luck

Richard Latimer

Well if last year was sort of the year this was meant to be THE year...well it will be. The time for organic growth has gone and the time to put my money where my mouth is has arrived.

I have a number of things I'm working on, all look good so far......but this is the one I have the most faith in RIGHT NOW!

Laying home teams:

Max price 11, lowest price 1.9 (variable staking to make the long odds affordable.)

Now here's the fun part. The training wheels are off. My starting bank for this is £3,000.

This amount of money on it's own won't do a damed thing to make my life run smoothly whether I have it or I don't.

The challenge here is to make as much money as I possibly can in 6 months. There will be no knee jerk reactions. No sudden panic. I WILL NOT BE LOOKING AT GAMES INPLAY AS WHAT'S THE POINT IN STRESSING MYSELF OUT MORE THAN IS NECESSARY.

Stakes are increased daily according to precisely worked out percentages and max liabilities for my s/r against odds. The ratchet is 35%

Percentages are worked out to longest expected losing streak x5 which would bust the bank. That's not going to happen as stake would be reduced..

In any case while accounting for a worst case scenario this is not what I need to concentrate on now. Not sure I would recommend this to anyone else but I have a huge amount of confidence in what I'm doing now due to the fact I've finally simplified things and it's not perfect.

I'm also more confident as in time I will be starting another little pot (probably a small amout from this one) and going live with my next and then my next. Diversify, spread the risk, build total and utter security.

I'll be starting work on a 4th soon as well.

I have taken so much onboard over the last few years that all of a sudden creating a successful system seems somehow.....straight forward all of a sudden.

Richard Latimer

@Akiva-Anderson everything takes me longer than it should Akiva

Akiva Anderson

Halle-f*****g-lujah!

This is great news!! Taken you longer then expected.

You have woken up!

Now be a successful trader

Richard Latimer

@Nick-Segura Ishould also say that it now looks what I was doing is the perfect example of back fitting. I believe the filters can work. They do for everyone else but I was going way beyond the filters combining so many different stats.

? Offline

@Richard-Latimer Mate, I stopped filtering things out and looking at stats a good few months ago. I just keep track of prices for all the markets i am interested in (and more) and if it is value + 10%, I'll trade it. I only trade 23 leagues in total, summer and winter, just the best, most reliable leagues where there is a substantial enough amount of money in the market - I want an accurate picture of what the market anticipates - and that's it, If i beat it, I am in . I can't predict football ( i don't think anyone can) and I am not interested in becoming a goal whisperer. All about probabilities being on my side. I could be trading potatoes it would be the same thing for me, I just beat the price day in day out. I do have a selection process to reduce variance and focus on the best opportunities but it is supra simple - all about the current match up/fixture. It takes me less than a minute to decide whether it is a trade or not - I have put a lot of work in to develop the tools I needed for this to work though and while the premise is simple, it wasn't easy - excel pushed me to my limits . The key is to have a large enough data set (I know you have that) to make sure that what is perceive as value is actually value. That approach completely changed my trading and really improved my wellbeing. I do struggle every now and then, don't get me wrong and I still have a s**t ton of work to do but I have pretty much let go of control and perfection and I am just focused on extracting value from the market. How the probabilities will manifest themselves is beyond my control. I am not giving you advice here but I read a few of your most recent posts and it resonated with me as I went through a similar experience towards September last year. Whichever way you decide to go, I wish you the best man.

Richard Latimer

It's a bitter pill to swallow but I'm moving away from my ultra complicated system which was always nearly done but somehow so far away. All the combinations I played with and ruling out anything which seemed to be on it's own led me to the only place it could really. As soon as I could no longer excuse another dull 0-0 because it wasn't a stat all on it's own.....well I just kept hitting more and more of these dull games.

I tried looking at the data but even with all I had I could not see any way to hugely improve things.

Not going to say I've wasted my time, I've learnt what never to do again. The pursuit of perfection is a poison chalice. All we really need is very good.

Thankfully I've been playing around with the lay aways that's been on set and forget for ages and I've also had an idea around that too.

Not posting anything for now though. Working in the background.