Aug 2024 £3000 - ? Bank Challenge

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Intresting stuff Richard, I follow along although most of it goes over my head :).

Quick and probably stupid question, why do you limit the Home goals scored average to 2.7? Is that just a threshold that you have found to be a sweet spot? Just curious as to why you wouldn't just leave that open ended.

Cheers in advance

I looked initially at up to 2.5 I think. The idea being the higher the average isn't always better results. A return to the mean and all that. Then there is the fact that more goals often means higher lay odds. It was about that sweet spot we so often mention.

Then after a while I wanted to see what the actual results showed over this. After 2.7 it becomes/became pretty disappointing and more expensive.

Firstly, higher scoring games at HT seem to do better for SHG with higher scoring averages. My feeling on this is the've already met or beaten the average most times and they're not about to have one of those days in front of goal. A return to the mean can wait for another day.

When the HT scores are low then this can sometimes indicate that the highest of scoring teams are about to have one of those days.

It's just what works from the evidence put in front of me......and there's a lot of evidence building up to be fair. Same with FHG. The higher the average when it goes past a certain point seems to point towards a 0-0 HT rather than a high scoring FH.

That's not to say you won't still get crazy games but there are more hiccups along the way.

Thanks for the reply. I have had similar suspicions forming about some of my data, have lots less than you yet though.

[Richard Latimer]

@matt-wood said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer Intresting stuff Richard, I follow along although most of it goes over my head :).

Quick and probably stupid question, why do you limit the Home goals scored average to 2.7? Is that just a threshold that you have found to be a sweet spot? Just curious as to why you wouldn't just leave that open ended.

Cheers in advance

I looked initially at up to 2.5 I think. The idea being the higher the average isn't always better results. A return to the mean and all that. Then there is the fact that more goals often means higher lay odds. It was about that sweet spot we so often mention.

Then after a while I wanted to see what the actual results showed over this. After 2.7 it becomes/became pretty disappointing and more expensive.

Firstly, higher scoring games at HT seem to do better for SHG with higher scoring averages. My feeling on this is the've already met or beaten the average most times and they're not about to have one of those days in front of goal. A return to the mean can wait for another day.

When the HT scores are low then this can sometimes indicate that the highest of scoring teams are about to have one of those days.

It's just what works from the evidence put in front of me......and there's a lot of evidence building up to be fair. Same with FHG. The higher the average when it goes past a certain point seems to point towards a 0-0 HT rather than a high scoring FH.

That's not to say you won't still get crazy games but there are more hiccups along the way.

[Matt Wood]

@richard-latimer Intresting stuff Richard, I follow along although most of it goes over my head :).

Quick and probably stupid question, why do you limit the Home goals scored average to 2.7? Is that just a threshold that you have found to be a sweet spot? Just curious as to why you wouldn't just leave that open ended.

Cheers in advance

[Richard Latimer]

@jamie-clements ok so first game. Home Utd (now Lion City but not on betfair) vs Albirex Niigata in Singapore. It's 1-0 @ HT but home odds way too high:

I want to see 1.74 max on the 1-0 scoreline.

[Richard Latimer]

The other thing to mention is that I look at the standings on sofascore and want to see 2 things.

a) 4 league games played for each team (a fitness issue is how I look at this one)
b) if less than 20 league games played I click on the teams to check they were in the same league last year so that data is more relevant than if they are playing different strength team.

The exception to this is where home team has been relegated so they are presumably playing weaker teams, away team has been promoted so they are playing tougher teams (system is based around home team onus on scoring or at least trying to score so that games remain open) or both. Home team relegated and away team promoted.

[Richard Latimer]

@jamie-clements this is literally it...both for FHG and SHG:

I'll assess each game in terms of odds initially to see which games could qualify for a FHG. As I use sofascore for my live score notifications it will give you the bet365 price so you can instantly see which games are close enough in price to warrant further checking. I always always always use oddsportal.com for the exact prices. This is the only place I look for odds as it collates ave book price.

So if it's 1.45 or under for the home team across the books and over 0.5 FH goal price is 1.15+ (again this is the ave book price, not betfair price) then I will cross reference the remaining criteria to see if it qualifies.

All games are assessed at HT. I check the ave home odds and over 0.5 2nd half odds on oddsportal as well as the total ave goals, home ave scored and home 2nd half ave scored against the filter.

I won't go higher than 11.0 and I use the variable staking plan as discussed previously.

I'll try and post when I get on stuff today so you can see the thinking behind it and check if you can find it yourself.

[Richard Latimer]

@jamie-clements said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer hi again sorry to bother you trying to set up a filter for lcs do you do a different filter for each score at half time i.e 0-0 then 1-0 and soon thanks

I'll send you my filter but I double check it all with my list of criteria which is why around half or more don't qualify.

[A Former User]

@richard-latimer hi again sorry to bother you trying to set up a filter for lcs do you do a different filter for each score at half time i.e 0-0 then 1-0 and soon thanks

[Richard Latimer]

Back on it tomorrow. I've left Saudis in for now although experience tells me it will be an unmonitored market at best with poor liquidity.

