Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

In the process of looking at tomorrows:

Lousiville looks like it's going to be a FHG. Match due to start in half hour.

Laid under 0.5 FH @ 3.95
Stake £1.74

[Richard Latimer]

In the process of looking at tomorrows:

Lousiville looks like it's going to be a FHG. Match due to start in half hour.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer all good mate, your reply just reaffirms what iv been saying. You have an answer for everything, which is either good for you being so focussed or bad in your tunnel visioned. We both have stubborn personalities which i assume gets us both in trouble in and out of trading at times. Only a good thing when we are right especially with money. So i hope in time you make this work for yourself. You have deposited your way to £139.91 as you have only added £5 since last post. So these are only just in profit. But for the first time a glimmer of hope as its now not in the red. However given the prices you are trading your only a few losses away from entering the red zone. Its the hard part of SHGs if you mess up on data a couple times. I did that last month. Your also having watchlists of +30 games some weekends! I mean how thats manageable long term i dont know, hopefully in time youll eliminate leagues enough so that doesnt become bigger, especially when main leagues pick up. You have been posting about some games in past week or so having almost no liquidity so you can clearly see that some are pointless building data on. Iv said this before but this time i mean it, ill stop pestering you with my opinions or advice. I think this strategy needs time to develop. I think youll get there. I just hope you manage yourself well. That for me isnt something i can know, you are you, i dont know what your lifestyle is or what you want. But all i see is me a few years ago staring at a good strategy with way too many games to manage. This way of trading just creates burnout and makes you not focus on yourself and family/friends. Ill look to keep updated and i hope this works and this month repeats lasts, just keep in mind not just mine but others advice, its been pretty consistent on topics.

[Richard Latimer]

Excuse typos

[Richard Latimer]

@darri it's not that ignoring everything I assure you. Wouldn't be on this new path of not for back and forth of recent.

It's more along the lines of taking some stuff on board but also wanting to find my own way. Most scorelines are very similar actually. Certain ones have differences as this is what I've found works.

0-0, 0-1 and 1-0 for example. I find a blanket approach simply does not work for me on these scorelines.

Don't worry about best performing leagues. It's Bundesliga, Serie A and Netherlands by a country mile!

The lower leagues will do me for 1 or 2 years I reckon. If I see 50-£100 available to trade at a given price. That's fine for a long time.

I suppose in some ways I do like to prove people wrong but also when things are questioned it just makes me want to dig deep into the bowels of things and to be fair I think my responses in this case justify the use of those particular leagues.

I made almost £30 last month aside from deposits so wouldn't say I was completely relying on these. That said, they are helping me build quicker in this early stage. I'm never putting in more than £5 a week either.

I enjoy the constructive criticism so please don't stop. It helps me focus better. My system wouldn't be what it is without it.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer i know it probably feels like people have given you criticism and you have seen it as i need to prove them wrong, but please believe that those who have, have done it in a constructive way. They havent just said this wont work. Personally iv thought about this and im growing more of the opinion to just leave my opinion out or advice as you dont really want it. I think your way to trade will come as a result of ups and downs and eventually youll find your feet, slowly it seems you are, despite these runs still relying on deposits rather than p/l right now to grow the bank but tweaks here and there will hopefully correct that on your journey. Just dont think that you need to be proving people wrong, do this only for yourself. I was the same when people offered advice i was like no i can see my way works long term. Maybe we are the same in that regard and hopefully this happens here that you turn the same corner. But dont be feeling like your battling against everyone here, they only offered help because they wanted to help you as lets be honest you have struggled over the years to make this work. Think back to the lay the underdog strategy, the advice people gave or the last thing you were developing that was a huge list, all the advice was right.

In terms of a misconception about trading a big list, its because you post a big watchlist full of obscure leagues that has small liquidity. Its leagues that in time you wont be able to trade. Fair enough trade them now, but in time they will need to be taken away, if they are your best performers then in time that devalues your strategy. The list of scenarios and criteria for a game to qualify is quite alot in fact they are almost individual strategies in themselves. Thats what people mean. They are encouraging you to think long term. We both know how hard it is not to make mistakes, i just see you adding complexity to things that could be left so simple.

Dont think people are out to slag you or prove you wrong, that would not sit well with anyone on here, those people dont have a place here. Its just their experience has said dont do x and y and they see you doing those things. I do actually think you will nail something very soon, i hope its this lcs, despite these big runs your still not making the significant gains and relying on deposits, i hope this changes. Just wanted to post to let you know its constructive and not people trying to say your doing it wrong, there is no one way to trade. As iv said iv realised that you are going down your own path and nothing people say will help/hinder this path. But i felt i wanted to reply given your last post and just re affirm the people offering advice are doing it because they have done those things and found them to not be good. Its not us going oh look he is doing x wrongly lets pull him up, its friendly advice. Its not you against us its everyone looking out for each other cause this industry holds no prisoners in terms of being a hard one to grasp and stay in.

