Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Putting this in here rather than football thead as I missed it to post.

Laid Over 2.5 Farense v Lexoes (should have been over 3.5 but I missed it and decided as it was right in the sweet spot it should still be good. 0-0 @ HT right now.

[Richard Latimer]

Feb started off well, bit of a downturn. Overall my data is firing but I'm being sensible. When I don't see enough lines qualifying on every single data point I look at (which means combining some as well) then I'm leaving well alone.

Obviously for each and every week, in theory, there should be a little more I am able to confidently trade until I am eventually able to trade it all. Were it to continue like that I've yet to see a sub 90% month on the current qualifying data as a whole since I started my spreadsheet in April 2022:

Anyway, this was current real time results for Feb.

[Richard Latimer]

January wasn't bad. Can improve but it wasn't bad!

[Richard Latimer]

Posting this in here so it doesn't get lost. Lay Under 1.5:

[Ryan]

@richard-latimer It's important when you feel you get confused to back away, I've always found doing nothing until I am clear is the best way, that and asking for help.

[Richard Latimer]

I'm not going back and updating all from Dec. I have my own records and I also know if was a disappointing and dreadfully slow one. I also know the data continues to head in the right direction. If anything I've been super cautious and missed around 50% of the trades I could take while still managing to hit a loser I probably shouldn't have.

All this fannying around will pay dividends in the end. Just seems like the road gets a little longer every time I think I can see the end. I'm trying to keep things simple enough while continuing to analyse every piece of data I collect.

Look down the rabbit hole without falling in! I confuse myself sometimes and have to come back to it with fresh eyes but ultimately I always find a way to see clearly in the end and progress is being made. Both on the overs and the unders. I'm also looking at whether the overs are profitable over 2.5 - They most definitely are although profit less even taking into account some increased stakes.

Anyway in terms of a starting point and p/l I'm starting afresh from Jan having lost around £60-£70 in the end last year.

I'm -£2.49 from the first couple of days trading in January. Let's see if this is the year........

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

In case it got lost in the ether.

Lay over 3.5 Raith

That was a disappointment

[Richard Latimer]

In case it got lost in the ether.

Lay over 3.5 Raith

[Richard Latimer]

Several qualifiers tomorrow but they've only just qualified in certain areas so I need to leave them as I said above.

[Martin]

@richard-latimer good work as ever!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

End Oct didn't really get any back, it just stopped hemorrhaging:

So the beginning part of Nov kept on the downward slide. I reached the 35% bank reduction and so reset stakes as per rules. From there it began to pick up. There really is no shortcut to this. From the qualifying data I pull I can probably only confidently trade around 50% of that until som gaps in th data are filled in so that things either no longer qualify or undoubtedly qualify.

After resetting stakes I probably gained around 9pts for the rest of the month and in doing so finally hit another green month.

Still a long way to go but hopefully onwards and upwards.

[Richard Latimer]

Finally got another over 1.5 selection for tomorrow:

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5 Helmond Sport

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard I haven't been down that road for a while.

Essentially I think there's a sweet spot in every data set. Not too high, not too low.

[james everard]

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

Biggest piece of advice I can give you if you look for goals. Avoid the really big numbers. They come with an expectation of a return to the mean and big odds.

Also avoid clusters of big numbers together. They are few and far between and don't often the end the way you think they would.

So look for matches that have goals but not too many goals , to find odds that are not too high? Also what should i be looking at backing another goal on say 60mins?

[Richard Latimer]

Lay Under 1.5

Koln
Eintracht Frankfurt

[Richard Latimer]

Biggest piece of advice I can give you if you look for goals. Avoid the really big numbers. They come with an expectation of a return to the mean and big odds.

Also avoid clusters of big numbers together. They are few and far between and don't often the end the way you think they would.

[james everard]

Hardest part mate , will probably look more into the set and forget soon instead

[Richard Latimer]

@james-everard said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

@james-everard said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

@richard-latimer Really hard atm mate i'm in the same boat, and of course the trades your do miss they always seem to win lol

I don't miss any unless I choose to.....and most of those lose. I'v just narrowed it down so much I need to find a way to open it out just a little without losing anything.

I generally write down all the selections for the day , but i can't always trade them all with other stuff going on my life. But i am finding the ones i miss are nearly always nice winners but the matches i trade lose. probably just bad luck on my part lol

This is why I've gone set and forget. These sorts of things really play on my mind!

[james everard]

@richard-latimer said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

@james-everard said in 01/08/22 Starting Bank £413.72 - Current Bank as of end Oct 22 £362.32 so in the red for the first time in months!!:

@richard-latimer Really hard atm mate i'm in the same boat, and of course the trades your do miss they always seem to win lol

I don't miss any unless I choose to.....and most of those lose. I'v just narrowed it down so much I need to find a way to open it out just a little without losing anything.

I generally write down all the selections for the day , but i can't always trade them all with other stuff going on my life. But i am finding the ones i miss are nearly always nice winners but the matches i trade lose. probably just bad luck on my part lol