11 potentials all double checked against phone so I won't miss any notifications.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Lay under 1.5 Backa Topola @ 6.4
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97

0-2 and that's all today.
+£1.93

[Richard Latimer]

Lay under 1.5 Backa Topola @ 6.4
Currently 0-1 HT
Stake £1.97

[Richard Latimer]

@dan-mackinnon said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

@richard-latimer I'll be honest, a lot of this sounds interesting but has gone over my head. Surely if the SR stays the same, but the winning streak increases, the losing streaks become more frequent? You'll only ever win 93.5 out of 100 or 93,500 out of 100,000. Is this more to do with variance and random sequencing?

The longest losing streaks do get longer but it's percentages of very small numbers where as winning streaks are percentages of big numbers. Where your longest expected losing streak goes from 4-4.2 in 90k of trades your longest expected win streak goes from something like 108-148.

I'm no Will Hunting either but I believe the calculation. Statistics fascinate me!

[Dan MacKinnon]

@richard-latimer I'll be honest, a lot of this sounds interesting but has gone over my head. Surely if the SR stays the same, but the winning streak increases, the losing streaks become more frequent? You'll only ever win 93.5 out of 100 or 93,500 out of 100,000. Is this more to do with variance and random sequencing?

[Richard Latimer]

On the subject of longest expected win streaks I've just been playing around with the formula and it seems that, for the percentage of 93.52% I have right now from 849 trades, 64 is a little on the lower side than I thought it would be.

These are all excellent tools to have as it shows you what COULD be just around the corner if thes/r were to maintain.

Longest expected win streak from current data is actually 86.

Never get complacent though!

Longest expected losing streak is still 3 and I've already hit or come close to hitting that. The good news is it never really deteriorates from here. 100,000 trades at 93.52% is still only 4 on the longest expected losing streak. On the longest expected win however it's 148.

I love maths haha!!

[Richard Latimer]

Not doing much this morning so got a little time for some more analysis and I've created another tab on my sheet to keep an eye on the the frequency and longevity of win streaks on the SHG.

Including the one still going, after making a further and necessary tweak last night, there have been 22 win streaks of 15+ since mid Dec last year (I must caveat that with not tracking some of the lower leagues at the beginning as well as also choosing to eliminate/not to track most Sat 3pm games - both of which I will no longer be doing).

The longest of these was 64 matches long!!! The current of 42 is the 3rd longest (and for this one I have been tracking every single game providing the market is inplay and the liquidity is there).

Only 3 of these have been as short as 15 games. Full numbers are as follows:

1 @ 16
2 @ 17
1 @ 18
1 @ 19
1 @ 22
1 @ 23
1 @ 27
3 @ 28
1 @ 29
1 @ 30
1 @ 33
2 @ 35
1 @ 42
1 @ 54
1 @ 64

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

Goals galore in Norway today but not in one of these and the only one I took. Interestingly this league from 3 selections thus far already has 2 losers making up 20% of the losers already.

Norway Obos is actually the first country to be red listed on FHG. 2 losses at this stage means I need on average 7 more wins to break even and 8 to profit. It's also the first league to hit 2 losers in over 100 selections so it makes sense.

[Richard Latimer]

How very un Thursday. Selections:

Only 4 so not massively hard to track. However good habits are important and bad habits hard to break so I've double checked the number against fixtures on my phone. This must be a rule from now on. If I'm busy with life so be it but I don't want to just leave money on the table for sake of it. That's just bad planning.

Fail to prepare and you should prepare to fail. Where did I read that....

Another I like which is something in my daughters song writing book we bought her. A quote from Eisenhower no less.

plans are worthless, but planning is everything.

[Richard Latimer]

Firstly the FHG that never was and the other FHG that never was. One missed and the other missed the target:

Goals galore in Norway today but not in one of these and the only one I took. Interestingly this league from 3 selections thus far already has 2 losers making up 20% of the losers already.

1/2 for the system
0-1 for me

SHG:

6/6 on system plays
Ok so I get it, that's not the way it played out (6/7) but I'm measuring how it performs after the smallest of tweaks as well as recording my own failings (is it really a failing? I'm not sure. More of an observation I've only just been able to make).

For me it was 5/6 having already discussed missing Aalesund for some inexplicable reason.

Today -£8.97

[Richard Latimer]

In the middle of updating I managed to see another very obvious improvement to make right now....aty least until the data develops.

By increasing the required average to 0.9 for a SHG when scorelines are in the crazy range @ HT I secure potentially another 15-20pts while having a a few less selections. They may come back in but lower ave than 0.9 when HT score is crazy appears to be somewhat of an outlier.

It's better to remove it for now and add it back in rather than see this bit of minor data drag the system down. If it's the same for leagues it's the same for criteria.

[Richard Latimer]

@richard-latimer said in The £59.91 - Betfair Premium Charge Challenge:

There are some crazy scores today.

Lay under 6.5 Grotta @ 9.2
Currently 6-0 HT
Stake £1.46

7-0 so no more surprises. Still around a 4pt loss which isn't that bad. Still in credit for the month. Updates to come.