[Richard Latimer]

That's it for tonight. 2/2

Cork no good. I don't know whether there is a misconception that I trade everything on the list but it couldn't be further from the truth. If it doesn't 100% meet the criteria I set down for each scoreline @ HT, it's gone!

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 2.5 Waldorf @ 4.9
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.74

2-1

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 2.5 Waldorf @ 4.9
Currently 1-1 HT
Stake £1.74

[Richard Latimer]

The Kakonnen is operating at about 7pts profit from 33 selections
Norwegian lower leagues operating at about 3.3pts from 22 selections
Ger Regional liga leagues around 14pts from 17 selections

No reason not to use these leagues when liquidity is there.

[Richard Latimer]

Here is the revised table:

[Richard Latimer]

@Lee-woodman in terms of looking at leagues with only 20 selelections, for the next year this would absolutely butcher the system but I do certainly take your point. It's evident from looking at each league there are some operating in grey areas. Scottish lower for example.

I think certainly 10 selections and perhaps even 5 in some case gives me an idea of how these leagues are going. Important to note that even with 20 selections, a couple of losers which can happen anywhere at any time could put the league back to square one until it has a few years behind it. I don't expect this to happen in the vast majority though.

Other thing is you have leagues like Denmark which most people trade and it's fair to say these haven't proven themselves at all yet.

Also, these prices are worst case scenarios. In some leagues where profit it good it may be even better and in most where profit is so so or down it could again be much better. Working things out to ave book prices on the SHG gives me a decent idea but that's all it is. Betfair lay price will almost always be better than this.

It may be surprising to some but where there is liquidity in Estonia the current success in that league tells me to keep going. I've always hated the Estonian leagues. I can say it now though, my past systems weren't good enough and just scrapping a bunch of leagues for one that were doing well was often my only answeer. It's quite telling that in this the big leagues are flying. I've NEVER HAD THAT BEFORE EVER!!!!

[Richard Latimer]

Done that now. Biggest beneficiaries were Iceland, Italy Serie A (which now looks even better), Kakkonen and Ger Regionalliga Sudwest (one group a few points worse but one a whole lot better and when you're looking at these leagues I think you need to group them together. To trade one and not another would make no sense as they are on the same level for the country. Same could be said of Norwegian lower leagues.

[Richard Latimer]

As I alluded to last night, there is a simple tweak I can make to the 0-0 scoreline which I'm going to do. It was discussed recently that where things like this are concerned you should just look at the data where you're thinking of tweaking and ask would I do this standalone. The answer is no.

On the data I've analysed it was quite obvious that 0-0 while still making money was definitely the worst performer not necessarily on s/r or numbers of qualifiers but on the ave price losing odds.

I wanted to get to the bottom of this so went looking at just the lower odds to see what materialised. When ave book price for the SHG is under 1.1 the 13 qualifiers it brings up have a 100% success rate. When you then look at just 1.1-.1.12 it adds another 22 selections but with a massive 5 losses. The total for 0-0 is only 10 so half of those losses come at lower odds then I would want.

It also makes it pretty damn easy to exclude anything 1.12 down and bring the s/r and odds rocketing up!

[Richard Latimer]

Ok so I don't know if anyone has taken a look at the figures I put up last night for individual leagues on both the SHG & FHG but now I have a bit of time I can address some things.

Firstly, as you can see, while I have a total of over 100 FHG qualifiers ticking along very well it's incredibly hard to get too much of a league sample at present. These are very spread out and have a very strict/limited criteria.

There are a few leagues in the red but with a maximum of only one loss. Just a question of not having much qualify in each yet. Also, the same rules of shitty leagues doesn't seem to apply fully here.

Chile, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ukraine, Vietnam...all successful so far. Of course it only takes one in each to flip that but the system as a whole is working well.

For the bottom feeding leagues it's quite normal to see 1 or 2 FHG and then both teams play out a dud second half so this doesn't actually surprise me.

Moving on.....

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 2.5 Mainz II

Goals galore in that second half so a win to get baack on track. Odds were 5.9.

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 2.5 Mainz II

[Richard Latimer]

Just throwing these out before bed:

Regionalliga Sudwest has had 10 selections with 9/10 winners. The loser was towards the heavier side but I believe this is one of those 0-0 potential changes I mentioned that I'lll go into more.

Kakkonen Groub B is without loss from 9 and the Irish only has one selection but a winner.

[Richard Latimer]

Waaahhhhh what a fun evenign that was. This was only supposed to take a couple of hours but as it is I've spent all night doing it!! Worth it though and I did notice something which not oonly cuts down selections on 0-0 but increases both profit and s/r.

If it was earlier I'd be going into this and all my findings/thoughts.

But it isn't. I'm bloody tired and so I'll just leave this here tonight and come back to it tomorrow!

[Richard Latimer]

Only potential today is not inplay. A good time to get my league analysis done which I've already started.