Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge
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Broken down the backs had a bit of a poor day losing around 1.7pts but then I ran into 2 0-0 scorelines and a further game with no second half goals at all. There was only 1 outright loss with Clyde beating Peterhead.
Overs was a similar story 1.6pts down. Combined number of 260 across criteria's 5 through 8 not performing well at all but then unlike normal I'm not going to rush to throw the baby out with the bath water when the whole thing is nicely in profit.
As of tomorrow however I'll stick to putting money on the backs and continue tracking the overs.
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Day ended in around a 2pt loss which isn't so bad. But here's the thing. As good as the numbers are for BTTS there are really only a few leagues where you can use it properly.
Liquidity on many leagues is dreadful. So I think I'm going to knock that on the head and concentrate on the rest.
If liquidity ever picks up massively I can re-visit the idea.
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A small blip but finished off strong. Backs profited, Overs and BTTS small loss. Overs with long term data scratched.
Overall for the first real trades with real money it was a small profit.
Todays games start at 10:00 and I've just updated the sheet.
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Nice. Bengalaru didn't let me down either.
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Paradou in Algeria already in with a 1-0 lead @ HT.
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Expect it to go tits up today. I'm re-loading my account haha!!
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I hadn't no but that's a great idea. Thanks.
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Sheet updated for tomorrow. Now that I'm checking BTTS as well it seems like I have quite a few juggling balls in the air. Here's hoping I don't drop them.
4 Backs
2 Overs (short term data)
2 BTTS (short term data)
3 Overs (season long data)Season long data will probably work for BTTS too but not collecting odds for these yet.
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Chart added for BFBS (BTTS)
Trading Spreadsheet linked below
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/3gnk1vku1krkoyfcq37y6/Trading-Bible.xlsx?rlkey=01eqhp8u73s61iy2s814sqfll&dl=0 -
Another win for the backs coming from a goal down at ht.
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Slight correction on today's back. El Raja are the home team and this is backing away. Al Ahli.
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Haha no
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It's difficult to know what the liquidity would have been or prices on betfair but using top odds on oddsportal against all overs selections thus far (57 of them) the BTTS or BFBS as I'm calling it has.....so far......blown everything else out of the water!
Even more impressive is that when applying a 10% commission against each winning selection to make up for using top prices on all.............it's still the most successful strategy by a country mile!
And this would be 100% set and forget!
S/r is 75%,with ROI well over 30%.
I'll create a chart for this later and add a few more bells and whistles.
Thanks for alerting me to this once again @Aderemi-Adesote
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In the process of adding a new sheet for BTTS titled BFBS. Bonus points if anyone can guess acronym haha!!
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@Aderemi-Adesote Following your post I did take a quick look at my overs to see how they fared on the BTTS front. A happy accident that they are doing equally as well if not better.
But then not wholly surprising on second thoughts given my filters are based around the home team being expected to score 2 goals+, the away team to concede that many, the away team to score at least 1 and the home team to concede at least 1.
At some stage I will make these filters public although with the backs it is not quite as simple as taking data from the filters and backing them.
There are calculations to narrow the field so to speak.
From combined goals scored by team in question to those conceded by opponent I calculate the percentage that has gone to each team. The same is done in the case of those conceded by team in question and by said opponent. Finally the same is done for wins by backed team and opponent so I can take percentages of these as well.
And then.....
Before a qualifier becomes permanent I need to make sure they have won a great enough % of their games rather than just a high percentage in comparison to the opposition.
It's working so far.
I will definitely keep an eye on the BTTS side of things though.
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This is my own set of filters. For what it's worth I've not managed to find any btts thus far although perhaps my overs could fit the bill. The backs would be a semi trade while overs are set and forget.
There is a wealth of info here so have a look on @Martin-Futter thread or the daily football thread.
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Hi Guys anyone could me with a very good draw at half time filters and also BTTS at half time ? what are the parameters to set for home and away teams to make a decent back and forget bet. thanks
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1 back for tomorrow. El Raja playing away in Egypt. Sheet updated.
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0-0 at HT, 2-2 at FT. 1 Bet/Trade, 1 win. On to tomorrow.
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Just Jazira in the UAE tomorrow (season long data) for overs.
