Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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2/2 tonight including 1 outlier. Another 2 outliers hit too soon. All good for data.
Bank £240.33.
Tomorrow I will be adding more funds (£5 for each week I've not added anything).
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A couple have already fallen by the wayside as non qualifiers but of course theey will be on the main sheet.
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@matt-wood no don't look at league positions. Only whether they are promoted/relegated team and only then if less than 20 matches played in the league which should equate to 10 home/10 away
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Evening Richard, all good I hope.
Forgive me if you have talked about this already or the info is on your posts, I freely admit to not being able to follow all your stuff (more time in the special class needed).
Do you take league position of the two teams in a game into account at all?
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Bit of time to kill today so thought I'd p**s around with my chart and look individual months etc. Interesting reading. Firstly I imagined that the beginning part of the year would have seen more trades as don't have to worry about promoted/relegated but that's just not true from looking at it.
December was sparse last year although only started collecting data midway through. Still, points tally would have averaged aroubd 21pts or more based on average book price.
After that January was similar on around 42pts for the whole month while after that it just continued to get a little better each month eventually hitting 67pts in May.
June was small naturally with only 19-20pts but then surprisingly July and Aug were right back up to over 50pts. Sept hit over 60pts and then Oct, which I did ok from, hit a whopping 141pts!!!
Nov was back at just over 61pts.
Dec so far is hovering around 27pts.
a)gutted I didn't make more out of Oct haha!!
b) there is of course a small caveat with everything at present in that some parts are moving and also I only started tracking the 3pm games at the beginning of this season.
On my stripped back data as is though, there hasn't been close to a losing month......YET.....
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Tomorrow there's nothing and Thursday there's nothing. Friday looking more interesting with the dutch games back on the radar.
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Couple more wins in ENG League One so that's moving ever closer to selection.
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Nothing tomorrow either. Just a few in English leagues to add to the data.
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Nothing for tonight as the 2 on my filter both eliminated due to promotion/relegation.
Empoli at home promoted playing Udinese
Jong Ajax at home playing Emmen relegated.On to Sunday which I've just finished:
France very briefly excluded is now back in the fold. Excluding the draws, which are woeful, France is a very respectable 14/15.
Ostrava and Stuttgart were trades
Anderlecht an outlier which I managed to get onViking and Bodo were trades
Haladas from a league with only a couple of results so farFener and Sampdorai were trades
Mechelen an outlier with goal that came too quickly.On top of this the first trade of the day was an outlier in Hungary which moved things forward by losing and excluding the 3.0 total goals ave on 2-1 scorelines.
My actual record 7/8
Hypothetical trading record 10/10The closer I can get my actual record to the hypothetical record the quicker this can being to show the results it has on paper.
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Making good progress so I should be able to post up Sundays update tomorrow. Couple of potentials for tomorrow but not until the evening so will post that up later too.
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Saturday update finished:
A little different from what I've posted so far but then the whole point of these updates is to see what I could have done differently so as to improve future results.
I've already been through the 2 losses (Verl & Club Brugge) which to me looked like outliers in the sense that they both involved promoted away teams. The overall with the way I look at promoted/relegated teams gives profit but it does appear a few scorelines are beginning to falter there and mostly these can be considered outliers as each scoreline doesn't have many.
On to the positives...
Hoffenheim an outlier and win minutes before I was due to be matched but good for data
3 wins in Wales bringing that league a little closer making the cut.
Sco League 1 - Another win but loads more needed before it becomes a thing.
CZE Liga 1. A high priced home which was just outside of qualifying range based on it not having happened before. Won so a future outlier.
Thun - Would have qualified at the beginning of the day but after the Verl game I had to check things over on the home 1.5 ave. As already detailed I since put the loss down to promoted away team and rather than bench the 6 positives I'd had up to that point it would have actually been a 7th positive.Can't turn the loss into a win but I can fine tune things for the future.
Now to get working on Sunday.....
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Made yesterdays loss back today so as you were.
Bank back up to £230.89
+£10.10 so inc. Friday, a slight profit on the weekend.
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Updating things as normal and I've been waiting for the Austrian top league to throw itself back into contention at some point. What's actually happened is a result from yesterday has actually taken them MUCH further away from doing that now. That league is 16/19 for a s/r of 84%. Well under my cutoff.
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Plenty of potentials and not a single promoted/relegated team to look out for today:
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Something I should have done a while ago is look properly at the matches where promoted/relegated teams were involved. I defintely don't just want to dismiss them as put together it's well over 60 selections and other than a couple of bad apples they perform well.
What most of them are however and how I should be treating them is, outliers. Only the 2-0 HT scoreline has over 10 selections.
From now on, until I can exclude the wheat from the chaff, I'll look at any like this as a (approx) 60 minute entry at lower odds.
If it comes to it and I end up excluding them all one by one so be it.
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@chris-osborne I go 10 games so yeah, not quite at the halfway point for most yet. It's still a consideration for me until every team has played 20 games in a season (10 home, 10 away)
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@richard-latimer At this state in a season surely the fact that a team was promoted or relegated should no longer be a consideration
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In a piece of news which does nothing to change the overall picture it might be a question of promoted teams again in the Verl game (Ger 3. Liga) rather than the 1.5 home ave. Typically enough there was another game at 1.5 today I believe and that one was a winner.
What hadn't happened before today (in almost 1 yr) is the home team going behind 0-3 to a promoted away team.
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As with any Saturday it's going to take me a while to make a full update but I want to do as much as I can in advance of that.
Started out well with Erzerum and then came a double in Ger 3. Liga. 1/2 there but the loser was an outlier where I had deliberately got involved at lower odds (4.0) as I've chosen to do in these circumstances so while it was a blow it wasn't that bad and the day still plenty of chance to go well.
The criteria that made this an outlier was home ave of 1.5 (something that seems to be slowly eradicating across most scorelines) on the multipe goals scorelines. It has now been set to 1.6 for the outlier and 1.7 for the non outlier. Hope that makes sense.
At the same time there was a trade on Ferencvaros which came in very quickly.
After that Leverkusen was a quick scorer and Hoffeenheim (another outlier) scored a couple of minutes prior to the trade being matched I would imagine. This was also a vAR check but in truee shithouse style it stood and I was denied.
Last 2 trades were Young Boys and Club Brugge.
Young Boys a win and just when it looked like a profit had been secured going 4-2 from 3-2 VAR reared up again and cancelled this one out.
I was surprised to see that in almost one whole year I only have a 3-2 HT scoreline on 3 occasions before today. That's not to suggest I want to rule them out as I don't. The whole point of blocking these high scoring ones together is they happen so infrequently that any data on it's own is almost worthless. Together there are plenty and the s/r is good.
That said, I find it infinitely better to remove certain things from the firing line before they happen again rather than wait until after like I may have done in the past.
The thing with this game is it's the only 3-2 scoreline where the away team had been promoted to a new league. For now I will exclude these with the potential that one day it could be re-included.
This does nothing to today but I'm always working on how to improve going forward.
Fact is a good day tomorrow and I'm back in front for the month. Before today was on a good run so time to pick it up again.
Bank £220.79
-£10.75 for the day -
VAR screwed a profit today and set the bank back a little. Update to come later.
