Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Richard Latimer]

Nothing for tonight as the 2 on my filter both eliminated due to promotion/relegation.

Empoli at home promoted playing Udinese
Jong Ajax at home playing Emmen relegated.

On to Sunday which I've just finished:

France very briefly excluded is now back in the fold. Excluding the draws, which are woeful, France is a very respectable 14/15.

Ostrava and Stuttgart were trades
Anderlecht an outlier which I managed to get on

Viking and Bodo were trades
Haladas from a league with only a couple of results so far

Fener and Sampdorai were trades
Mechelen an outlier with goal that came too quickly.

On top of this the first trade of the day was an outlier in Hungary which moved things forward by losing and excluding the 3.0 total goals ave on 2-1 scorelines.

My actual record 7/8
Hypothetical trading record 10/10

The closer I can get my actual record to the hypothetical record the quicker this can being to show the results it has on paper.

[Richard Latimer]

Making good progress so I should be able to post up Sundays update tomorrow. Couple of potentials for tomorrow but not until the evening so will post that up later too.

[Richard Latimer]

Saturday update finished:

A little different from what I've posted so far but then the whole point of these updates is to see what I could have done differently so as to improve future results.

I've already been through the 2 losses (Verl & Club Brugge) which to me looked like outliers in the sense that they both involved promoted away teams. The overall with the way I look at promoted/relegated teams gives profit but it does appear a few scorelines are beginning to falter there and mostly these can be considered outliers as each scoreline doesn't have many.

On to the positives...

Hoffenheim an outlier and win minutes before I was due to be matched but good for data
3 wins in Wales bringing that league a little closer making the cut.
Sco League 1 - Another win but loads more needed before it becomes a thing.
CZE Liga 1. A high priced home which was just outside of qualifying range based on it not having happened before. Won so a future outlier.
Thun - Would have qualified at the beginning of the day but after the Verl game I had to check things over on the home 1.5 ave. As already detailed I since put the loss down to promoted away team and rather than bench the 6 positives I'd had up to that point it would have actually been a 7th positive.

Can't turn the loss into a win but I can fine tune things for the future.

Now to get working on Sunday.....

[Richard Latimer]

Made yesterdays loss back today so as you were.

Bank back up to £230.89

+£10.10 so inc. Friday, a slight profit on the weekend.

[Richard Latimer]

Updating things as normal and I've been waiting for the Austrian top league to throw itself back into contention at some point. What's actually happened is a result from yesterday has actually taken them MUCH further away from doing that now. That league is 16/19 for a s/r of 84%. Well under my cutoff.

[Richard Latimer]

Plenty of potentials and not a single promoted/relegated team to look out for today:

[Richard Latimer]

Something I should have done a while ago is look properly at the matches where promoted/relegated teams were involved. I defintely don't just want to dismiss them as put together it's well over 60 selections and other than a couple of bad apples they perform well.

What most of them are however and how I should be treating them is, outliers. Only the 2-0 HT scoreline has over 10 selections.

From now on, until I can exclude the wheat from the chaff, I'll look at any like this as a (approx) 60 minute entry at lower odds.

If it comes to it and I end up excluding them all one by one so be it.

[Richard Latimer]

@chris-osborne I go 10 games so yeah, not quite at the halfway point for most yet. It's still a consideration for me until every team has played 20 games in a season (10 home, 10 away)

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer At this state in a season surely the fact that a team was promoted or relegated should no longer be a consideration

[Richard Latimer]

In a piece of news which does nothing to change the overall picture it might be a question of promoted teams again in the Verl game (Ger 3. Liga) rather than the 1.5 home ave. Typically enough there was another game at 1.5 today I believe and that one was a winner.

What hadn't happened before today (in almost 1 yr) is the home team going behind 0-3 to a promoted away team.

[Richard Latimer]

As with any Saturday it's going to take me a while to make a full update but I want to do as much as I can in advance of that.

Started out well with Erzerum and then came a double in Ger 3. Liga. 1/2 there but the loser was an outlier where I had deliberately got involved at lower odds (4.0) as I've chosen to do in these circumstances so while it was a blow it wasn't that bad and the day still plenty of chance to go well.

The criteria that made this an outlier was home ave of 1.5 (something that seems to be slowly eradicating across most scorelines) on the multipe goals scorelines. It has now been set to 1.6 for the outlier and 1.7 for the non outlier. Hope that makes sense.

At the same time there was a trade on Ferencvaros which came in very quickly.

After that Leverkusen was a quick scorer and Hoffeenheim (another outlier) scored a couple of minutes prior to the trade being matched I would imagine. This was also a vAR check but in truee shithouse style it stood and I was denied.

Last 2 trades were Young Boys and Club Brugge.

Young Boys a win and just when it looked like a profit had been secured going 4-2 from 3-2 VAR reared up again and cancelled this one out.

I was surprised to see that in almost one whole year I only have a 3-2 HT scoreline on 3 occasions before today. That's not to suggest I want to rule them out as I don't. The whole point of blocking these high scoring ones together is they happen so infrequently that any data on it's own is almost worthless. Together there are plenty and the s/r is good.

That said, I find it infinitely better to remove certain things from the firing line before they happen again rather than wait until after like I may have done in the past.

The thing with this game is it's the only 3-2 scoreline where the away team had been promoted to a new league. For now I will exclude these with the potential that one day it could be re-included.

This does nothing to today but I'm always working on how to improve going forward.

Fact is a good day tomorrow and I'm back in front for the month. Before today was on a good run so time to pick it up again.

Bank £220.79
-£10.75 for the day

[Richard Latimer]

VAR screwed a profit today and set the bank back a little. Update to come later.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

LCS Erzerumspor 2-1 @ 4.4

3-1

[Richard Latimer]

[Richard Latimer]

LCS Erzerumspor 2-1 @ 4.4

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

Goal at the death for Honved.

That's another +£2.69 and bank back up to £231.54

Of course everything can change in one day but so far it's been a good start to Dec despite limited trades so far.

+£10.76

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

Goal at the death for Honved.

[Richard Latimer]

For a Friday my potentials are looking very sparse. Not a single dutch game on there which is unheard of:

A couple of cancelled fixtures too. I literally have one potential.

[Richard Latimer]

Yesterday was +£2.69

Today 2/2 +£5.38

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in Betfair Premium Charge Challenge Commenced 01/08 - Total Investment Since, £184.41 - Current Bank £220.78 (+£6.57 for Nov):

Just these potentials tonight:

Was upstairs changing daughters bed and JUST got back in time for Real Potosi.